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Started By
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Important July financial events/reports reminders. Am I missing anything?
Posted on 7/4/22 at 5:10 pm
Posted on 7/4/22 at 5:10 pm
OK. After fricking around and wasting my time on the OT and Poli board, time to get serious about $.
July 13 pre-market - CPI report for June. Will inflation be higher, lower, or the same?
July 26/27 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What will the Feds do with rates? .75? Higher, lower, same?
July 28 - Fed DSGE model report. Advanced estimate for 2Q GDP. If negative, will an official recession be callled?
I predict higher inflation rate than May. Stocks down.
I predict 1.0 Fed rate hike as a result of above. Stocks really down.
I predict advanced estimate for 2Q GDP to be negative. Recession called. Stock down.
Any thoughts? Am I missing something or wrong on anything?
July 13 pre-market - CPI report for June. Will inflation be higher, lower, or the same?
July 26/27 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What will the Feds do with rates? .75? Higher, lower, same?
July 28 - Fed DSGE model report. Advanced estimate for 2Q GDP. If negative, will an official recession be callled?
I predict higher inflation rate than May. Stocks down.
I predict 1.0 Fed rate hike as a result of above. Stocks really down.
I predict advanced estimate for 2Q GDP to be negative. Recession called. Stock down.
Any thoughts? Am I missing something or wrong on anything?
3
Posted on 7/4/22 at 7:10 pm to Realityintheface
Sounds about right
Posted on 7/4/22 at 7:51 pm to Realityintheface
quote:
July 13 pre-market - CPI report for June. Will inflation be higher, lower, or the same?
Higher by just .1% or .2%. I do think we will start to see a flattening of it sometime over the next 6 months as the recession deepens.
quote:
July 26/27 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What will the Feds do with rates? .75? Higher, lower, same?
Higher by .50. Needs to be by another .75 or 1.00, but I don't think Powell has the guts to do what needs to be done.
quote:
July 28 - Fed DSGE model report. Advanced estimate for 2Q GDP. If negative, will an official recession be callled?
It will be negative but they will refuse to label it a recession until the number is adjusted and finalized in a few months. I'll go out on a limb and say they will not acknowledge a recession until after the midterms.
Posted on 7/5/22 at 10:41 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
I'll go out on a limb and say they will not acknowledge a recession until after the midterms.
They won’t acknowledge a recession until the NBER labels it as such, and that won’t likely come until employment starts to deteriorate considerably.
The technical definition may have already happened in 2Q though.
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:00 am to Realityintheface
July 23 - My birthday
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