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Started By
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Oil prices from here?
Posted on 12/1/22 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 12/1/22 at 1:53 pm
Up or down?
Looks like Europe and Russia are hellbent on their own destruction.
US is transitioning away from oil.
(Wishful thinking)
But short term, due to eroding economic outlook, I say oil trends down.
Looks like Europe and Russia are hellbent on their own destruction.
US is transitioning away from oil.
(Wishful thinking)
But short term, due to eroding economic outlook, I say oil trends down.
7
Posted on 12/1/22 at 2:18 pm to Guntoter1
In the same vein, which of these lines are telling the right story…
While I know USO isn’t a perfect replacement for the price of oil, you can see that it’s had very similar performance to the XLE for the majority of the year - especially the first 6 months. There was a little dislocation in mid June, but that cleared itself up by the end of August. Since 9/1, USO is down 4% while XLE is up over 14%.
Maybe a chance to short XLE and go long USO for those looking for some arbitrage opportunities?
While I know USO isn’t a perfect replacement for the price of oil, you can see that it’s had very similar performance to the XLE for the majority of the year - especially the first 6 months. There was a little dislocation in mid June, but that cleared itself up by the end of August. Since 9/1, USO is down 4% while XLE is up over 14%.
Maybe a chance to short XLE and go long USO for those looking for some arbitrage opportunities?
Posted on 12/1/22 at 7:19 pm to Guntoter1
Too volatile to tell right now. Even the oil producers have no idea what the global demand will be.
Posted on 12/2/22 at 12:52 am to Guntoter1
In what appears to be a looming world wide recession, oil should go down to the $50 range.
However, with the Russia situation and our government’s war on oil, it could be argued that shortages will cause increasing prices, maybe up to $125.
My opinion is that oil will stay in the $75 to $95 range for the next 3 years.
However, with the Russia situation and our government’s war on oil, it could be argued that shortages will cause increasing prices, maybe up to $125.
My opinion is that oil will stay in the $75 to $95 range for the next 3 years.
Posted on 12/2/22 at 5:59 am to slackster
XLE is weakening and will be a good short opportunity. The underlying stocks' multiples are at the highs of their long-term range.
Definitely some froth should be skimmed off.
Definitely some froth should be skimmed off.
Posted on 12/2/22 at 9:05 am to Skippy1013
quote:
$50 range
I'll assign that a 2% chance through 2024. (Government has 100s of millions of barrels of reserves to refill)
quote:
$125
30% chance in '23.
Chances of being able to unload oil for greater that $100/b next year: 80%
Posted on 12/2/22 at 4:11 pm to Guntoter1
Crude oil chart has been following the 10 yr yield.
Both showing head and shoulders top.
Both showing head and shoulders top.
Posted on 12/2/22 at 4:59 pm to Guntoter1
The price per gallon is gonna go up as Biden makes gas illegal but oil stocks still gonna go down
Posted on 12/2/22 at 7:50 pm to Guntoter1
Been building a short position in energy stocks, oil and gas, via long puts for the last couple of weeks. Most of the put options expire mid 23. Energy has lagged this up move the past few weeks. Will continue to add to this at resistance levels. Like the previous posters chart, energy stocks did not make the down move with the price of crude. Potentially funds holding on to the stocks that were winners of ‘22 but will likely rotate out soon. We will see
This post was edited on 12/2/22 at 7:54 pm
Posted on 12/5/22 at 2:29 pm to Guntoter1
quote:
Up or down?
Yes.
For the time being both Supply and Demand seem to have stabilized, but some of that was built on Biden drawing down the SPR for the last 6 months.
Travel normally has a little spike for November and December after dropping from July-August highs, then drops to an annual low from January through February. In other words, Demand should increase some through December but then drop for the next two months. This should keep prices somewhat stable through December (with the more likelihood being a drop due to the price of every other thing still being so high and falling so far behind wages) then seeing a more normal-looking drop in January and February before going back up with Demand in March and then the swapping to summer blends.
This, of course, changes if the war in Ukraine spills out into the rest of Europe or ends.
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