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Game Previews: Noon Games
Posted on 9/16/23 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 9/16/23 at 12:31 pm
Raiders vs. Bills Matchup Summary:
Raiders:
Team Total Projection: Raiders are projected to score 19 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Jimmy Garoppolo:
In his first game with the Raiders, Garoppolo showcased his consistent efficiency, especially against the Broncos. He heavily relied on Jakobi Meyers, who had a significant role in Josh McDaniels' Week 1 game plan, earning a first-read target on an elite 29% of his routes. If Meyers is unavailable due to his concussion, Davante Adams, who had a 24% target rate in Week 1, is expected to be the primary target.
Running Back - Josh Jacobs:
Despite a challenging opener, Jacobs remains a primary focus. He had five carries inside the 10-yard line in the opener but couldn't capitalize on them. However, he handled 21 of 23 (91%) touches in the Raiders' backfield. Jacobs showcased dominance in backfield usage and maintained a strong role in the passing game. He's anticipated to secure high-value touches, making him a strong play for the week.
Receivers:
Davante Adams is expected to see increased targets, especially with Meyers' potential absence. His historical stats on double-digit targets include impressive lines like 7/153/2 and 8/177/2. Hunter Renfrow, Kristian Wilkerson, and DeAndre Carter had limited involvement in Week 1, combining for just one target.
Tight Ends:
Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are sharing playtime, with neither emerging as a clear favorite.
Defense:
The Raiders' defense struggled against the pass last year, ranking lower than all but the Bears in EPA allowed per dropback. In their recent game against a potentially declining Russell Wilson, they ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in dropback success rate.
Bills:
Team Total Projection: Bills are expected to score 27.5 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Josh Allen:
Allen faced challenges against the Jets but is poised for a comeback against the Raiders' defense. Historically, he's had issues against the Jets, but the Raiders' defense provides an ideal environment for a strong performance. Despite three interceptions against the Jets, Allen showed potential, ranking QB5 in success rate behind only notable names like Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert.
Running Back - James Cook:
Cook remains a questionable fantasy starter due to inconsistency. He posted a 35% success rate as per NFL Next Gen stats and had a lower 25% success rate against the Jets. However, Cook showcased potential in the passing game with a 15% target share.
Receivers:
Stefon Diggs remains Allen's top target, with a dominant performance against the Jets and a 33% target share. He's expected to exploit the Raiders' weak secondary. Gabe Davis received implicit criticism from HC Sean McDermott and is considered a risky WR3 option for the week.
Tight Ends:
Dalton Kincaid is being utilized more as a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. He ran 59% of his routes from the slot and 33% from the outside. Despite this, his advanced stats were not particularly impressive, with an 11% TPRR and an 8% first-read target rate. Dawson Knox had a high 78% route participation rate, indicating his significant role in the offense.
Defense:
The Bills' defense showcased strength against the pass but vulnerability against the run. They managed to handle Zach Wilson at QB but struggled against Breece Hall at RB.
Raiders:
Team Total Projection: Raiders are projected to score 19 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Jimmy Garoppolo:
In his first game with the Raiders, Garoppolo showcased his consistent efficiency, especially against the Broncos. He heavily relied on Jakobi Meyers, who had a significant role in Josh McDaniels' Week 1 game plan, earning a first-read target on an elite 29% of his routes. If Meyers is unavailable due to his concussion, Davante Adams, who had a 24% target rate in Week 1, is expected to be the primary target.
Running Back - Josh Jacobs:
Despite a challenging opener, Jacobs remains a primary focus. He had five carries inside the 10-yard line in the opener but couldn't capitalize on them. However, he handled 21 of 23 (91%) touches in the Raiders' backfield. Jacobs showcased dominance in backfield usage and maintained a strong role in the passing game. He's anticipated to secure high-value touches, making him a strong play for the week.
Receivers:
Davante Adams is expected to see increased targets, especially with Meyers' potential absence. His historical stats on double-digit targets include impressive lines like 7/153/2 and 8/177/2. Hunter Renfrow, Kristian Wilkerson, and DeAndre Carter had limited involvement in Week 1, combining for just one target.
Tight Ends:
Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are sharing playtime, with neither emerging as a clear favorite.
Defense:
The Raiders' defense struggled against the pass last year, ranking lower than all but the Bears in EPA allowed per dropback. In their recent game against a potentially declining Russell Wilson, they ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in dropback success rate.
Bills:
Team Total Projection: Bills are expected to score 27.5 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Josh Allen:
Allen faced challenges against the Jets but is poised for a comeback against the Raiders' defense. Historically, he's had issues against the Jets, but the Raiders' defense provides an ideal environment for a strong performance. Despite three interceptions against the Jets, Allen showed potential, ranking QB5 in success rate behind only notable names like Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert.
Running Back - James Cook:
Cook remains a questionable fantasy starter due to inconsistency. He posted a 35% success rate as per NFL Next Gen stats and had a lower 25% success rate against the Jets. However, Cook showcased potential in the passing game with a 15% target share.
Receivers:
Stefon Diggs remains Allen's top target, with a dominant performance against the Jets and a 33% target share. He's expected to exploit the Raiders' weak secondary. Gabe Davis received implicit criticism from HC Sean McDermott and is considered a risky WR3 option for the week.
Tight Ends:
Dalton Kincaid is being utilized more as a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. He ran 59% of his routes from the slot and 33% from the outside. Despite this, his advanced stats were not particularly impressive, with an 11% TPRR and an 8% first-read target rate. Dawson Knox had a high 78% route participation rate, indicating his significant role in the offense.
Defense:
The Bills' defense showcased strength against the pass but vulnerability against the run. They managed to handle Zach Wilson at QB but struggled against Breece Hall at RB.
2
Posted on 9/16/23 at 12:39 pm to CloakedMistborn
Ravens vs. Bengals Matchup Summary:
Ravens:
Team Total Projection: Ravens are projected to score 21.5 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Lamar Jackson:
Jackson had a mixed performance in OC Todd Monken’s debut game. He had only two designed rushes against the Texans, a significant drop from his average of 7.2 in the previous year. Despite this, Jackson remains a boom-bust QB1 for the week.
Running Backs:
Following J.K. Dobbins' Achilles injury, the Ravens' backfield consists of Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, and Melvin Gordon. Post-injury stats showed Hill at 41% snaps and 41% attempts, while Edwards had 38% snaps and 47% attempts. Hill is viewed as a fill-in RB2, but his DFS ceiling is uncertain despite two touchdowns against the Texans.
Receivers:
Zay Flowers had a dominant debut with a 50% target share and 3.53 YPRR. However, his targets were short, with a 2.6 aDOT. Odell Beckham ran every route in Week 1, indicating his role as the primary receiver.
Rashod Bateman showed effectiveness in a part-time role, hinting at a potential increase in his role in the coming weeks.
Tight Ends:
Mark Andrews remains questionable after limited practices. He did however practice in full on Friday. If absent, Isaiah Likely is the potential TE1, but with a low floor. In Andrews' absence in Week 1, Likely played 72% of the offensive snaps but had only one target.
Defense:
The Ravens' defense appears strong, but this assessment may be influenced by their matchup against rookie C.J. Stroud. They are expected to pressure Joe Burrow, similar to how Cleveland did in Week 1.
Bengals:
Team Total Projection: Bengals are projected to score 25 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Joe Burrow:
Burrow had a challenging Week 1, producing the worst EPA per play. However, he remains a promising QB, expected to bounce back against the Ravens.
Running Back - Joe Mixon:
Mixon's role was similar to his 2022 performance, with a 62% snap share and 46% route participation. His inefficiency has been a consistent issue, but he remains a volume-based high-end RB2.
Receivers:
Ja'Marr Chase remains the focal point of the Bengals' passing attack, with a 29% first-read target rate in Week 1. He's an elite play despite the previous week's challenges.
Tee Higgins had strong underlying numbers, with a 98th-percentile air yards share and a 79th-percentile first-read target rate. He's poised for better performances if the Bengals' offense revives.
Defense:
The Bengals' defense had a commendable Week 1, limiting Deshaun Watson to 5.3 yards per pass attempt. However, they did allow Watson to rush for 5/45/1. The defense is expected to challenge Lamar Jackson, especially with the Ravens' offensive line challenges.
Overall Takeaways:
The Ravens are undergoing a shift in offensive strategy under OC Todd Monken, with Lamar Jackson's rushing attempts seeing a significant reduction. The backfield dynamics have also changed due to J.K. Dobbins' injury.
The Bengals had a tough Week 1, with Joe Burrow struggling. However, key players like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain focal points in the passing game and are expected to bounce back against the Ravens' defense.
Both teams have key players with potential injuries (Mark Andrews for the Ravens and Joe Mixon for the Bengals) that could influence the game's dynamics.
Ravens:
Team Total Projection: Ravens are projected to score 21.5 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Lamar Jackson:
Jackson had a mixed performance in OC Todd Monken’s debut game. He had only two designed rushes against the Texans, a significant drop from his average of 7.2 in the previous year. Despite this, Jackson remains a boom-bust QB1 for the week.
Running Backs:
Following J.K. Dobbins' Achilles injury, the Ravens' backfield consists of Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, and Melvin Gordon. Post-injury stats showed Hill at 41% snaps and 41% attempts, while Edwards had 38% snaps and 47% attempts. Hill is viewed as a fill-in RB2, but his DFS ceiling is uncertain despite two touchdowns against the Texans.
Receivers:
Zay Flowers had a dominant debut with a 50% target share and 3.53 YPRR. However, his targets were short, with a 2.6 aDOT. Odell Beckham ran every route in Week 1, indicating his role as the primary receiver.
Rashod Bateman showed effectiveness in a part-time role, hinting at a potential increase in his role in the coming weeks.
Tight Ends:
Mark Andrews remains questionable after limited practices. He did however practice in full on Friday. If absent, Isaiah Likely is the potential TE1, but with a low floor. In Andrews' absence in Week 1, Likely played 72% of the offensive snaps but had only one target.
Defense:
The Ravens' defense appears strong, but this assessment may be influenced by their matchup against rookie C.J. Stroud. They are expected to pressure Joe Burrow, similar to how Cleveland did in Week 1.
Bengals:
Team Total Projection: Bengals are projected to score 25 points.
Offense:
Quarterback - Joe Burrow:
Burrow had a challenging Week 1, producing the worst EPA per play. However, he remains a promising QB, expected to bounce back against the Ravens.
Running Back - Joe Mixon:
Mixon's role was similar to his 2022 performance, with a 62% snap share and 46% route participation. His inefficiency has been a consistent issue, but he remains a volume-based high-end RB2.
Receivers:
Ja'Marr Chase remains the focal point of the Bengals' passing attack, with a 29% first-read target rate in Week 1. He's an elite play despite the previous week's challenges.
Tee Higgins had strong underlying numbers, with a 98th-percentile air yards share and a 79th-percentile first-read target rate. He's poised for better performances if the Bengals' offense revives.
Defense:
The Bengals' defense had a commendable Week 1, limiting Deshaun Watson to 5.3 yards per pass attempt. However, they did allow Watson to rush for 5/45/1. The defense is expected to challenge Lamar Jackson, especially with the Ravens' offensive line challenges.
Overall Takeaways:
The Ravens are undergoing a shift in offensive strategy under OC Todd Monken, with Lamar Jackson's rushing attempts seeing a significant reduction. The backfield dynamics have also changed due to J.K. Dobbins' injury.
The Bengals had a tough Week 1, with Joe Burrow struggling. However, key players like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain focal points in the passing game and are expected to bounce back against the Ravens' defense.
Both teams have key players with potential injuries (Mark Andrews for the Ravens and Joe Mixon for the Bengals) that could influence the game's dynamics.
This post was edited on 9/16/23 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 9/16/23 at 5:42 pm to CloakedMistborn
I’ll say I’m higher on cook and Davis for the bills this week than most are. A get right game at home should be a good script for both. Starting cook in most, and Davis in some .
Posted on 9/17/23 at 2:58 pm to NoSaint
Aged pretty well. Not a bad week between these calls and swift as my 3 biggest gaps from consensus
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