Grok on Cuba's future

Posted on 1/3/26 at 11:17 am

Posted by Auburn1968

NYC

Member since Mar 2019

25568 posts

Posted on 1/3/26 at 11:17 am

And now Venezuela's oil looks like it will be completely unavailable.

Grok is weak on the main cause of Cuba going from one the richest Latin nations to abject failure: Communism.

quote:
Cuba's government is facing its most severe economic and social crisis since the 1959 revolution, driven by a combination of long-standing U.S. sanctions, internal mismanagement, and external shocks like the decline in Venezuelan oil subsidies.

wsj.com

The economy has contracted by about 15% since 2018, with hyperinflation, widespread food shortages, medicine deficits, and daily blackouts lasting 18-20 hours affecting much of the island.

@BobbyApocalypse

Over 2.7 million Cubans—roughly a quarter of the population—have emigrated since 2020, exacerbating labor shortages and brain drain.

wsj.com

Recent measures, such as devaluing the peso in December 2025, aim to stabilize the economy but highlight deepening desperation.

bloomberg.com

Expert analyses and media reports suggest 2026 could be particularly dire, with warnings of an "energy collapse" and no quick fixes in sight, potentially making it the "darkest year" for the country.

en.cibercuba.com

The U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela, a key ally providing subsidized fuel (about 30,000 barrels per day), risks cutting off Cuba's remaining energy lifeline, which could accelerate a total breakdown.

Some observers argue that U.S. policies under both Biden and Trump have effectively isolated Cuba from global commerce, blocking necessary reforms and pushing the state toward failure.

@ryangrim

Others attribute the crisis primarily to 66 years of centralized socialist policies, corruption, and resistance to market-oriented changes seen in places like China or Vietnam.