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Updated - Slackster's Guide to LSU's 2010-2011 Post-Season

Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:34 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:34 pm
Save this thread and check back as the College Football landscape changes over the next 4 weeks. It is
my complimentary, comprehensive guide to LSU’s post-season. It covers about 99.99% of the teams LSU
could face and the places they could “go bowling.” Everything from worst case scenario to best case
scenario, it is all in here. To keep it as simple as possible, it is organized by bowl, so simply find the bowl,
and it will tell you who we could play and how we could get there. I do not expect anyone to read the
entire post, although you are certainly welcome to do so. I will update the guide weekly as the post-
season picture becomes clearer.

Speculation is running rampant across this board with LSU’s potential post-season opponent as well as
questions about where the game will take place. Granted, it is inherently difficult to predict how LSU will
finish the season, much less the rest of the country, but I will try and organize some of the bowl games
and locations where LSU could end up, as well as teams that LSU could hypothetically play, starting with,
for lack of a better work, the “shittiest” bowls. I am confident that LSU will play in one of the following
bowls against one of the following teams, even if there are crazier scenarios. Anything crazier than LSU
losing to ULM will not be covered. If they don’t play in one of these bowls against one of the teams
listed for that bowl, I will take a perma-ban. Also, I hope people use this for reference purposes; instead
of starting the 30th thread in a given week about “What if ….”, just look here for that scenario.

Part I – Non-BCS Bowls


As of now, LSU’s season, record-wise and before a bowl, could end one of 4 ways. There is 1 way to go
11-1, 2 ways to go 10-2, and 1 way to go 9-3. That is it. All 4 of those ways will be covered.

Chick-fil-a Bowl – Atlanta, GA – (9-3 LSU) vs. ACC #2

Probable teams: Miami, Florida State, VT , Maryland, or NC State


How: LSU loses out. Despite the SEC almost certainly getting two teams into the BCS, LSU would be quite a ways down the bowl pecking order. It would really suck to have to go back to Atlanta, but coming off of 2 straight losses, LSU would barely be a Top 20 team, if at all, and likely fall in the Chic-fil-a Bowl’s hands. The ACC is a mess, and the ACC is not getting more than one team in the BCS, so LSU would likely draw the championship game loser or the best team to not make the ACC championship game.

Outback Bowl – Tampa, FL – (9-3 or 10-2 LSU) vs. Big 10 #3


Probable teams: Penn State, Iowa

How: LSU loses out or loses to Arkansas. Although the Cotton, Outback, and Chick-fil-a are supposedly interchangeable among the 3rd-5th teams in the SEC, this is a likely spot for LSU if they lose 1 or 2. If LSU finishes at 10-2 but beats Arkansas, they probably will not fall to the Outback bowl, but rather the Cotton, Capital One, or BCS. Although the Big 10 is a log-jam at the top, Iowa and Penn State are battling for this particular bowl.

Cotton Bowl – Arlington, TX – (10-2 or 11-1 LSU) vs. Big 12 #2

Probable teams: Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Nebraska

How: First, I do not think the Cotton Bowl has some type of agreement to pass on LSU since the season opener in 2011 will be there. It seems as though the only way LSU could get here, however is if LSU falls to Arkansas, who wins out and Bama wins out. That would put one of the three in the BCS, Cap One, and Cotton. I believe Alabama would likely go to the BCS, Akransas to the Capital One, and LSU to the Cotton. LSU would likely draw the #2 team from them Big 12 South or Missouri if they win out. Nebraska is a possibility if they lose the Big 12 CG.

Capital One Bowl – Orlando, FL – (10-2 or 11-1 LSU) vs. Big 10 #2


Probable teams: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa


How: LSU loses to Arkansas, Auburn wins out, Arkansas wins out. Arkansas would probably get a BCS at-large bid. There are 4 spots that will need to be filled by TCU, Boise, SEC team, Pac-10 team, Big-10 team. Someone will get left out, but I doubt it is Arkansas. Or LSU loses to OM, Bama wins out, and Auburn wins SEC CG. Auburn would be in Sugar and Bama would likely go to BCS over LSU. Or, God forbid, Auburn loses the SEC CG at 12-1, almost invariably stays ahead of LSU and in the Top 4 of the BCS even if we win out, and LSU gets stuck at 11-1, #5 in the BCS, and in the Capital One Bowl As far as an opponent, although all 4 of those teams are in the mix for this spot, we will likely get the 1-loss team from the Big 10 that the BCS snubbed, ala Michigan State.
This post was edited on 11/15/10 at 1:33 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:34 pm to
Part II – The BCS

The bowls are listed in order of least-likely to happen:

The Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA – (10-2 or 11-1 LSU) vs. Big 10


Probable teams: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State


How: LSU wins out and Auburn wins out. Or LSU loses to Arkansas, Auburn wins out, MSU beats Arkansas. LSU is second in the SEC at 11-1 or 10-2. Oregon wins out. TCU and Boise drop 2 games (probably the most improbable insane requirement of anything you will read). Rose would have to fill vacancy left by Oregon. If TCU or Boise is in the Top 12 in the BCS, then Rose is contractually obligated to select the higher team to replace Oregon, hence Boise and TCU having to fall off the face of the Earth. If they do, before the Rose selects LSU, they would have to pass on the Pac-10 runner-up, which they have only done one time in history, in 2004 when Mac Brown pleaded for Texas over Cal. After they pass on a Pac-10 team, they would STILL have to get permission from the Sugar Bowl to select LSU because of the BCS by-laws. Another way is if Auburn loses to Bama and LSU is 2nd in the West at 10-2 or 11-1. Auburn may still go to NC, but if not, they go to Sugar; TCU/Boise goes to NC vs Oregon, who wins out. Rose Bowl does not have to pick TCU/Boise any longer, but would still have to pass on Pac-10 runner-up before selecting LSU. Lastly, LSU wins out or drops one, stays in second in the SEC W, Auburn drops one in regular season AND loses SEC CG. LSU and Auburn would both be available for at-large picks, but LSU probably gets the nod. SEC Champ goes to Sugar, TCU/Boise go to NC vs. Oregon, who wins out. Rose Bowl does not have to pick TCU/Boise any longer, but would still have to pass on Pac-10 runner-up before selecting LSU. There are even more scenarios than that but I bet my TigerDroppings membership that they will not happen so we do not have to worry about them. You can see why this is, by far, the most unlikely bowl to which LSU could go.

The Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ – (10-2 or 11-1 LSU) vs. Big 12 or At-large

Probable teams: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Boise State, TCU, Ohio State,
Michigan State, Wisconsin, All of the Big East


How: LSU wins out and Auburn wins out. Or LSU loses to Arkansas, Auburn wins out, MSU beats Arkansas. Another way is if LSU wins out, Auburn drops one to Bama, but still wins SEC CG. Lastly, LSU wins out or drops one, stays in second in the SEC W, Auburn drops one in regular season AND loses SEC CG. LSU and Auburn would both be available for at-large picks, but LSU probably gets the nod. All of the above would likely get LSU into a BCS game. Unless Nebraska wins out AND finds its way into the NC, the Fiesta Bowl will have one at-large spot and has last pick to fill in the Big 12 Champs opponent. Therefore, if the Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowl pass on LSU, the Fiesta Bowl could pick LSU. If Nebraska finds its way into the NC, which is as unlikely as LSU going, the Fiesta Bowl will get first choice, then last choice. They could pick LSU with either of those choices, and use the remaining choice on the non-AQ team not in the NC/Rose Bowl , one of the 1 or 2 loss Big 10 teams, or the Big East champion which is guaranteed a BCS game, but not a particular one. All of the teams in the Big East are still mathematically alive to win the conference, amazingly.
This is more probable than the Rose, but still very, very unlikely.

The Orange Bowl – Miami, FL – (10-2 or 11-1 LSU) vs. ACC


Probable Teams: Miami, Florida State, VT, Maryland, or NC State


How: Same way to qualify as the Fiesta Bowl. Orange Bowl picks after the Sugar Bowl. If the Sugar passes on LSU, then the Orange will have the next pick. If LSU is available, I doubt the Orange Bowl will pass on them. However, that availability is unlikely given the Sugar Bowl has at least one if not two picks before the Orange Bowl gets a say so in the matter. If Auburn finishes with 2 losses and loses the SEC CG, I am sure the Sugar Bowl would pass on LSU against UF/USCe, and the Orange Bowl would gobble them up. If LSU is available for an at-large berth, I doubt they fall any farther than the Orange Bowl. Their opponent would be the ACC champion.

The Sugar Bowl – New Orleans, LA – (10-2, 11-1, or 12-1) vs. SEC or At-Large


Probable teams: Auburn, South Carolina, Boise, TCU, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin,
Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Nebraska


How: The same situation in the Fiesta and Orange Bowls would qualify LSU for an at-large bid. If Auburn wins out or drops one, but still wins the SEC CG, they can still go to the NC. In that case, the Sugar would choose Auburn’s replacement, and if LSU is in 2nd in the SEC, you can bet your house that they will not pass on LSU. The Sugar Bowl is in a peculiar situation because if they get the first pick of the At-Large pool after the NC participants have been replaced. If Auburn goes to the NC, the Sugar Bowl will have the 1st and 3rd picks, or the 2nd and 3rd picks, depending on Auburn’s position in the BCS. If Auburn wins the SEC CG, but does not go to the NC, or Auburn loses one in the regular season and loses the SEC CG, then the Sugar Bowl will still have to find an opponent for the SEC CG winner. Although they are in the same conference, the BCS rules do not prohibit them from playing each other in a bowl game. LSU, as an at-large selection, could face Auburn or South Carolina, although that is unlikely. It is much more likely that LSU is chosen to replace Auburn, and their opponent would be from the at-large pool. The Sugar Bowl would probably think long and hard about Boise, but I think they would ultimately pass on them. TCU is a huge longshot. TCU will probably stay ahead of Boise in the standings which put them in either the Rose Bowl or the NC. The only way the Sugar Bowl will pick Boise is if there are no 1-loss Big-10 teams available AND Nebraska wins the Big 12. If Nebraska wins out but loses the Big 12, I think the Sugar Bowl would even choose that match-up over Boise. If both of those are off the table, you will see an LSU v. Boise Sugar Bowl.
This post was edited on 11/15/10 at 1:33 pm
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:37 pm to
Strong work. Appreciate the effort
Posted by Champs
"Platinum Member"
Member since Feb 2008
12504 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:39 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:44 pm to
Part III - BCS National Championship
LSU’s chances took a turn for the worst when Auburn beat UGA because an SEC Championship was truly LSU’s best shot. That being said, they are still in the hunt.

BCS National Championship – Glendale, AZ – (11-1 or 12-1) vs. #1 or #2 in BCS

Probable teams: TCU, Boise State, Auburn, Oregon


How: Auburn loses two games and Oregon loses one. LSU wins out. Those three are all that is required, although that would only give LSU the slightest chance. For LSU to be in the game comfortably, you will need those three to happen along with a Nebraska loss. Boise/TCU loss would be ideal, although LSU probably gets into 2nd without either of them losing. That would leave LSU vs. TCU/Boise and is the most probable NC scenario. No matter what your smartass friend will tell you, LSU can still get there without winning the division or the conference. They can also have a rematch with Auburn, which would require LSU wins out, Oregon loss, TCU loss, and probably a Nebraska loss. LSU would likely have a large enough computer advantage over Boise to where they could win out and still get passed by LSU for the NC. For LSU v. Oregon, Auburn needs to lose two, TCU needs to lose one, and Nebraska probably needs to lose one. Simply put, LSU is not passing TCU without a loss by TCU, so it is “easier” if Oregon and Auburn lose 1 or 2.

That is it. There is the comprehensive list as of 11/11/2010 of all possibilities greater than .01%. Anything not listed was either completely forgotten, or is too absurd to mention. This was a big enough time waster as is

External Reading:

BCS Selection Process
College Football Conference Standings
2009 SEC Bowl Tie-Ins I know it is a year old, but the format stays the same.
This post was edited on 11/15/10 at 1:33 pm
Posted by LongLostTiger
New Mexico
Member since Nov 2010
6 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:44 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/11/10 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

Ghostfacedistiller


Thanks. You jumped in a little soon as I had not posted the third section, but its all good. Feel free to edit your post and quote my Part III to keep in continuous

If not, there will be a litany of posters wanting to castrate me for not mentioning LSU's national championship scenarios.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 8:42 am to
Morning bump.
Posted by Catman88
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
49125 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 9:37 am to
You lost me on the Orange Bowl..

I see this as LSU's most likely destination should we win out and AU wins SECCG but loses to BAMA or UGA and fails to make title game.

But I have no idea what this means:

quote:

If Auburn finishes with 2 losses and loses the SEC
CG, I am sure the Sugar Bowl would pass on LSU against UF/USCe, and the Orange Bowl would gobble
them up.



If AU loses the SECCG then UF/USCe goes to the Sugar. Then why wouldnt the Orange pick up either a 1-2 loss AU or LSU??

Are you saying that Sugar passes on LSU as an at large?
This post was edited on 11/12/10 at 9:41 am
Posted by lashinala
End of 565
Member since Jan 2006
5753 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:25 am to
'Damn strong comprehensive guide' there, slackster.
I guess this is becoming somewhat like 2003, where every game we watch could have some primary, secondary, and tertiary effects on LSU's chances. We just need to take care of business, huh.
I wonder how many LSU fans will be at the AU/UG game.
Posted by fastroper
Tampa, FL
Member since Sep 2010
642 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:33 am to
Thanks slackster! I'm only slightly less not unconfused than before I when I sort of understood what might not happen if something else happened before the thing that doesn't happen does happen...which was the part that wasn't not confusing me. Understand?

Kinda like the first day in Algebra class when the teacher started talking about adding, multiplying, subtracting and dividing letters of the alphabet.

Good stuff, though. Lot of brain work. Those of us with Adult ADD would've given up after the "Part One-Non BCS Bowls" part.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:51 am to
quote:

If AU loses the SECCG then UF/USCe goes to the Sugar. Then why wouldnt the Orange pick up either a 1-2 loss AU or LSU


That is exactly what I said.

quote:

If Auburn finishes with 2 losses and loses the SEC
CG,


Hence, UF/USCe in the Sugar...

quote:

I am sure the Sugar Bowl would pass on LSU against UF/USCe, and the Orange Bowl would gobble
them up.


The Sugar bowl would choose first among the available teams, and they could theoretically choose LSU to play the SEC Champ, but I highly doubt they will do such a thing. The Rose Bowl could potentially come calling for an LSU vs. Big 10 match-up if TCU/Boise goes to the NC, but I strongly feel that the Rose will take Stanford if available, leaving LSU for the Orange/Fiesta. I see no reason that the Orange would pass on LSU vs. ACC Champ.

Sorry if it was confusing the way I originally worded it, but we are both saying the same thing.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:55 am to
quote:

hose of us with Adult ADD


I have it

quote:

"Part One-Non BCS Bowls" part


50mg of Vyvanse keeps me chugging along during the day, however. Once I set my mind do tackling the guide, I worked on it through lunch for about 3 hours. It doesn't seem like it would take that long, but to seriously cover all of the scenarios was not easy. Next week will be much easier to just update and drop the teams from contention. For instance, assuming LSU wins this weekend and short of the NCAA vacating Auburn wins immediately, LSU will be down to 6 possible scenarios to finish the season. 1 at 9-3, 2 at 10-2, 1 at 11-1, 1 at 11-2, and 1 at 12-1. That may eliminate some bowls and the other games around the conference will eliminate some teams. Maintenance will be easy, but putting it together was not. I am glad someone uses it!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 10:57 am to
quote:

I wonder how many LSU fans will be at the AU/UG game.


I will be there in spirit this weekend

In all honesty, I do not find Georgia to be THAT hard to root for, especially when they could help LSU.
Posted by crowbar832001
Member since Dec 2008
3666 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 11:07 am to
Great job. If we don't get the national championship, I hope it is the Sugar Bowl vs Boise St. NonBCS I hope it is the cotton bowl vs whoever. 2 reasons: 1) LSU hasn't played there in a while and 2)the Oregon game will be there next year so it will be a chance to check out the field.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 12:03 pm to
I would say Cowboys Stadium, University of Phoenix Stadium, and The Rose Bowl are three places I would love to see an LSU game. It is not necessarily for the quality of the bowl, but rather the quality of the first two and history of the last one.
Posted by therocketscientist
too far away from Tiger Stadium
Member since Mar 2007
5010 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 12:17 pm to
LSU 31
TCU 27

That's all you need to know
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/12/10 at 3:09 pm to
Bump for TigerWilson88
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 11/15/10 at 1:33 pm to
Updated for games through 11/15/2010
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