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Started By
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Nate Silver Prediction Flashback... Guy knows what he is doing.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 9:59 am
Posted on 11/8/16 at 9:59 am
Nate Silver: Trump, Carson Have ‘About 5%’ Chance of Winning GOP Nomination
Nate Silver: 'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination
Nate... You are as full of shite as the rest of the "experts".
Nate Silver: 'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination
Nate... You are as full of shite as the rest of the "experts".
3
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:00 am to Tridentds
Nate has one person to please:
Nate can spew as much bullshite as he likes as long as that guy with Mickey is happy.
Nate can spew as much bullshite as he likes as long as that guy with Mickey is happy.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:08 am to GumboPot
I know.. I love how they said "ESPN" bought 538... no... ABC/Disney bought it.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:09 am to Tridentds
Well, in roughly 12 hours we'll know if Nate or you win this round.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:09 am to GEAUXmedic
My PredictIt shares are now down $700 today and $1900 overall.
Gulp. Thinking it's going to get worse before it gets better with the phony FL numbers coming out.
Gulp. Thinking it's going to get worse before it gets better with the phony FL numbers coming out.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:15 am to Tridentds
Here's a link to a pretty good podcast with a senior analyst at 538 (his interview is part 2): ThisAmericanLife
It breaks down why Nate (and basically all political pollsters) got Trump very wrong early. Good case study on how established norms can skew our ability to understand the world through statistics, even when all the data we need is right in front of our faces.
Long story short, all the data was right there to indicate that trump would win the primary. But there was also a lot of data (the type that mattered very strongly in prior elections) to indicate that trump would ultimately faulter. End of the day, they made their predictions off the data that mattered in the past over the data that ended up being indicative of the present.
It doesn't make these people full of shite. It makes them statisticians. This short podcast gives a bit of good insight into how they think.
It breaks down why Nate (and basically all political pollsters) got Trump very wrong early. Good case study on how established norms can skew our ability to understand the world through statistics, even when all the data we need is right in front of our faces.
Long story short, all the data was right there to indicate that trump would win the primary. But there was also a lot of data (the type that mattered very strongly in prior elections) to indicate that trump would ultimately faulter. End of the day, they made their predictions off the data that mattered in the past over the data that ended up being indicative of the present.
It doesn't make these people full of shite. It makes them statisticians. This short podcast gives a bit of good insight into how they think.
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