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re: How early is too early to draft Mahomes?
Posted on 8/5/19 at 11:09 am to Neauxla_Tiger
Posted on 8/5/19 at 11:09 am to Neauxla_Tiger
I think Mahomes will be the goat
0
Posted on 8/5/19 at 12:11 pm to Neauxla_Tiger
All very good points and nice analysis. I get it.
Understand, I’m not trying to advocate that anyone SHOULD do it, I’m just presenting the case for why it isn’t some stupid or uninformed strategy if someone DOES decide to.
It’s obviously risky, and you’re banking on Mahomes being the exception to the rule of regression, the way Rodgers was after his initial breakout in 08.
I also understand conventional and proven wisdom is to avoid risk in those early picks.
But I can’t sit here and argue with anyone that feels strongly that everything is set up for Mahomes to continue to play at an elite level far above what even good analysis like your own shows. You are assuming the regression.
Yes, defenses have film on Mahomes. Mahomes is also likely going to be better at studying, breaking down, and attacking defenses himself. He was basically a rookie last year, he’s now a seasoned league MVP without the pressure and uncertainty that comes with being a first time starter in the NFL.
He still has Kelce, an extremely motivated Tyreek Hill, a healthy Watkins (for now
) and a year and offseason working to develop even more chemistry than they displayed last year.
His game is going to evolve and improve, and in this offense his numbers certainly could too.
I’m not sure assuming a reduction in pass attempts is a given, like you said he was only seventh in attempts. Especially seeing as how the first half of last season the offense was feeding Hunt more than they will feed Williams this year.
And the other flaw in the argument is that you aren’t choosing the field over Mahomes, like many seem to believe they are. You are only choosing one or max two guys to try to offset what could be historic production at the position.
Yes if you can take a Ryan or Big Ben in the late rounds, you’ll be sitting pretty. But you just as easily could be the a-hole that got stuck with Cam, Jameis, or Stafford and struggled at the position all year.
Even if you take a mid round guy, assuming you get one that doesn’t disappoint like Brady or even Brees did, you are missing out on many positional players in those rounds with a ton of upside that can offset the lost production at WR or RB the same way the later QBs can offset any difference in production at QB.
Obviously we’ve all preferred to wait on QBs for years, but if you’ve ever owned Manning in 04 or 13, Brady in 07, or Mahomes last year, you understand the appeal of trying to get another guy like that if things look set up for it.
There’s also just the appeal of going away from chalk. At 6, obviously you’re supposed to say ok well I get Nuk or Adams, and then pair him with Mixon or maybe Kelce if I’m feeling frisky.
That’s ok, and some people may enjoy that. After 20+ years of snake drafts I just hate being in that box and am always looking to try something different. Obviously some risks go better than others. I probably have as many playoff births as bottom four finishes, but ultimately it’s more fun for me to take a guy I’m excited to see play and make a potentially historic run than a WR that I can potentially replace with AB or TY in the 2nd and then have an extra shot at a positional sleeper in the mid rounds when you’re trying to pick a QB that you hope will throw 30 TDs.
Anyway, I always like the discussion, and I know for sure I’m going to be excited that I get to root for him against the Jags week 1.
Understand, I’m not trying to advocate that anyone SHOULD do it, I’m just presenting the case for why it isn’t some stupid or uninformed strategy if someone DOES decide to.
It’s obviously risky, and you’re banking on Mahomes being the exception to the rule of regression, the way Rodgers was after his initial breakout in 08.
I also understand conventional and proven wisdom is to avoid risk in those early picks.
But I can’t sit here and argue with anyone that feels strongly that everything is set up for Mahomes to continue to play at an elite level far above what even good analysis like your own shows. You are assuming the regression.
Yes, defenses have film on Mahomes. Mahomes is also likely going to be better at studying, breaking down, and attacking defenses himself. He was basically a rookie last year, he’s now a seasoned league MVP without the pressure and uncertainty that comes with being a first time starter in the NFL.
He still has Kelce, an extremely motivated Tyreek Hill, a healthy Watkins (for now
) and a year and offseason working to develop even more chemistry than they displayed last year. His game is going to evolve and improve, and in this offense his numbers certainly could too.
I’m not sure assuming a reduction in pass attempts is a given, like you said he was only seventh in attempts. Especially seeing as how the first half of last season the offense was feeding Hunt more than they will feed Williams this year.
And the other flaw in the argument is that you aren’t choosing the field over Mahomes, like many seem to believe they are. You are only choosing one or max two guys to try to offset what could be historic production at the position.
Yes if you can take a Ryan or Big Ben in the late rounds, you’ll be sitting pretty. But you just as easily could be the a-hole that got stuck with Cam, Jameis, or Stafford and struggled at the position all year.
Even if you take a mid round guy, assuming you get one that doesn’t disappoint like Brady or even Brees did, you are missing out on many positional players in those rounds with a ton of upside that can offset the lost production at WR or RB the same way the later QBs can offset any difference in production at QB.
Obviously we’ve all preferred to wait on QBs for years, but if you’ve ever owned Manning in 04 or 13, Brady in 07, or Mahomes last year, you understand the appeal of trying to get another guy like that if things look set up for it.
There’s also just the appeal of going away from chalk. At 6, obviously you’re supposed to say ok well I get Nuk or Adams, and then pair him with Mixon or maybe Kelce if I’m feeling frisky.
That’s ok, and some people may enjoy that. After 20+ years of snake drafts I just hate being in that box and am always looking to try something different. Obviously some risks go better than others. I probably have as many playoff births as bottom four finishes, but ultimately it’s more fun for me to take a guy I’m excited to see play and make a potentially historic run than a WR that I can potentially replace with AB or TY in the 2nd and then have an extra shot at a positional sleeper in the mid rounds when you’re trying to pick a QB that you hope will throw 30 TDs.
Anyway, I always like the discussion, and I know for sure I’m going to be excited that I get to root for him against the Jags week 1.
This post was edited on 8/5/19 at 12:18 pm
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