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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:11 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:11 pm to lsumatt
Arkansas is lucky margin of victory was removed from the computer formulas. It's not fair that they get the same credit for their Ole Miss win as LSU and ALabama do for theirs or that they get the same credit for their Vanderbilt win as Alabama does for theirs.
0
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:12 pm to emmanuellewis
One thing I don't think I've seen anyone mention...Alabama APPEARS to control their destiny if things play out as expected. However, consider this.
If Stanford loses to Notre Dame, which is quite possible, then Oklahoma State would move up one spot in the human polls by virtue. The computers are practically voting Okie State at 2 already, so the gap would close rapidly. Especially if Arkansas loses at LSU, which means the humans move Oklahoma State up 2 spots BEFORE they even play Oklahoma...
If Stanford loses to Notre Dame, which is quite possible, then Oklahoma State would move up one spot in the human polls by virtue. The computers are practically voting Okie State at 2 already, so the gap would close rapidly. Especially if Arkansas loses at LSU, which means the humans move Oklahoma State up 2 spots BEFORE they even play Oklahoma...
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:12 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
LOL at Brad Edwards...."If LSU loses, there is a chance that they stay at #2."
The funny thing is that not 10 minutes earlier, when the BCS Countdown show was on ESPN News (because Nascar ran long), he said flat out that the three way tie breaker would end up #1-Bama, #2 Arky, #3 LSU.....With Bama obviously playing in Atlanta.
I was actually surprised he wasn't as adamant when the show switched over to ESPN.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:18 pm to Link00707
quote:
Alabama APPEARS to control their destiny if things play out as expected
I don't agree. Only LSU Controls it's own destiny.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:19 pm to Link00707
I really think we're looking at LSU-Oklahoma St....just like we were before Friday
this plays out as long as LSU beats Arkansas....and either of: Bama loses to Auburn OR Va Tech loses to anyone
just my opinion though..when the voters realize how close they are to avoiding a rematch with Ok St right there, I suspect several of them will bump up Okie St
ETA: I'm assuming LSU and Okie St both win out
this plays out as long as LSU beats Arkansas....and either of: Bama loses to Auburn OR Va Tech loses to anyone
just my opinion though..when the voters realize how close they are to avoiding a rematch with Ok St right there, I suspect several of them will bump up Okie St
ETA: I'm assuming LSU and Okie St both win out
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:21 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:20 pm to emmanuellewis
quote:
Look, I think OSU loses to OU but, if not, they can make up this ground. The margin is because they are 6 in the Harris (.7885) and USA Today polls (.7837). Even now, they have a higher score than Bama in the computers. If they beat OU, they will likely have be ranked #2 in all of the computers to Bama's #3. They could make up the ground in the polls by Arkansas losing (to us), Va Tech losing (to Virginia or Clemson), and Stanford losing support due to their schedule. If OSU is the consensus 3rd place team, they would need a percentage of people to rank them over Bama (I dont even think it would have to be a high percentage). I think if OSU wins out, they will be in the BCS game.
The voters seem to control everything. If okie St wins and voters don't want the rematch game, they could even jump okie St to 3 without a Stanford or va tech loss.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:23 pm to jdg91878
I really don't think they need to be ranked ahead of Bama. I honestly think that the computers would be enough to push OSU above Bama as long as they're just 3/4 in the human polls, even with Bama at a solid 2.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:23 pm to Ford Frenzy
Here's a potential BCS scenario that would cause even more chaos.
1) LSU beats Arkansas as expected and remains #1.
2) Alabama loses to Auburn. Hilarity ensues.
3) Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma.
4) Virginia Tech loses to Virginia.
5) Notre Dame beats Stanford.
6) Oregon loses to Oregon State.
Then what?
Do Boise State fans jump off a cliff? OU in the title game?
1) LSU beats Arkansas as expected and remains #1.
2) Alabama loses to Auburn. Hilarity ensues.
3) Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma.
4) Virginia Tech loses to Virginia.
5) Notre Dame beats Stanford.
6) Oregon loses to Oregon State.
Then what?
Do Boise State fans jump off a cliff? OU in the title game?This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:24 pm to noladan
These talking heads are just giving opinions and everybody has one. Look at the weekly picks on College Game Day and you realize they are far from perfect. Also, there's no way a "little" bias doesn't factor in and most of us know which way these guys lean!
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:25 pm to noladan
Yeah, I thought it was funny...."There's a chance LSU stays at 2."
Well, yeah, we've all been saying that for the last two weeks.....LSU isn't falling out of the Top2 with a close loss to Arkansas. The computers aren't going to allow it, and with good reason....LSU/Bama/ARky will all have identical records and LSU will have played by far the stronger schedule and have the more impressive overall resume.
Well, yeah, we've all been saying that for the last two weeks.....LSU isn't falling out of the Top2 with a close loss to Arkansas. The computers aren't going to allow it, and with good reason....LSU/Bama/ARky will all have identical records and LSU will have played by far the stronger schedule and have the more impressive overall resume.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:28 pm to stampman
My final $0.02:
We've had 5 teams with chances to beat out Alabama for the NCG go down. Now 1 comes back from the dead and STILL has a chance. But that's it. After Oklahoma State, there's nothing but 2 loss teams (after arky goes down to LSU)
If OU beats OSU, there's no discussion. And I think we all know, that's exactly what's going to happen.
We've had 5 teams with chances to beat out Alabama for the NCG go down. Now 1 comes back from the dead and STILL has a chance. But that's it. After Oklahoma State, there's nothing but 2 loss teams (after arky goes down to LSU)
If OU beats OSU, there's no discussion. And I think we all know, that's exactly what's going to happen.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:28 pm to Deathrider
I'd say if 1 thru 5 happen its Boise or Houston (probably Boise)
Why does everyone think OU is going to beat Okie St.?
wtf has OU done to make anyone believe that? They're probably going to be 7-10 point underdogs on top of that
Why does everyone think OU is going to beat Okie St.?
wtf has OU done to make anyone believe that? They're probably going to be 7-10 point underdogs on top of that
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:30 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:29 pm to stampman
quote:
Also, there's no way a "little" bias doesn't factor in and most of us know which way these guys lean!
Bingo...and FWIW, ...
quote:
Brad Edwards, a University of Alabama graduate and ESPN's BCS analyst
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:29 pm to SLTiger29
Do folks not realize that playing in the SECG, while carrying some risks, is a good thing?. Ohio State fans complained about the advantage that LSU had because they had a longer layoff between their last game and the NC game. One of the problems in the long layoff is that the teams are rusty on the NC game. Playing in the SECCG may be to LSU's advantage.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:31 pm to emmanuellewis
Based on the new BCS Polls, only one team has a shot at finishing ahead of Bama:
Oklahoma State
Needs to beat Oklahoma by at least 21 points (and preferably more) on Dec 3rd
Virginia Tech needs to lose to Virginia (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU)
Stanford needs to lose to Notre Dame (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU)
Alabama needs to have a lackluster game vs Auburn (a very narrow win preferably)
Projected computer polls in this scenario: Oklahoma State .960, Alabama .920 (computers clearly calling for an LSU/Oklahoma State showdown)
Oklahoma State would have to cut the margin between a solid 2nd and solid 3rd human poll ranking by 1/2 of the way, essentially not having to overtake Alabama, but just get close (Within 29 pts for Coaches, 57 pts for Harris). Essentially a minimum of 1/4 of the voters would have to switch their vote from Alabama to Oklahoma State for 2nd place on their ballot.
Oklahoma State
Needs to beat Oklahoma by at least 21 points (and preferably more) on Dec 3rd
Virginia Tech needs to lose to Virginia (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU)
Stanford needs to lose to Notre Dame (sets up for Okie State to be #3 in the human polls BEFORE they play OU)
Alabama needs to have a lackluster game vs Auburn (a very narrow win preferably)
Projected computer polls in this scenario: Oklahoma State .960, Alabama .920 (computers clearly calling for an LSU/Oklahoma State showdown)
Oklahoma State would have to cut the margin between a solid 2nd and solid 3rd human poll ranking by 1/2 of the way, essentially not having to overtake Alabama, but just get close (Within 29 pts for Coaches, 57 pts for Harris). Essentially a minimum of 1/4 of the voters would have to switch their vote from Alabama to Oklahoma State for 2nd place on their ballot.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:33 pm to islstl
OSU really doesn't even need all of that
all they need is for voters to NOT have them 6th..either 3rd or 4th
LSU beating Arky and VT losing coupled with the fact that voters will avoid a rematch when they have these 2 weeks to see how close they really are to avoiding one
all they need is for voters to NOT have them 6th..either 3rd or 4th
LSU beating Arky and VT losing coupled with the fact that voters will avoid a rematch when they have these 2 weeks to see how close they really are to avoiding one
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:34 pm to islstl
Bama losing to Auburn would throw a wrench in the whole thing.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:44 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
"There's a chance LSU stays at 2."
Is anyone not thinking that IF Arkansas beat LSU that Arkansas would be #1 and LSU #2? Then we'd get that rematch. LSU would then be in Bama's situation of just sitting and waiting while Arkansas plays Georgia.
I think LSU is the measuring stick here...LSU beat Bama so they shouldn't jump LSU no matter what.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:44 pm to Deathrider
As far as the possibility of propelling OSU past Bama
If OSU wins
And if all this transpires:
1) LSU beats Ark (removes value from another Bama quality win
2) FSU beats FL (devalues another Bama win)
3) Wisconsin beats PSU (devalues another Bama win)
4) Vandy loses to Wake (same)
It will be razor thin between Bama/OSU after champ week
If OSU wins
And if all this transpires:
1) LSU beats Ark (removes value from another Bama quality win
2) FSU beats FL (devalues another Bama win)
3) Wisconsin beats PSU (devalues another Bama win)
4) Vandy loses to Wake (same)
It will be razor thin between Bama/OSU after champ week
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:45 pm to islstl
If OSU beats OU, then it won't take a lot to pass up Auburn.
They are ahead of Bama in 4/6 computers already. In the Peter Wolfe poll they are behind by an absurdly miniscule 0.025 points. That is likely only because of PSU's win this past weekend. OSU will pass Bama potentially as early as this weekend in that poll without even playing.
OSU only needs to be ahead in 5 of the 6 computers anyhow because the top and bottom score are thrown out anyhow.
They would then need only 25%+1 voters in each poll to put them at #2 and the rest at #3 to pass up Bama.
Bama doesn't even have all of the second place votes right now as it is.
They are ahead of Bama in 4/6 computers already. In the Peter Wolfe poll they are behind by an absurdly miniscule 0.025 points. That is likely only because of PSU's win this past weekend. OSU will pass Bama potentially as early as this weekend in that poll without even playing.
OSU only needs to be ahead in 5 of the 6 computers anyhow because the top and bottom score are thrown out anyhow.
They would then need only 25%+1 voters in each poll to put them at #2 and the rest at #3 to pass up Bama.
Bama doesn't even have all of the second place votes right now as it is.
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