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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:07 pm to CajunFootball
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:07 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
OSU doesn't need to get everyone on their side. They have the computers. They just need a little help from the humans and a VaTech loss
This is still up in the air. Most pundits are saying this is wrong.
I think people are taking the numbers from this week and then piling on points based on what would happen. OSU beating OU.
The problem is, the numbers fluctuate. Bama could gain a lot ground in the computers while OSU is sitting at home. As I stated before, there are 6 computers. 4 have OSU #2. 2 have Alabama at #2. Alabama could gain a computer ranking and split the computers in a tie.
People talk about the quality of the win against OU without the quality of the loss. Also, LSU continuing to win HELPS Alabama in the computers. There's just too much to make up IMO.
Networks will influence it. Remember the GOC part 1 was higher rated than a Superbowl. When money factors in, people and the media start using that clout. I think it's reaching.
Everybody here tonight has really great points and I've thoroughly enjoyed the discussion.
Let's just agree to disagree. My prediction. Alabama/LSU rematch is a lock. More than people think. JMHO though.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 4:10 pm
3
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:16 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
This is still up in the air.
Not its not. 11-1 OSU's computer score WILL be better than Bama's. That is not debatable.If you want to argue that all voters will put Bama over OSU, fine. If you want to argue that voters put Va Tech, Stanford over OSU - go for it. But don't make stuff up that doesn't make sense.
OSU is already ahead of Bama and they have 9-2 OU left on the schedule. A couple of other connected games aren't going to change anything
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:17 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
Alabama/LSU rematch is a lock.
Want to bet on it? We can bet a period length for a ban, that the loser has to post a gif with every post, or what.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:19 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
Alabama/LSU rematch is a lock.
A lock? You will give me 100-1 odds then?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:20 pm to lsumatt
I agree. As long as LSU doesn't get blasted on Friday (and Bama wins) I think they still hold on to, not only the SEC West, but the #1 spot.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:26 pm to lsumatt
Guys I didn't come to flame. I came to talk. No bets. That's just my opinion. Respect it or not is up to you.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:30 pm to RollTideRockStar
Okay, then let me ask you this. Why is it you are of the opinion that Bama will make up ground in the computers when they did not do this when OSU lost?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:37 pm to RollTideRockStar
I just don't understand your insistence that Alabama is "a lock". I am no way claiming the opposite - in fact I continue to say it could go either way. Let's review the facts:
1. Ok State is already up on Alabama in almost all computers. They have computer ranking #6 OU left to play and Bama has #22 AU. All signs to point to OSU having 1 FULL spot on Bama in the computers
2. OSU would then need ~25% of voters to put them above #2 Bama while not being low at #4 or #5 in many/any other ballots. It doesn't seem like a hard sell to some voters to put the Big 12 champ over a team that didn't win its division and already lost to LSU (obviously OSU has its weaknesses too). The Bama Voters would likely still move OSU above Stanford. Va Tech could be a problem for a OSU, but they could easily lose to Clemson and/or Va.
I don't see how anyone can look at those facts and say "OSU has absolutely no chance". I say its way too close to call and every time I write out the facts, I lean more towards OSU's chances
1. Ok State is already up on Alabama in almost all computers. They have computer ranking #6 OU left to play and Bama has #22 AU. All signs to point to OSU having 1 FULL spot on Bama in the computers
2. OSU would then need ~25% of voters to put them above #2 Bama while not being low at #4 or #5 in many/any other ballots. It doesn't seem like a hard sell to some voters to put the Big 12 champ over a team that didn't win its division and already lost to LSU (obviously OSU has its weaknesses too). The Bama Voters would likely still move OSU above Stanford. Va Tech could be a problem for a OSU, but they could easily lose to Clemson and/or Va.
I don't see how anyone can look at those facts and say "OSU has absolutely no chance". I say its way too close to call and every time I write out the facts, I lean more towards OSU's chances
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:42 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
Okay, then let me ask you this. Why is it you are of the opinion that Bama will make up ground in the computers when they did not do this when OSU lost?
OSU lost and they sit and at home for this weekend. Giving 2 weeks for Bama to make up ground. Alabama has the #2 slot in 2 computers already. The OOC scedule strength of the Big 12 is tough to overcome, but other conferences are slipping more and more by the week so it's not really a point where they can gain. OSU's OOC opponents were Tulsa, LA Laf, and Arizona. Those schools keep losing. Arizona plays LA Laf next and Tulsa plays Houston.
LSU is kinda dragging Alabama along with points as they themselves keep winning. VA Tech and Stanford swallowing points from what's left over being above OSU in both polls.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:43 pm to lsumatt
lsumatt
You are the guru of this board.
This is just my opinion sir.
You are the guru of this board.
This is just my opinion sir.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:46 pm to RollTideRockStar
I guess for once you are correct. I think LSUMatt is followed by big time "professionals" he is right more times than the talking heads are.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:46 pm to lsumatt
quote:
I don't see how anyone can look at those facts and say "OSU has absolutely no chance". I say its way too close to call and every time I write out the facts, I lean more towards OSU's chances
I ran the numbers separately in another thread (hadn't seen your updated ones) and came to the same exact conclusion as this. I had been assuming Bama was a lock if they beat Auburn, but this is NOT true.
If Okie St wins and snags 25% of the 2nd place votes plus 75% of the 3rd place votes, it's an absolute tie with Bama for #2.
I'd say that gives Bama a "very likely", but in no way a "lock".
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:46 pm to RollTideRockStar
Lsumatt is the man
Now we need to hear from Hueng Soro!
Now we need to hear from Hueng Soro!
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:47 pm to lsumatt
Are u a math/stats professor?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:47 pm to LSUtigersarefun
engineering
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:48 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
Want to bet on it? We can bet a period length for a ban, that the loser has to post a gif with every post, or what.
The dude's been nothing but cordial. He's a homer just like most of us are.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:50 pm to LSUtigersarefun
quote:
Are u a math/stats professor?
The math isn't that hard once you understand how the formula works. Understanding the intricacies of the computer rankings... well that's something I haven't tried. I don't think the formulas are publicly available.
If you have 100% of the votes in a given poll, you get:
1st - 1.000
2nd - 0.960
3rd - 0.920
...
25th - 0.040
So, assuming Okie St ends up at #3 after 12/3 and a consensus at each position:
Team Coaches/Harris/Computers = composite
Bama #2/#2/#3 = .9466 ([.96+.96+.92]/3)
Okie St #3/#3/#2 = .9333 ([.92+.92+.96]/3)
If Okie St snags 25% of the second place votes:
Bama .94 ([.95+.95+.92]/3)
Okie St .94 ([.93+.93+.96]/3)
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:52 pm to Chicken
My projected computer polls with Arkansas beating LSU (does not include projections for other relevant games like Clemson vs South Carolina, Penn State vs Wisconsin, Oregon vs Oregon State, etc).
LSU = low of .960, high of 1.000, expected .980
Okie State = low of .950, high of 1.000, expected .980
Alabama = low of .880, high of .930, expected .900
Arkansas = low of .880, high of .920, expected .900
Again, the Clemson/SC game is huge as well as others that I did not figure into a final projection, but this is a really good educated guess.
So, given .900 vs .980, that's an entire spot difference in each human poll to counteract that for Arkansas.
Now if you're one of the believers that not one human voter will place Arkansas above Alabama, and that LSU will fall no further than #3, then Arkansas would need every voter to place them 2nd on their ballot and LSU #3 on every ballot.
That is, without question, NOT happening.
In fact, there are going to be between 10 and 25 percent of the voters who keep LSU #1 on their ballot (between 6 to 15 voters in the coaches, and 11 to 29 in the Harris).
The top 3 in the human polls will look like a muddled clusterphuck. Alabama more than likely #1 and LSU and Arkansas fighting it out for #2.
Unless the human voters totally drop the ball on this (which means some of them placing us 4th or even 5th on their ballots), there is no way possible for Arkansas to jump LSU for 2nd in the BCS, even with a win on Friday.
Even in the absolute worst case of LSU being .960 and Arkansas being .920, 3/4 of the voters would have to side with Arkansas over LSU for #2, given the Alabama being #1 and no one placing Arkansas or LSU lower than #3 scenario.
Unless the human voters totally drop the ball on this (which means some of them placing us 4th or even 5th on their ballots), there is no way possible for Arkansas to jump LSU for 2nd in the BCS, even with a win on Friday, unless it is a blowout.
I'd like to get Matt's opinion on all of this.
LSU = low of .960, high of 1.000, expected .980
Okie State = low of .950, high of 1.000, expected .980
Alabama = low of .880, high of .930, expected .900
Arkansas = low of .880, high of .920, expected .900
Again, the Clemson/SC game is huge as well as others that I did not figure into a final projection, but this is a really good educated guess.
So, given .900 vs .980, that's an entire spot difference in each human poll to counteract that for Arkansas.
Now if you're one of the believers that not one human voter will place Arkansas above Alabama, and that LSU will fall no further than #3, then Arkansas would need every voter to place them 2nd on their ballot and LSU #3 on every ballot.
That is, without question, NOT happening.
In fact, there are going to be between 10 and 25 percent of the voters who keep LSU #1 on their ballot (between 6 to 15 voters in the coaches, and 11 to 29 in the Harris).
The top 3 in the human polls will look like a muddled clusterphuck. Alabama more than likely #1 and LSU and Arkansas fighting it out for #2.
Unless the human voters totally drop the ball on this (which means some of them placing us 4th or even 5th on their ballots), there is no way possible for Arkansas to jump LSU for 2nd in the BCS, even with a win on Friday.
Even in the absolute worst case of LSU being .960 and Arkansas being .920, 3/4 of the voters would have to side with Arkansas over LSU for #2, given the Alabama being #1 and no one placing Arkansas or LSU lower than #3 scenario.
Unless the human voters totally drop the ball on this (which means some of them placing us 4th or even 5th on their ballots), there is no way possible for Arkansas to jump LSU for 2nd in the BCS, even with a win on Friday, unless it is a blowout.
I'd like to get Matt's opinion on all of this.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:56 pm to RollTideRockStar
I think you guys are arguing similar points. for the sake of argument let's give LSU, OSU, and Bama wins this coming weekend. If that occurs these are the givens:
- The computer rankings will be LSU, OSU, Bama in that order. Lsumatt is correct that of the factors remaining most of them increase OSU in the computers more than Bama. They are already ahead. If they beat OU it will increase.
Outside of of this thre are some questions with variables.
- will OSU move up in the human polls with a win over OU. If so how much? Will the computer score make up the difference?
- will the human polls drastically rearrange their final poll to get a different matchup.
we can probably figure out the first variable...only so far up they can move...the math should be something we can estimate.
the issue of what the final poll will look like is a total crapshoot. The last time we were here the coaches voted out MICHIGAN. If they will do it to them they will do it to anyone.
- The computer rankings will be LSU, OSU, Bama in that order. Lsumatt is correct that of the factors remaining most of them increase OSU in the computers more than Bama. They are already ahead. If they beat OU it will increase.
Outside of of this thre are some questions with variables.
- will OSU move up in the human polls with a win over OU. If so how much? Will the computer score make up the difference?
- will the human polls drastically rearrange their final poll to get a different matchup.
we can probably figure out the first variable...only so far up they can move...the math should be something we can estimate.
the issue of what the final poll will look like is a total crapshoot. The last time we were here the coaches voted out MICHIGAN. If they will do it to them they will do it to anyone.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:58 pm to islstl
quote:
islstl
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