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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:28 pm to
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:28 pm to
quote:

Why aren't these people just sitting back and saying "I've looked at the math. They will jump Bama if they win out while Bama is sitting at home." ?


Because these people are stupid and suck at math?
Posted by RollTideRockStar
Member since Jan 2010
4477 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:29 pm to
umm...oops. Deleted my post Hold on.

Dang virus
Posted by RollTideRockStar
Member since Jan 2010
4477 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:31 pm to
If the computers are really supposed to throw OSU in the title game no matter what. Why this? Yet another guy. Yet another post showing that victories, not computers are what matter. And it's slim at that.

LINK

quote:

2. Alabama: Just win, baby. Thanks to this past weekend's widespread BCS carnage, the Tide have come all the way back from their home loss to LSU to control their own national championship destiny. Defeat bitter Iron Bowl rivals Auburn this week, and they'll be all but a lock for a national title shot in the event of an LSU win ... and if Arkansas pulls the shocker and the BCS shakeout sends the Tide to Atlanta to face the Dawgs, a win there would do the trick just as well. At this point, it's hard to construct a scenario -- a dominating Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma paired with a lackluster showing vs. Auburn seems the only remotely feasible one -- in which the Tide win out and don't play for it all. - JH


quote:

4. Oklahoma State:This is probably the best Oklahoma State could have hoped for following its loss to Iowa State. The Cowboys caught a huge break on Saturday with Oregon losing, but Oklahoma's loss hurt it as much as it helped to keep the Cowboys in the top four. Now if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma to finish the season, it may not mean as much. In other words, the biggest Auburn and LSU fans next weekend may reside in Stillwater. - Tom Fornelli


Why aren't these people just sitting back and saying "I've looked at the math. They will jump Bama if they win out while Bama is sitting at home." ?
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 7:33 pm
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:33 pm to
Roll Tide - what exactly do you disagree with? That

1. OSU will LIKELY be ahead of Bama in the computers

OR

2. OSU could somehow get 25% of voters to put them above them

Posted by caljammer82
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Member since Dec 2006
789 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:42 pm to
The national media will probably vote Oklahoma State to No.2 if they beat OU and win the Big 12 Championship. I am a firm believer that in order to be in the NC, you should have to win your conference...although I know in 2004 we played OU and they got smoked by Kansas State in the Big 12 CG. Just my opinion.
Posted by RollTideRockStar
Member since Jan 2010
4477 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

1. OSU will LIKELY be ahead of Bama in the computers

OR

2. OSU could somehow get 25% of voters to put them above them


Overall?

I think your #1 COULD only happen IF #2 did.

And it's a stretch at best then. 2/3 > 1/3

And that's only if EVERY aspect of these so called projected computer averages are correct. Which I don't believe are.

Something is obviously missing from the numbers quoted to me here. Based on Alabama winning, LSU winning, OSU winning. But that's not all that affect those ratings. LSU winning pulls Alabama higher. Values of losses. Values of the teams we lost to's losses. So on and so on.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 7:47 pm
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:52 pm to
You have no idea what you are talking about. have fun with this. Let me know how it works out:

Colley Hypothetical
Posted by made4lsu
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2009
6121 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:55 pm to
lsumatt:

If LSU does lose on Friday, are we rooting for OSU to win to keep them ahead of ark in the computers?
Posted by Sid in Lakeshore
Member since Oct 2008
41956 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:55 pm to
If it is true that the BCS formula values quality wins over quality losses, it is definitely true that,"everyone winning out benefits everyone more than BAMA". Their only remaining win will be Auburn. Tech has Okie plus B12 champ. LSU has Arky plus SEC champ. Arky....well they are arky.

BAMA made need Penn State to win out and Arky.
Posted by RollTideRockStar
Member since Jan 2010
4477 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

You have no idea what you are talking about. have fun with this. Let me know how it works out:

Colley Hypothetical


THAT'S your source. Plugging in games like we're playing on playstation?

NVM I'm gone. Have a nice night every1.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
45547 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:00 pm to
liar. You'll be checking every 5 minutes for his next post.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:00 pm to
quote:

THAT'S your source. Plugging in games like we're playing on playstation?


You are an idiot. I have recreated the ENTIRE Colley Matrix with the detailed equations and algorithms and have my own code

He puts this up for up for idiots like you so you can see what happens in different scenarios
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 8:01 pm
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
45547 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:01 pm to
Don't respond to him matt. He is a douche taking shots at you in another thread.
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

Because these people are stupid and suck at math?


this would be correct

mentally lazy
Posted by doublecutter
Member since Oct 2003
7083 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:26 pm to
RockStar, please change your team back to Bama.
Posted by cattus
Member since Jan 2009
15821 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:27 pm to
that's what I was thinking.

Let's not resort to name calling plzzz
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

If it is true that the BCS formula values quality wins over quality losses, it is definitely true that,"everyone winning out benefits everyone more than BAMA". Their only remaining win will be Auburn. Tech has Okie plus B12 champ. LSU has Arky plus SEC champ. Arky....well they are arky.


Big 12 does not have a championship game anymore. They have less than 12 teams and can't have one.

Posted by crimsonsaint
Member since Nov 2009
37785 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

You are an idiot.


Not sure why you're so sensitive. Your entire op is based on assumptions, ifs, mights, coulds, shoulds, woulds, seems, and fathoms. You don't seem real confident in what you posted.

quote:

My Updated Thoughts:


quote:

but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them


quote:

that doesn't seem like a hard sell


quote:

Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama


quote:

I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama.


quote:

But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough).


quote:

It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.


quote:

What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker


quote:

While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores.


quote:

LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do?


quote:

LSU should be fine.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5264 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

THAT'S your source. Plugging in games like we're playing on playstation?


Why does it matter? There are ZERO hypothetical possibilities of games left on the schedule that would keep Bama ahead of OSU if OSU beats Oklahoma. You can have every single team you root for except Oklahoma win, and it won't matter.
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:31 pm to
quote:

If LSU does lose on Friday, are we rooting for OSU to win to keep them ahead of ark in the computers?


Oklahoma State does not play until next weekend vs OU (they have a bye this week).

So they can't affect the BCS outcome if LSU loses to Arkansas this week.

I'm assuming you wanted to know based on LSU being no worse than #2 with a loss to Arky and make it to the SEC CG?
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