re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Posted by lsumatt

Austin

Member since Feb 2005

12812 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:08 pm to Kingpin

quote:
Can I assume that in order to make up for a #6 vote, it would require 3 #2 votes?

Pretty much and I get where you are going.

If Va Tech wins out, that is going to be very tough for Ok State. va tech is ahead of them in a lot of ballots and Va Tech wouldn't really do anything to lose their spot. Ok State may need Va Tech to lose.

I don't think that Stanford/Boise/Houston pose much of a problem though. Historical voting trends and common sense suggest OSU would jump any of those teams even if they are behind them now.

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Posted by crimsonsaint

Member since Nov 2009

37785 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:20 pm to TheSexecutioner

quote:
I was talking about the computer rankings. There are no possibilities that would put Bama in front of OSU there, despite what that other clown says,

So how does it affect the computers if Stanford, VT, and Bama win this weekend while OSU doesn't play anyone?

And which clowns are you talking about? The ones that are highly compensated to do what they do?

I'll assume one of them is Brad Edwards. The guy that probably has millions of dollars worth of software and nerds calculating stats, odds, and possibilities daily.

Posted by Kingpin

Tuscaloosa

Member since Jan 2009

3565 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:21 pm to lsumatt

I appreciate the information.

After the upsets happened this weekend, I posted a thread that appeared to be giving you shite ("What does BCS Rant Guru Matt say now?"). I didn't mean any offense to you. I was just messing with folks that said we were a long shot to get back in it.

Sorry and I hope you won't be mad at me.

I hope OSU loses to OU, so this will all be moot.

I disagree with LSU posters feelings on the probability and cohesiveness of the human element swaying totally toward OSU.

But there's no denying the possibility exists, however remote one believes it is.

Thanks again for the information.

This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 9:24 pm

Posted by lsumatt

Austin

Member since Feb 2005

12812 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:29 pm to Kingpin

quote:
I was just messing with folks that said we were a long shot to get back in it.

You know, the irony is that I have said all year long that there is nothing stopping a rematch from happening and 2006 is a prime example of why it COULD happen. But people rarely look at the big picture and just think the #3 team will move into the #2 slot if the #2 team loses. It isn't that simple.

2 months ago, I would have expected Bama to be a pretty open and shut case for a rematch, especially with the SEC's usual dominance in the computers. But the Big 12 SOS/Computer strength is so strong, I just won't count them out until they all have 2 losses over there

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Posted by Kingpin

Tuscaloosa

Member since Jan 2009

3565 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:36 pm to lsumatt

Do we know if coaches ever leave teams out of their ballot altogether? Or misrank them way down their ballot?

For instance, would there be precedent for Nick Saban to leave OSU off his ballot?

Or for Les Miles to leave Alabama off his ballot?

I think I recall they don't have to reveal the way they voted, but do we occasionally have situations in the past where a team is inexplicably misranked like that?

This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 9:42 pm

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Posted by TotalYatMove

Member since Oct 2010

1687 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:45 pm to Kingpin

quote:
Do we know if coaches ever leave teams out altogether?

I was thinking about this earlier. I'm not sure of the history, but the option is there.

quote:
would there be precedent for Nick Saban to leave OSU off his ballot?

If he thinks it's likely that other voters are skewing their polls to avoid a rematch, I'd say he has somewhat of a legit reason.

quote:
Or for Les Miles to leave Alabama off his ballot?

Not sure why he would do that unless Bama had a shot to go to the game and leave LSU out. He's said he is not against a rematch. Do you guys truly believe that the team and coaches are "scurred" to play Bama as every bama fan on this board has been suggesting of the fans?

Posted by lsumatt

Austin

Member since Feb 2005

12812 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:45 pm to Kingpin

quote:
Do we know if coaches ever leave teams out of their ballot altogether? Or misrank them way down their ballot?

Every year, this is talked about on here and I used to think it would happen. But never have I seen a voter, vote in a way that is clearly unethical. I am guessing if they did they would get kicked out of the poll the next year and possibly sued.

The closest it came was maybe 2004, when Mack Brown voted Cal like #7 when they were #4 or 5 overall. Texas needed to get above Cal to get to the Rose Bowl - and they did.

Posted by tigersruledude

Member since Oct 2005

1718 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:46 pm to lsumatt

So basically this only gets interesting for Bama/OSU if:

- OSU beats OU

- LSU beats Arkansas

- the human polls both have the rankings as LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State in that order.

Those three scenarios all happening is VERY possible...particularly if OSU beats OU by a lot.

If that happens it is POSSIBLE that Oklahoma State could pass Alabama in the BCS rankings based on their computer scores.

I find it interesting that no commentator nationally is mentioning it.

Posted by Kingpin

Tuscaloosa

Member since Jan 2009

3565 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:50 pm to TotalYatMove

No, I didn't mean it that way.

I expect Les to have us at #2.

I was just wondering if other coaches have done stuff like that in the past.

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Posted by Kingpin

Tuscaloosa

Member since Jan 2009

3565 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:53 pm to lsumatt

Thanks. I figured there might be some hesitancy to be too obvious with that because of the hell that would be raised.

Posted by 756

Member since Sep 2004

15842 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:55 pm to Kingpin

and VT needs to lose

Posted by TotalYatMove

Member since Oct 2010

1687 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:56 pm to Kingpin

I know, man. Just bringing a little SECr smack over here.

Obvious poll rigging (if that's what it should be called) is probably unprecedented, but I could see Saban putting OSU at the bottom of the legit window, like #6 or #7. That may be all that is necessary anyway. I could also see Les putting them 2 and 3, just to kind of let it play out on its own.

Posted by Kingpin

Tuscaloosa

Member since Jan 2009

3565 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:00 pm to TotalYatMove

Yeah, they're definitely going at the rear of all the one loss teams on Nick's ballot.

Posted by jdg91878

Do overs+Opinion poll politics =MNC

Member since Oct 2010

3742 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:02 pm to crimsonsaint

quote:
Right the voters will place a team that was a 28 pt favorite and lost to a terrible team over a team that lost by 3 pts in OT to the number 1 ranked team. Makes perfect sense to me. You might get the computers but you ain't getting the voters.

This is a lame argument. So, bama can't win their own conference but shoud get in cause the game to win their conference was close. Not saying bama won't get in, it would just be surprising based on voting trends after 03 when OU got in as a non conf winner. The bottom Line is OSU has a good argument; more quality wins, they will actually win their conference, etc. If Va tech loses, okie ST is in IMO. Good luck regardless and 1 thing is certain: Lsu is the only team controlling destiny.

Posted by purplepylon

NOLA & Laffy

Member since Nov 2005

8331 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:04 pm to Kingpin

quote:
I expect Les to have us at #2.

No doubt. If LSU only needs one #2 vote to stay ahead of Arkansas in the BCS, no way Les keeps his own team out.

Posted by 756

Member since Sep 2004

15842 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:16 pm to purplepylon

if history means anything BAMA will get some kind of ding for not winning or even playing in their conference championship game if LSU wins out

Posted by G4LSU

Member since Jan 2009

2447 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:06 pm to 756

since its starting to come up and hadn't seen the list posted yet.

The USA TODAY Board of Coaches is made up of 59 head coaches at Bowl Subdivision schools. All are members of the American Football Coaches Association. The board for the 2011 season:

Gary Andersen, Utah State;
David Bailiff, Rice;
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech;
Tim Beckman, Toledo;
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe;
Bret Bielema, Wisconsin;
Art Briles, Baylor;
Troy Calhoun, Air Force;
Gene Chizik, Auburn;
Dave Christensen, Wyoming;
Dave Clawson, Bowling Green;
David Cutcliffe, Duke;
Mark Dantonio, Michigan State;
Sonny Dykes, Louisiana Tech;
Jon Embree, Colorado;
Larry Fedora, Southern Miss;
James Franklin, Vanderbilt;
Al Golden, Miami (Fla.),
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest;
Pat Hill, Fresno State;
Brady Hoke, Michigan;
John Holliday, Marshall;
Skip Holtz, South Florida;
Mark Hudspeth, Louisiana-Lafayette;
Rob Ianello, Akron;
Pete Lembo, Ball State;
Mike London, Virginia;
Rocky Long, San Diego State;
Dan McCarney, North Texas;
Mike MacIntyre, San Jose State;
Doug Marrone, Syracuse;
Bronco Mendenhall, Brigham Young;
Les Miles, LSU;
Ken Niumatalolo, Navy;
Tom O'Brien, N.C. State;
Bo Pelini, Nebraska;
Chris Petersen, Boise State;
Gary Pinkel, Missouri;
Larry Porter, Memphis;
Jeff Quinn, Buffalo;
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State;
Mark Richt, Georgia;
Mike Riley, Oregon State;
Nick Saban, Alabama;
Greg Schiano, Rutgers;
David Shaw, Stanford;
Frank Solich, Ohio;
Steve Spurrier, South Carolina;
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee;
Bob Stoops, Oklahoma;
Charlie Strong, Louisville;
Kevin Sumlin, Houston;
Jeff Tedford, California;
Bob Toledo, Tulane;
Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech;
Kyle Whittingham, Utah;
Kevin Wilson, Indiana;
Paul Wulff, Washington State;
Ron Zook, Illinois.

Posted by G4LSU

Member since Jan 2009

2447 posts

Posted on 11/21/11 at 11:08 pm to G4LSU

also since this wont be the final vote we dont get to see who the coaches voted right?

got to imagine some nasty stuff will happen.

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