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Message
re: Breaking down LSU and Oregon
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:29 pm to Florida225
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:29 pm to Florida225
Oregon doesn't stand a chance against LSU for one reason. Oregon's offense relies on the other defense self-destructing. This is why Oregon almost walked out of the Auburn game with 11 points. At some point, when you're playing upper SEC defenses that have enough depth to rotate, you are going to have to score from physically beating the guy on the other side of you. Oregon was outgunned against Auburn and they'll be outgunned again against LSU. LSU's defense won't start run blitzing after an 8 yard scamper by James, but they'll sit there and say you got lucky, do it again. Honestly, if Thomas doesn't come into this game with a level head, he'll end up getting angry and making some game ending mistakes against LSU's defensive secondary. If you can't force LSU out of a nickel and back into a 4-3... it's over. Auburn's spread was very much so a powerful one, but Oregon's is more of a speedy one which is not a favorable match up against a team that relys heavily on a strong network of defensive backs.
Example: One of Oregon's scores versus Auburn came from a play action from your own goal line. Your offense scored from Auburn going aggressive, but it wasn't because they were intimidated, but the prospect of a safety was worth gambling for in their minds.
So what am I saying? Those three new offensive lineman are going to have to stop zone blocking and go attack LSU with a little power football AND be successful if Oregon wishes to get LSU's defense into that uncomfortable off balance frame of mind.
Example: One of Oregon's scores versus Auburn came from a play action from your own goal line. Your offense scored from Auburn going aggressive, but it wasn't because they were intimidated, but the prospect of a safety was worth gambling for in their minds.
So what am I saying? Those three new offensive lineman are going to have to stop zone blocking and go attack LSU with a little power football AND be successful if Oregon wishes to get LSU's defense into that uncomfortable off balance frame of mind.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 7:31 pm
1
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:44 pm to EricB
quote:
Oregon doesn't stand a chance against LSU for one reason. Oregon's offense relies on the other defense self-destructing.
Oregon bludgeons teams that self destruct. It becomes annihilation.
quote:
This is why Oregon almost walked out of the Auburn game with 11 points.
We scored 19. If you want to deal in hypotheticals, we almost had 33 points.
quote:
Honestly, if Thomas doesn't come into this game with a level head, he'll end up getting angry and making some game ending mistakes against LSU's defensive secondary.
JJ seems to be the flappable one of the two qbs. Most likely scenario: JJ goes schizo not Darron.
quote:
If you can't force LSU out of a nickel and back into a 4-3... it's over.
No, just low scoring.
quote:
So what am I saying? Those three new offensive lineman are going to have to stop zone blocking and go attack LSU with a little power football AND be successful if Oregon wishes to get LSU's defense into that uncomfortable off balance frame of mind.
Oh, shite, we should just bag our scheme together.
I got to hand it to you EricB. You use a lot of bravado for a team that had an offense as anemic as a leukemia patient at times last year.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:50 pm to bisonduck
quote:
You use a lot of bravado for a team that had an offense as anemic as a leukemia patient at times last year.
We grinded teams out last year. We really shouldn't have won 11 games, quite frankly. The fact that we did is a testament to the character of the team, with its senior leadership (Shep). We tend to have that effect on teams. Just look at the Auburn game. It was a lot like the NC game. Low scoring. Even for most of the way and then Auburn broke us.
I think a big part of it for us is going to be that leadership factor on defense. We'll be looking at senior safety Brandon Taylor in the Oregon game. He got hurt last year but he's been solid for LSU for 3 years now. He needs to step up, and lead the D.
At any rate, we will try to stay in a nickel, get penetration with the front 7, especially on the strong side, and play assignment D on the edges, especially on the weak side.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 7:51 pm
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:54 pm to TxTiger82
I watched the LSU/WVU game two nights ago. You had 220 yards. That not grinding out a team...that is grinding to a halt. There are several games on your schedule that go the same way.
I love the best case scenarios on here too. You almost lost 4 games as well. Go read philesteele's blog right now on best case/worst case scenarios.
I love the best case scenarios on here too. You almost lost 4 games as well. Go read philesteele's blog right now on best case/worst case scenarios.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:55 pm to bisonduck
quote:
That not grinding out a team...that is grinding to a halt.
The point is that last year, we turned games into low scoring slug fests. That's what we do. We even did it to Auburn, although they beat us with a missed tackle on a fly sweep in the end.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:57 pm to TxTiger82
It should be noted that our D seemed to fall apart at the end of the regular season. The Arkansas and Ole Miss games were ugly.
Of course, those teams don't play much D either, so we scored too.
We really put it all together in the A&M game.
Of course, those teams don't play much D either, so we scored too.
We really put it all together in the A&M game.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:59 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
The point is that last year, we turned games into low scoring slug fests. That's what we do. We even did it to Auburn, although they beat us with a missed tackle on a fly sweep in the end.
They turned into low scoring sluf fests because your offense didn't score. Not because that was what was drawn up on the drawing board.
I am sure this was not the pregame pep talk, "hey boys, remember not to score too much so that we can win a low scoring slug frest!"
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:02 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
It should be noted that our D seemed to fall apart at the end of the regular season. The Arkansas and Ole Miss games were ugly.
Of course, those teams don't play much D either, so we scored too.
We really put it all together in the A&M game.
This game could go a myriad of directions. No one though Auburn/Oregon was going to end 22/19. Who knows? It's college football and opening day weekend.
I know that Oregon won't get beat on the deep route like TAMU. I expect a low scoring slugfest, btw.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:06 pm to bisonduck
quote:
They turned into low scoring sluf fests because your offense didn't score.
Obviously. The point is that we played tough D, kept it close, and scored enough to win most of the time.
Plus Les tends to sit on leads. For example, WVU was never going to win that game. Ever. We controlled the entire thing. If you actually watched the game you might understand that. You look at the stat column and I understand a reaction like the one you gave.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:10 pm to bisonduck
quote:
I got to hand it to you EricB. You use a lot of bravado for a team that had an offense as anemic as a leukemia patient at times last year
This might be true, but I'm not making pointless statistical arguments based on how much easier your opponents were and how little class your coach has.
I'm guilty of bias, sure, but I watch football games from every conference, all day on Saturdays. I do not only watch the SEC, and I have a more complex understanding of football than many fans on this board.
quote:
We scored 19. If you want to deal in hypotheticals, we almost had 33 points.
There is a fundamental difference in what I said, and what you're saying here. You played a defense that was more talented than you, and most of the time, they stopped you. The simple fact that two of your scores came from fluke (incredibly low probability) occurrences is more or less indicating that it was out of the norm for you to score. You "almost" had 33 points, but were "lucky" to even have 19 points.
You're wanting to be objective here, so lets be objective. Take every instance of Oregon performing a drive under normal circumstances and put it in one column, and record those results (in points.) Then take every instance in which something occurred during that drive that never happens and probably wouldn't happen if you performed that drive again and put it in a separate column. [I.E. a successful low probability play action gamble from your own end zone or the only would-be tackler getting knocked off his feet by an official.The result: An Oregon offense that was totally dominated by Auburn's defense without extremely rare and fortunate events happening.
If you do the same for Auburn, you'll see an offense that nearly scored at will. If you don't believe me, then go read a book on offensive philosophy and clock management, then look at the difference between Auburn's offensive play before and after the unexpected Newton fumble and Oregons late score. Auburn went back to their hurry up offense and made that finishing drive look easy.
quote:
JJ seems to be the flappable one of the two qbs. Most likely scenario: JJ goes schizo not Darron.
There is a reason Darron went to Oregon, because LSU wouldn't let him play QB. Auburn's defense was farely conservative compared to what LSU's defense is going to do, and regardless of how terrible JJ might play, I don't see LSU needing him to come through with a break-through performance to win this game.
Oregon turned some heads via running up the score, but luckily, the BCS at least forces you to prove it on the field at some point, and Oregon has not proven themselves in the BCS arena since Kelly has been there. 0-3 versus OOC ranked opponents in the last two years is a statistic you should look at when thinking about all of those powderpuffs you beat up on.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:11 pm to bisonduck
quote:
No one though Auburn/Oregon was going to end 22/19.
The signs were there. Cal held Oregon in check with their very good dline. And Auburn had one of those.
Plus, Auburn wasn't invincible. We held them to 24. Mississippi State held them to 17, and Clemson held them to 27 (OT). The blueprint for stopping them was there.
Anyways, I think everybody just got star struck by the offensive players and forgot the defenses were pretty good, too.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:32 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Ok maybe I don't know, but isn't Jerry World a Dome? Doesn't that means game conditions will be a comfortable 72 degrees?
Its a retractable roof and I'm not 100% sure the roof will be closed... therefore... heat and humidity will still most likely be involved. They prefer to have it open and only close it for bad weather. The only closed it for the suberbowl because of the threat of freezing temps. The roof closes in 12 minutes. So look for the roof to be open unless bad weather is in the forecast.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 8:55 pm
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:38 pm to EricB
EricB - let's not count the drives where someone completed a pass and only the drives were a 2nd and 5 was converted but not a 3rd and 7. What are we talking about anyway that doesn't happen out of the norm? A conversion on 4th down or a trick play? Last I checked a touchdown was a touchdown. Oregon got stuffed on the run. I get it. However, your hypothetical bullshite is just that - hypothetical. Auburn gave up 400 yards on the ground. I don't know about this fly sweep shite and missed tackle. Last I checked you need one more point to win.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 6/11/11 at 10:27 pm to TigersOfGeauxld
.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:52 pm to TigersOfGeauxld
quote:
TigersOfGeauxld
Oh my. I do not know if I can match your "10 reasons why LSU will beat UO comments". Is there yet a Duck who can make a case why Oregon Wins?
Yes there is! (And Bison-You need your fan card revoked! Do not try to defend yourself. Just turn in your UO fan card please)
I myself will easily step up to the plate and demonstrate why Oregon will beat LSU.
My reaction to those 10 reasons earlier posted with 13 reasons of my own why Oregon will win this game.
1)Recent Common Match-ups are not even close: Regardless what you all may claim, this thread author is on to something. UO has not played LSU the last 2 years. However, they each have played 3 common teams. While these facts do not prove necessarily who will win, they can show a major trend. Both teams played UW, Tenn, AU. Yardage means almost nothing. A team can get pix 6's and such and that does not show up as yards. Or a team can relax on D, but then be tough in the read zone and not give up points. Points is all that matters in games. Whoever has more points wins a game. Thus, there is a way to tell who was better in a game. It's called the scoreboard. In all 3 of those contests, Oregon did better, 3 OUT OF 3 times. For total points in all 3 games, LSU gave up 61 points. UO gave up 54. In total LSU scored 64 points. UO scored 110. UO has done better recently playing the exact same teams in the exact same year, 3 out of 3 times.
2)Oregon is a much all around more solid team: LSU ranked Nationally 11th in scoring Defense allowed. Oregon ranked 12th. LSU ranked nationally 45th in scoring Offense. Oregon ranked #1. If anyone claims "well, that was only mostly PAC tams." Well, see reason #1 above: 3 common opponent comparison.
3)Oregon has more super star talent: Oregon is bringing in more National All Americans in this game. LSU has zero. You think PP7 was good last year? We have All American Cliff Harris who intercepted more balls, was a better punt returner, and had better cover stats then PP7. His only flaw is he is small and light which makes his tackling ability weaker, much so, then PP7. Even though he is small, he can out leap the best of them. LSU has no corner on this seasons team who can match what Cliffy can do all around. He can literally change a game with a Pix 6 or punt return. Not to mention we had the nations leading rusher from last year: All American LMJ.
4)We have a much better QB and leader for our team: DT is hands down light years ahead of JJ. Has JJ improved that much over a spring/summer? Well, did we not hear the exact same things last year? I will believe it when I see it. And is JJ even semi close to the leader DT is? Not a chance. DT had his first starting role last year. He will only get better. He is a leading Heisman Candidate along with LMJ this year. LSU has no top preseason Heisman candidates at all.
5)We have a brighter head coach: We have a HC that thinks out of the box, loves to improvise and is highly respected for his brain. We have a head coach who has a clue and knows whats going on at all times. When it comes to controlling the clock at the end of the game, you want Chip Kelly on your side. Speaking of time, can your coach tell time? Not one single UO fan has ever booed Coach Kelly. But why all the booing Les Miles last year(vs Tenn, at the end)and vs OleMiss earlier? Why is it UO fans cant get enough of our HC while LSU fans scream for les Miles head to be cut off? One fan base adores their HC, the other is torn and split? That there says a lot.
6)The gap of ability between being skilled in Offense and Defense is too large: LSU was known for their vaunted Defense. Yet Oregon ranks nationally just one place behind LSU. So if LSU has a great D, Oregon's must be pretty good as well as they were nationally ranked one spot below LSU. LSU does not have a Offense however. While Oregon has by far the best O in the nation. UO played a crappy game on O last year vs AU. If UO can only score half as much as their regular season average, they win this game. And look for UO's great D to even be better this year for us.
7)Lady luck will not be following LSU in Dallas. LSU won too many games just on sure luck last year. Meanwhile, UO set records blazing all year and DOMINATED. It will take far more then lady luck in this game to squeak by.
8)LSU has a new OC, they need time to get used to the new Offense: UO meanwhile has all been in Chip Kelly's system and know it already quite well. Experience matters! Bringing in a new OC may in the long run be better for LSU, but testing a new OC for their first game vs a team like Oregon with a wicked D is just asking for trouble.
9)Oregon will overcome that curse of loosing big games when teams have much time to prepare: Tenn had a whole summer to prepare last year. How that do for them? UO will come out with much new formations and wrinkles and will make game planning hard with LSU. This long time will not help LSU as much as it thinks it will.
10)This game will be a mismatch favoring UO: LSU has not done well with Offenses similar to ours. UO's O is designed to eat apart over aggressive Defenses. And there is no Offense even close to Oregon's. LSU is not set up on D to handle a Offense like ours.
11)Oregon coaches will have our questions marks dealt with in time to play LSU. UO only has 2 major questions for this game. Loosing 2.5 starting O-line, and losing 2 top WR's. Getting 4 new very talented WR's coming in will help. we will have some ready to add to our 2 other very capable WR's we already have. And our O-line coaches is one of the best in the nation. UO has always been known for their O-line. Our coaches will have the players filling those gaps ready in time. Its not a rebuild year for UO, its a reload year. And on D, with us rotating 25-26 players each game, we more then easily have tons of players with tons of experience. We will be even more talented on D then last year.
12)Speed, speed, and more speed: UO was the fastest team in CF last year. They have even more true speedsters coming in. They will even be faster this year, even across the board. Many coaches/ fans who saw us play in person said we were the fastest team they ever saw. And with the play-makers, we have too many guys to count that if they get a crease- they are GONE! UO can score and score fast at any time, O or D. (or special teams.) Another poster earlier said LSU will shut down UO's O which will tire out the UO D. Not true. We have way more players on our team that play D then O because we are so used to scoring too quick. Having our D on the field all day is a common occurrence and we have built up our team for that knowing our O usually gets off the field quickly. UO's D will not be tired. We recruit for way more D players and are loaded there.
13)Oregon wants this game more: UO lost by 3 points in the title game. It left a bitter taste in our mouths. We are ever focused to not only reaching the title game again but winning it this year. UO is more hungry, motivated, desiring of this win. Its BCS title or bust for many. This is our year, as many will be turning pro probably next year. For a team to play maybe their worst Offensive game yet be tied at 2 seconds to go and only lose by a game winning FG for the Natty; can there be more incentive to win it all this year?
BCS Title chase take 2. Oregon will win this game. All Oregon coaches have spent all off season working on the reasons we did so poor at Natty. We will be ready. We want this game more then LSU and we will win it!
And you likewise have a nice day!
Posted on 6/12/11 at 12:41 am to bisonduck
quote:
I know that Oregon won't get beat on the deep route like TAMU
If LSU is having success running, you will have to come up. Don't assume you won't get beat.
Posted on 6/12/11 at 12:55 am to TigersOfGeauxld
quote:
If LSU is having success running, you will have to come up. Don't assume you won't get beat.
Cliff's got it covered.
Posted on 6/12/11 at 1:19 am to bisonduck
Except everything Oregon did was against the 59th toughest schedule in CFB last year, while LSU played the 6th toughest, as has been covered before.
And again, this is also a new year, and LSU has more experience coming back, and has recruited better over the last six years.
LSU by 10 or more.
And again, this is also a new year, and LSU has more experience coming back, and has recruited better over the last six years.
LSU by 10 or more.
Posted on 6/12/11 at 1:30 am to TigersOfGeauxld
Yes. Bravo. Cliff is a top 15 talent, as a true junior. Your receivers are very uninspiring, imho. I expected a lot more from RR being a #1 rated receiver. Oregon sees plenty of good qb WR tandems. Barkley to Woods, Luck to Owusu, Foles to Criner, et al were pretty tough. I think Cliff has this one covered - JJ to RR that is.
Posted on 6/12/11 at 1:33 am to bisonduck
It looks to me like we've got a couple ducks that are really enjoying their tigerdroppings experience. I've got a feeling that bisonduck and DucksflyinPAC are going to be around for a long time after the game. Welcome aboard! 
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