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Message
re: Football 2010 - early predictions
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:08 pm to jacksimmons2000
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:08 pm to jacksimmons2000
5-7 no QB
L - UNC
W - Vandy
W - MSU
L - UWV
W - UT
L - Fla
W - McNeese
L - Auburn
L - UA
W - ULM
L - UM
L - Ark
L - UNC
W - Vandy
W - MSU
L - UWV
W - UT
L - Fla
W - McNeese
L - Auburn
L - UA
W - ULM
L - UM
L - Ark
0
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:12 pm to Will2nd
quote:
2007
Flynn 12gm 56.27cmppct 202cmp 11int 21TDs 2407pyds 200.58ypgm 6.7yds/att
2009
JJ 12gm 61.49cmppct 182cmp 7int 17TDs 2166pyds 180.5ypgm 7.32yds/att
So 4 more TDs and 20 more pass yards per game needed to be at least on par with Flynn's performance. In the passing game that is the threshold that must be reached.
No, that's an example of stats not telling the true story. With Flynn, we didn't have to protect him so much, and could run whatever we wanted to. Flynn was given the freedom to make mistakes. He made some, but also produced more yards and TDs, but also opened up the running game. Jefferson needs to be protected by the play calling, which artificially improves his stats by keeping away from turnovers, but allows teams to focus on the run more. Jefferson could have better stats than Flynn and still not be as good a QB.
quote:
too much focus on the QB position and not enough on the running game.
The QB position is part of the problem with the running game. Florida pretty much left us open on the deep routes and made sure they stopped the run and the short routes. Jefferson couldn't make them pay for it, or Crowton and Miles were afraid to let him try.
quote:
Both Florida and Alabama were successful running the ball in 2008 and 2009. We were successful in 2007.
Because, in all three cases, the QBs were able to keep defenses honest with their ability to create big plays if the defense gambled too much.
quote:
Ala threw for 2396yds and 11tds in 2008 and still went undefeated in the regular season. In 2009, 2631 in 14gms with 17tds.
Again, stats don't tell the whole story. Also, Alabama is not a useful comparison because there is no comparison between our defense and the 2008 and 2009 Alabama defenses.
quote:
If we can get there we will win at least two more games than last year and win more comfortably as well.
Well, we could be better than last year and still not win as many games, simply because the schedule is tougher. For example, if we start this year with as poor a performance as we did last year, we very likely will not beat North Carolina like we did Washington.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:14 pm to tygerboy17
quote:
vs. Neb (Cotton) won, 31-17
Way off in my opinion because I predict the nebraska will finish in the top 2 of the big -12.
That should put them in a higher bowl then the cotton.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:15 pm to Choctaw
quote:
Hell, even 2-10 is possible.
no it's not
It's unlikely, of course, but after last year, can you really say that we are guaranteed to beat Mississippi State and Vanderbilt? State was an inch from beating us last year and Vanderbilt was very much in the game in the 4th quarter in Baton Rouge. It wouldn't have taken much for us to lose both of those games last year, and it wouldn't be all that shocking if we did this year. Of course, everything would have to go wrong in all the other games that are tougher, too, which is why the scenario is unlikely and why I'm predicting 6-6 or 7-5. But to call that a "worst case scenario" is ridiculous. 2-10 is probably the worst case scenario, but anything worse than 4-8 would be very surprising.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:19 pm to Nuts4LSU
11-1 with sole loss coming in Gainesville
Lose SEC championship game
End up in Sugar Bowl
Lose SEC championship game
End up in Sugar Bowl
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:20 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
It's unlikely
it's highly, highly unlikely...damn near impossible.
quote:
but after last year, can you really say that we are guaranteed to beat Mississippi State and Vanderbilt? State was an inch from beating us last year and Vanderbilt was very much in the game in the 4th quarter in Baton Rouge. It wouldn't have taken much for us to lose both of those games last year, and it wouldn't be all that shocking if we did this year.
every year is different...we should be much improved.
quote:
Of course, everything would have to go wrong in all the other games that are tougher, too, which is why the scenario is unlikely and why I'm predicting 6-6 or 7-5. But to call that a "worst case scenario" is ridiculous. 2-10 is probably the worst case scenario, but anything worse than 4-8 would be very surprising.
If last years team was playing this schedule you may be close...but this isn't last years team.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:26 pm to Choctaw
quote:
Except at qb and o-line (the last 2 years)...which are pretty important
Yes. Whoever is in charge of making sure we have good players and that we teach them to play well should start doing his job. He, whoever he might be, is the reason we aren't performing at the level we could and should be.
We should put someone in charge of the whole team who could sort of supervise the whole process of recruiting and developing players and using them in ways that capitalize on their talents, while also making key decisions in crucial game situations when a bad one might cost us a loss. That's the one ingredient we're missing right now. I think if we were to create such a position, a position one might call "head coach" or something like that, then hire someone to fill it who knows what he's doing, we might actually achieve the status we are capable of. Until then, we're just a whole lot of potential going to waste.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:30 pm to jacksimmons2000
quote:
Although Jefferson's spring game stats were not great, he had great numbers in 2009 and he has a fair chance of being the best in the SEC in 2010,
OMG
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:32 pm to Nuts4LSU
We had no running game... average, at best, QB play and a Defense that never seemed to be able to get off the field... Yet, we still won 9 games last year. I think we will improve in the running game and the ability to get to the QB on third downs. This will make us a better team and a 10 win regular season. Tiebreakers will determine who gets to ATL.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:33 pm to Choctaw
quote:
every year is different...we should be much improved.
Based on what? Losing 13 starters? For two years, we've heard all the whining about experience and youth, so now that nearly 60% of our starters will be first-year starters, that suddenly isn't going to be as crucial? An offensive line needs time to develop and gel. You don't just throw together a new OL and immediately start winning the battle in the trenches. A defensive front needs size and depth, in addition to speed. We are small and thin. Of course, the QB situation is well documented, too. There is no area of our team that we can confidently expect to be very good this year, except MAYBE the secondary. Meanwhile, we can very likely expect a dropoff in both lines, at WR and maybe also at RB. You don't get "much improved" with those kinds of holes in your team.
quote:
If last years team was playing this schedule you may be close...but this isn't last years team.
I think last year's team, as bad as it was, was better than this year's team will be.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:36 pm to Choctaw
quote:
it's highly, highly unlikely.
The discussion was about "worst case scenario". Worst case scenarios are highly unlikely, almost by definition.
quote:
damn near impossible.
No nearer to impossible than going 11-1 or 12-0 and winning the SEC West.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:39 pm to Nuts4LSU
Is there anyway I can block Nuts4LSU so I can't see his posts?
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:41 pm to XbengalTiger
quote:
We had no running game... average, at best, QB play and a Defense that never seemed to be able to get off the field... Yet, we still won 9 games last year.
And all of that is still a problem. In fact, much of it will likely be a bigger problem this year than it was last year. The running game has to replace practically its entire OL and most of its RBs. The defense lost a lot and is smaller and thinner this year. The QB is still average. And we came VERY close to winning a lot less than 9 games last year. Without Charles Scott (UGa), Chad Jones (MSU) and a very favorable ref's sideline call (Ark) to bail us out, 7-5 or 6-6 would have already happened last year. Against this year's tougher schedule, and without those elements, it's very likely to happen this year.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:41 pm to XbengalTiger
quote:
Tiebreakers will determine who gets to ATL.
Maybe, but we won't be involved in them.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:44 pm to filmmaker45
quote:
Is there anyway I can block Nuts4LSU so I can't see his posts?
Yes. Check in the upper left hand corner of the post. If you see "Nuts4LSU" there, then move your cursor to the scroll bar on the right and scroll down until you reach the next post.
I don't know how much good it'll do you, though. Even if you don't read it here and now, you'll still just be reading the same information everywhere else in the fall.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:44 pm to jacksimmons2000
11 and 1 or 10 and 2. win the west.
it's a solid team, with great players at key spots, mlb, cb, rb, wrs. still one year away from a great team, but very good.
the west is ours, auburn is still very young, arkansas scares me, look for miss st to scare.
the thing that i like is alabama has to play florida this year, so we're not starting behind the 8 ball like every other year.
i look for a lot of close games, a lot of out talenting people, much like 07.
it's a solid team, with great players at key spots, mlb, cb, rb, wrs. still one year away from a great team, but very good.
the west is ours, auburn is still very young, arkansas scares me, look for miss st to scare.
the thing that i like is alabama has to play florida this year, so we're not starting behind the 8 ball like every other year.
i look for a lot of close games, a lot of out talenting people, much like 07.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:56 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
And we came VERY close to winning a lot less than 9 games last year. Without Charles Scott (UGa), Chad Jones (MSU) and a very favorable ref's sideline call (Ark) to bail us out, 7-5 or 6-6 would have already happened last year. Against this year's tougher schedule, and without those elements, it's very likely to happen this year.
..And Alabama almost lost to Auburn, Tennessee. Florida almost lost to LSU, Arkansas, Missippi State and Tennessee. And the list goes on.. and on...
Posted on 4/13/10 at 12:57 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Yes. Whoever is in charge of making sure we have good players and that we teach them to play well should start doing his job. He, whoever he might be, is the reason we aren't performing at the level we could and should be.
Bet you have a number of them scratching their heads over your lack of a name. There's no virtue in supporting a coach slowly diminishing your program. The sooner Les is fired the better it will be for LSU.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 1:02 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Yes. Whoever is in charge of making sure we have good players and that we teach them to play well should start doing his job. He, whoever he might be, is the reason we aren't performing at the level we could and should be.
We should put someone in charge of the whole team who could sort of supervise the whole process of recruiting and developing players and using them in ways that capitalize on their talents, while also making key decisions in crucial game situations when a bad one might cost us a loss. That's the one ingredient we're missing right now. I think if we were to create such a position, a position one might call "head coach" or something like that, then hire someone to fill it who knows what he's doing, we might actually achieve the status we are capable of. Until then, we're just a whole lot of potential going to waste.
You can only get so much out of players...in the end they have to go out there and execute.
Posted on 4/13/10 at 1:03 pm to Choctaw
quote:
If last years team was playing this schedule you may be close...but this isn't last years team.
Lost a lot of talent from last years team.
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