You don't get the math. I really wish you did. Not all teams are created equal. A team that hits 4 HRs one year then 14 the next is different than one hittin 40 one year then 50 the next. It's not how these number work. LSU brought down the average. We're we a below average hitting team? Of course not. Let's put it this way...

If I told you LSU's numbers. All of them. Including who returned. And left out HRs. What do you think people would guess?

If I said Chinea and Sciv hit around 350 for the year. If Foster was around 300. If I put everything on paper about this team. Then said "we hit 41 Hrs last year. College baseball increased their HR production by 40%. Here are all of LSU's numbers. How many HRs do you think we had this year?" I promise that more people would be guessing around 70 much less 60. And baseball people too.

The point is that 60 wasn't a dumb guess. 45 was dumb considering who we brought back and every other indicator.

Now next year, the numbers should go flat or even down.

This post was edited on 6/24/15 at 4:51 pm

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Posted by ell_13

Member since Apr 2013

87447 posts

Posted on 6/24/15 at 4:54 pm to southeasttiger113

It's an average. Of course it's not to be exactly followed. But it can be used as guidance. We can say an average team increased by 40%. LSU beat the average on doubles, runs, and BA. Why would you expect them to LOWER the Hr average? That's called an anomaly. It goes outside what would be expected based on how the other numbers increased.

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Posted by southeasttiger113

Member since Aug 2011

2046 posts

Posted on 6/24/15 at 5:11 pm to ell_13

Here's one: if you can find a stat that says a team that hit 40 home runs was more likely to add 20+ home runs this year, I'll get myself banned. You won't because it's a logical fallacy. The new balls added 10 home runs per team no matter how many home runs they hit because the average was 21 point blank. It doesn't matter what they did last year because that stat isn't dependent on individual teams last year, they just clumped together every team and found that the average went from 21 per team to 30 per team. That means that some teams went from 15 to 6, some went from 21 to 30, some went from 41 to 51, and some went further each way, but it'll always average out to 21 last year and 30 this year. But there's literally no reason to think that because a team hit 40 last year that the number would increase by double the average. Can you not see why you're wrong? I get what you're thinking, but it's incorrect. An average of +9 home runs per team doesn't change bud. Checkmate, now get the frick out of this thread

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Posted by southeasttiger113

Member since Aug 2011

2046 posts

Posted on 6/24/15 at 5:12 pm to ell_13

And yea, if you think that adding double the national average to our home run total isn't a dumb guess then you're a complete moron.