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re: LSU-AUBIE rematch for BCS title can happen - here's how...
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:18 pm to purple passion
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:18 pm to purple passion
quote:
But, are you stating that it is already an absolute mathematical impossibility for LSU to edge out an undefeated TCU at the end, no matter how much respect we earn by winning out?
Problem is not overcoming TCU in the computer polls.
It's overcoming TCU ALOT in the computer polls since 2/3 of the BCS formula (Harris and Coaches polls) will have TCU above LSU. We would have to edge them by about .100 pts in the computer poll, which is the edge we have on Boise right now. Currently, TCU has the edge on LSU by .060, which means LSU would need to make up a .160 computer gap....not going to happen imo.
Also, the BCS numbers from the Harris and Coaches poll are very close for TCU and Boise because they're splitting votes for #3 and #4. That's not going to happen if it comes down to LSU and TCU in the human polls. Full BCS Poll
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Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:21 pm to RJtigerfan
quote:
LSU-Aubie would be nice, but what about an LSU-TCU matchup if Oregon and Auburn lose? Or would it end up being TCU-Boise? Would LSU have enough to get by Auburn if they won the SEC Championship game after a loss in the last game of the season?
IMO, LSU might be able to pass Boise IF TCU is a unanimous #1. If TCU and Boise split votes for #1 and LSU is #3, then LSU won't be able to make up the 2/3 human poll gap over Boise.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:29 pm to purple passion
quote:
Right now, many think a 1-loss LSU can NOT get ahead of an undefeated TCU, but I think that is short-sighted, present-day thinking and could easily change over the next 3 weeks if we continue to win.
We absolutely HAVE to win the SEC to pass unbeaten TCU. You are crazy to think otherwise. In order to play AU the following has to happen:
1. Oregon Loses
2. Nebraska Loses
3. TCU loses
4. Boise probably has to lose.
Those first 3 (and probably 4) are musts for LSU to play Auburn. That is a FACT.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:34 pm to Paulu
quote:
Nobody in the media wants to see a rematch of a game where we got spanked hard. Media will vote us as the lowest one loss team if it gets to that scenario.
Why not? Undefeated Auburn vs. LSU and the Mad Hatter with one loss looking for revenge for our worst Defensive game of the year? I say if we get help it would be another "first" for the BCS with two teams from the same conference to play for the title, similar to us being the first two loss team in 2007.
I don't think TCU loses, however, their schedule will continue to kill them as they end the year playing the worst team in football in New Mexico. San Diego St is the only team that could sneak up on them.
Oregon isn't losing either IMO. Although the road game at Cal and Oregon State is always a tough game because of the rivalry.
We need Auburn to lose to Bama and the SEC Championship and we may get in if Boise slips up and we can jump TCU and play Oregon. That's the only way I see it happening for us. If that happened, Auburn would probably go to the Capital One and we would head to the Orange Bowl or Fiesta possibly.
I hate to say it, but I see Oregon vs Boise State for the title, the media will want Boise to have a shot if there isn't a one loss or undefeated SEC Champion.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:36 pm to lsumatt
LSUMatt dropping the thread ending knowledge.
Matt said it so /thread.
Matt said it so /thread.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:37 pm to South Georgia Dawg
quote:
See UGA 2007. Not going to happen. Win your conference is what the talking heads told us.
If AU loses the SEC championship anything is possible.
Georgia was lobbying to to the the BCS after LSU had won the SEC championship. Different situation.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:40 pm to RJtigerfan
Will never happen
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:41 pm to lsumatt
quote:
2. Nebraska Loses
This is where I disagree with you Matt. I think if Ok State is 11-1, maybe LSU has no shot. But, with an Ok State loss, I think LSU will be a full spot over Nebraska in the computers. The voters will then have to cohesively decide on what teams they will vote where in order to specifically keep LSU out, should TCU and Oregon lose. That loss to Texas at 5-7 will drag down their rankings like an anchor. If the voters are not organized, they will let LSU slip in the NC.
That being said, I think the most unlikely event of all the NC scenarios is a TCU loss. They just won't lose IMO. I think it will either be LSU v. TCU in the NC or bust as far as the BCS NC is concerned. Then you bring up the nightmare of 12-1 Auburn with their only loss coming in the SEC CG and my head explodes thinking about Pittsburgh playing Va Tech in the Orange Bowl while LSU is relegated to the Cotton Bowl at #4 or #5 in the BCS.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:44 pm to caljammer82
My projections....
Oregon wins out..
TCU wins out..
Boise wins out..
Auburn loses to 'Bama and wins SEC Champ over Florida (S Carolina is reeling right now)
We win out...and the BCS looks like this.
BCS NC Game Oregon vs. Boise State
Sugar Auburn vs. Ohio State
Rose Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta TCU vs. Nebraska
Orange LSU vs. Virginia Tech
My only question is...where do you put the Big East winner who will be well out of the top 20 in the BCS standings?
Oregon wins out..
TCU wins out..
Boise wins out..
Auburn loses to 'Bama and wins SEC Champ over Florida (S Carolina is reeling right now)
We win out...and the BCS looks like this.
BCS NC Game Oregon vs. Boise State
Sugar Auburn vs. Ohio State
Rose Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta TCU vs. Nebraska
Orange LSU vs. Virginia Tech
My only question is...where do you put the Big East winner who will be well out of the top 20 in the BCS standings?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:47 pm to caljammer82
Also, after the NC, what are the selection orders in the BCS?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:52 pm to slackster
quote:
I think LSU will be a full spot over Nebraska in the computers.
They won't have try to keep LSU out, they just have to decide to put Nebraska in. If Nebraska is 12-1 and Big12 Champs then almost any voter is going to put Nebraska above LSU. Hell, I would and I am an LSU fan. If you are right and LSU is one spot above in the computers, all Nebraska needs is to be half a spot above in the polls.
And while LSU may be a spot above in the computers, that isn't a guarantee either. The Big12 is rated as whole better than the SEC by most computers. Granted LSU plays in the west, has a tougher OOC schedule, and didn't lose to 5-7 Texas, but NU would have a 13th game to bump them up.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:54 pm to caljammer82
quote:
BCS NC Game Oregon vs. Boise State
Sugar Auburn vs. Ohio State
Rose Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta TCU vs. Nebraska
Orange LSU vs. Virginia Tech
TCU would be in the NC. Boise will not pass TCU this year in any aspect of the BCS. Auburn would probably still make it to the NC, but lets assume they didn't:
NC Oregon v. TCU
Rose Wisconsin v. Stanford/Boise
Sugar Auburn v. tOSU
Orange Pitt v. Va Tech
Fiesta LSU v. Nebraska
Unless some this happens, Boise has a really good chance of being in the Humanitarian Bowl at #3 or #4 in the BCS. The public outcry would be outrageous, but the Rose is sure to pass them up unless required to take them, but TCU in the NC would void that responsibility, and the Fiesta is their only shot, but the Fiesta and Orange will not leave LSU out to dry.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:20 pm to GeauxTigersLee
Look,
I think the incredible uniqueness of what could be - an all-SEC title game - makes anything feasible by the final BCS ranking.
Why is it impossible for LSU to be considered by some pollsters to be the #2 team in the country at the end, if both Aubie and LSU win out?
The only loss we would have would be to Aubie, in their house, by 7 points, and they would be #1.
And, if the 2 top teams ever come from the same conference, one of them will always be a non-champ.
To the contrary, it seems more likely to me, that some pollsters would absolutely begin to believe by season's end that both top teams are in the SEC, if we both win out.
So, I can not agree that it is "certain" that LSU has zero chance of edging out an undefeated TCU at the end, unless someone can offer a more convincing argument that no pollsters will possibly decide as LSU wins out, to begin ranking LSU above TCU.
And if any pollsters decide that LSU is the #2 team, the determining factor will then become how many pollsters make that determination and begin ranking LSU above TCU.
Maybe I am missing something (and I remain open to any and all good arguments to the contrary).
But I am not currently convinced that it is impossible for LSU to edge out TCU in the final BCS poll, based upon the cases stated here thus far.
In fact, I still believe LSU would have a decent shot of jumping TCU in the final ranking, if we and Aubie look impressive and win the rest.
I think the incredible uniqueness of what could be - an all-SEC title game - makes anything feasible by the final BCS ranking.
Why is it impossible for LSU to be considered by some pollsters to be the #2 team in the country at the end, if both Aubie and LSU win out?
The only loss we would have would be to Aubie, in their house, by 7 points, and they would be #1.
And, if the 2 top teams ever come from the same conference, one of them will always be a non-champ.
To the contrary, it seems more likely to me, that some pollsters would absolutely begin to believe by season's end that both top teams are in the SEC, if we both win out.
So, I can not agree that it is "certain" that LSU has zero chance of edging out an undefeated TCU at the end, unless someone can offer a more convincing argument that no pollsters will possibly decide as LSU wins out, to begin ranking LSU above TCU.
And if any pollsters decide that LSU is the #2 team, the determining factor will then become how many pollsters make that determination and begin ranking LSU above TCU.
Maybe I am missing something (and I remain open to any and all good arguments to the contrary).
But I am not currently convinced that it is impossible for LSU to edge out TCU in the final BCS poll, based upon the cases stated here thus far.
In fact, I still believe LSU would have a decent shot of jumping TCU in the final ranking, if we and Aubie look impressive and win the rest.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:30 pm to purple passion
quote:
So, I can not agree that it is "certain" that LSU has zero chance of edging out an undefeated TCU at the end, unless someone can offer a more convincing argument that no pollsters will possibly decide as LSU wins out, to begin ranking LSU above TCU.
1. They don't need "some" pollsters...they need most
2. The voters have TCU way above LSU already. Not winning our conference isn't going to change their minds.
3. Even if half of the voters or so decided to put LSU above TCU, there would be others that decided to put 1-loss Big12 champ, 1-loss Oregon, or 1-loss Big10 champ above LSU giving TCU cushion.
To have any shot in hell you need:
1. Oregon to lose
2. TCU to lose
3. Either Nebraska or Boise to lose...
and I personally think NU and Boise BOTH have to lose. Now, I think those 4 losses are VERY possible and I will have hope till the end. But we aint passing undefeated TCU without winning the SEC
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:42 pm to purple passion
I think a lot of voters will intentionally downvote LSU if AU goes in. The reason is LSU vs AU means a 5th straight SEC National Title. I think a lot of people are sick of the SEC's monopoly on the BCS and will do whatever they can to break the streak.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:49 pm to lsumatt
quote:
If Nebraska is 12-1 and Big12 Champs then almost any voter is going to put Nebraska above LSU.
It will be interesting IMO, because you will have to move Nebraska past LSU despite LSU beating perhaps a Top 10 team in Arkansas while Nebraska has nothing to hang their hat on until the Big 12 game. 11-1 Ok Stat gets beat in the game by Nebraska, I think LSU is done. If it is 10-2 Oklahoma or Ok State, then LSU has a chance, especially if the voters are deciding between Nebraska, Oregon, LSU, Wisconsin etc. I think someone creates a wedge, but I am eternally optimistic.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 4:08 pm to lsumatt
OK matt and slack,
I have to respect your opinions.
But I still think there should be a chance, because two opposing changes could take place during the next month. LSU could gain additional respect from pollsters and improve its computer scores, while TCU loses a little of its luster and computer scores.
Seems like some slippage during TCU's lackluster back-end and some simultaneous enhancement of respect for LSU during a tougher schedule could possibly result in a photo finish in the last BCS poll, which we might win by a nose.
You seem adamant that can't happen, but I still don't quite understand how you can be so sure.
I'll just say I told you so, if I end up right.
Thanks for the intelligent discourse.
I have to respect your opinions.
But I still think there should be a chance, because two opposing changes could take place during the next month. LSU could gain additional respect from pollsters and improve its computer scores, while TCU loses a little of its luster and computer scores.
Seems like some slippage during TCU's lackluster back-end and some simultaneous enhancement of respect for LSU during a tougher schedule could possibly result in a photo finish in the last BCS poll, which we might win by a nose.
You seem adamant that can't happen, but I still don't quite understand how you can be so sure.
I'll just say I told you so, if I end up right.
Thanks for the intelligent discourse.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 4:42 pm to South Georgia Dawg
quote:
See UGA 2007. Not going to happen. Win your conference is what the talking heads told us.
UGA also didn't have the computer rankings to do it. UGA was ranked in the top five in just one computer poll, the Massey Poll, and that was dropped since the highest and lowest scores are dropped. So effectively, UGA didn't even get a top-five ranking in the computer polls.
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