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re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 2/16/23 at 7:03 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 2/16/23 at 7:03 pm to bayoubengals88
This guy needs to take $25 and walk to the bank the same day.
1
Posted on 2/16/23 at 7:16 pm to DiamondDog
I’d be ok with $22, but Peter’s ego is too big for anything under $30.
I really hope options are granted prior to 2/28.
If they aren’t, then we have no reason to expect a good earnings call because he’ll want them cheap.
I really hope options are granted prior to 2/28.
If they aren’t, then we have no reason to expect a good earnings call because he’ll want them cheap.
Posted on 2/16/23 at 7:27 pm to bayoubengals88
This guy doesn't seem to act in the interest of shareholders
Posted on 2/17/23 at 8:16 am to DiamondDog
Q1 2022 Bloomberg script count: 168. This translated to 21.6 million in revenue.
We are showing 171 just six weeks into the quarter. If we continue on this pace 300 scripts will be easily attainable. Previously our best was 208 in Q4.
I'm thinking 35 million revenue for Q1, which would show 70% yoy growth. You'd think that would help the stock price, but of course these numbers won't be out until next earnings.
To the best of our knowledge, the Bloomberg terminal numbers account for roughly 1/6 of total scripts.
This week's 13 NEW scripts is an all time high. These numbers 13 x 6 should account for about 5m in annual revenue going forward. If 60% stay on drug then it translates to 3m. That's a good week's work for the sales team.
We are showing 171 just six weeks into the quarter. If we continue on this pace 300 scripts will be easily attainable. Previously our best was 208 in Q4.
I'm thinking 35 million revenue for Q1, which would show 70% yoy growth. You'd think that would help the stock price, but of course these numbers won't be out until next earnings.
To the best of our knowledge, the Bloomberg terminal numbers account for roughly 1/6 of total scripts.
This week's 13 NEW scripts is an all time high. These numbers 13 x 6 should account for about 5m in annual revenue going forward. If 60% stay on drug then it translates to 3m. That's a good week's work for the sales team.
This post was edited on 2/17/23 at 8:22 am
Posted on 2/17/23 at 9:15 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Q1 2022 Bloomberg script count: 168. This translated to 21.6 million in revenue.
We are showing 171 just six weeks into the quarter. If we continue on this pace 300 scripts will be easily attainable. Previously our best was 208 in Q4.
I'm thinking 35 million revenue for Q1, which would show 70% yoy growth. You'd think that would help the stock price, but of course these numbers won't be out until next earnings.
To the best of our knowledge, the Bloomberg terminal numbers account for roughly 1/6 of total scripts.
This week's 13 NEW scripts is an all time high. These numbers 13 x 6 should account for about 5m in annual revenue going forward. If 60% stay on drug then it translates to 3m. That's a good week's work for the sales team.
Thank you for sharing the numbers!!! I wish scripts translates directly to share price but unfortunately I've seen how this goes. 70% yoy growth would be stellar
Posted on 2/18/23 at 11:16 am to oklahogjr
From @epausti on Stocktwits:
great script numbers again (thank you @Magnificient).
- this week’s TRx was right on the quarterly average, (avg TRx/day only decreased by 0.02) so still at 5.9 TRx/day in Q1
- scripts have been so high this quarter that I reduced the weighting of the more positive model (more conservative). Model ensemble predicts Q1 rev at 36.8m, or >147m for 2023 at no growth.
- another conservative measure would be to take the same % reduction of rev/TRx from last Q4–>Q1 and apply it to this Q4–>Q1. The math would be .1286/.1966 x .1365 = .0893 rev/TRx for Q1, or 33.7m. I believe this would be a fairly large departure from the model, but would still represent meaningful revenue growth.
I’m not sure what to think. I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but even at the conservative level it seems like sales have been picking up. What do people think - have Bbg scripts unintuitively become a larger % of total starting all of a sudden in 2023? Regardless, so far it’s been a great quarter.
great script numbers again (thank you @Magnificient).
- this week’s TRx was right on the quarterly average, (avg TRx/day only decreased by 0.02) so still at 5.9 TRx/day in Q1
- scripts have been so high this quarter that I reduced the weighting of the more positive model (more conservative). Model ensemble predicts Q1 rev at 36.8m, or >147m for 2023 at no growth.
- another conservative measure would be to take the same % reduction of rev/TRx from last Q4–>Q1 and apply it to this Q4–>Q1. The math would be .1286/.1966 x .1365 = .0893 rev/TRx for Q1, or 33.7m. I believe this would be a fairly large departure from the model, but would still represent meaningful revenue growth.
I’m not sure what to think. I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but even at the conservative level it seems like sales have been picking up. What do people think - have Bbg scripts unintuitively become a larger % of total starting all of a sudden in 2023? Regardless, so far it’s been a great quarter.
This post was edited on 2/18/23 at 11:18 am
Posted on 2/18/23 at 11:42 am to bayoubengals88
What is your estimate for share price in the next 12-24 months. I am holding my 1K shares for investment and trading the rest in CC's and cash covered puts to increase my trading shares.
Posted on 2/18/23 at 12:33 pm to jerryc436
quote:I too, have traded a few shares for options.
What is your estimate for share price in the next 12-24 months. I am holding my 1K shares for investment and trading the rest in CC's and cash covered puts to increase my trading shares.
I'm doing well with 3/17 $8 calls and I've begun adding some Jan '24 $10s.
So that tells you that I think we will be $12-15 organically by this time next year.
The biggest hurdle to achieving that kind of share price is marketwide headwinds, but with good revenues we should see pops on earnings regardless.
In the event of a major downturn (that I think is likely), I'd like to soon add some very long and very low puts on QQQ to hedge.
Posted on 2/18/23 at 3:21 pm to bayoubengals88
You could play sqqq vs options and not have the stress of expirations
I am hoping we get to 11 - 12 range after earnings. I need to get off of some April exp options. I’ve been buying July but probably need to accumulate Jan options now and unass the closer expiring options
What are premiums for Jan 24?
I am hoping we get to 11 - 12 range after earnings. I need to get off of some April exp options. I’ve been buying July but probably need to accumulate Jan options now and unass the closer expiring options
What are premiums for Jan 24?
Posted on 2/18/23 at 3:43 pm to jimjackandjose
About a $2 premium for Jan ‘24 $10 call.
No expiration for SQQQ? News to me…
No expiration for SQQQ? News to me…
Posted on 2/19/23 at 5:40 pm to bayoubengals88
It's an inverse etf... you don't hold it years, but you can wait out an up cycle
2 dollar is cheap considering stock should be worth 12 right now
2 dollar is cheap considering stock should be worth 12 right now
Posted on 2/19/23 at 6:14 pm to jimjackandjose
Oh I see your meaning now. Yeah I made money on 38s last week. I think I was playing 2/24 expiry.
Regarding AUPH someone mentioned that $5 calls were going for just four dollars on Friday. I’m talking Jan ‘24. Sounds like a steal!
Regarding AUPH someone mentioned that $5 calls were going for just four dollars on Friday. I’m talking Jan ‘24. Sounds like a steal!
Posted on 2/19/23 at 8:41 pm to bayoubengals88
I'll have to look when market opens
It feels like 12 is inevitable in the next month
Could always hedge against it. I mean we are talking multiples if BO happens, a hedge down isn't a bad play to cover costs
It feels like 12 is inevitable in the next month
Could always hedge against it. I mean we are talking multiples if BO happens, a hedge down isn't a bad play to cover costs
Posted on 2/19/23 at 8:55 pm to jimjackandjose
No doubt. I like the position I’m in with shares and those calls.
What would be a good put in case Peter somehow botches the earnings call?
Would we drop if he mentioned developing the new drug assets?
What would be a good put in case Peter somehow botches the earnings call?
Would we drop if he mentioned developing the new drug assets?
Posted on 2/19/23 at 9:08 pm to bayoubengals88
This thing hits $12 and I'm taking profits. They aren't motivated to sell and I don't see many other products in development based on my research. One trick pony it seems.
This post was edited on 2/19/23 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 2/19/23 at 9:27 pm to DiamondDog
I think they absolutely are shopping it.
There are two assets, but they are preclinical.
However, everyone hopes that they don’t initiate development.
Even as a one drug company they can be profitable and obviously a top candidate for a bolt on acquisition for all the big pharmas who need to replenish their arsenal with a great drug that will be potentially very profitable for 14 years.
There are two assets, but they are preclinical.
However, everyone hopes that they don’t initiate development.
Even as a one drug company they can be profitable and obviously a top candidate for a bolt on acquisition for all the big pharmas who need to replenish their arsenal with a great drug that will be potentially very profitable for 14 years.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 4:37 pm to bayoubengals88
Something’s in the works. Price action today made it obvious.
7.90 to 8.00 all morning on extremely low volume with markets and XBI in deep red.
Then an 8.40 finish on 1.7 million shares traded in just 43 minutes.
7.90 to 8.00 all morning on extremely low volume with markets and XBI in deep red.
Then an 8.40 finish on 1.7 million shares traded in just 43 minutes.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 4:58 pm to bayoubengals88
Or is it because Nektar's therapy didn't meet expectations and Lily said to shelve it for a 2b trial
eta: either way, that is positive news for AUPH. Lily could move to M&A vs developing own drug.
eta: either way, that is positive news for AUPH. Lily could move to M&A vs developing own drug.
This post was edited on 2/23/23 at 4:59 pm
Posted on 2/23/23 at 7:21 pm to Rendevoustavern
quote:Very astute. I had not caught wind of this yet. Though, to me, it really looked like organized short covering that got a bit disorganized around 2:00 PM.
Or is it because Nektar's therapy didn't meet expectations and Lily said to shelve it for a 2b trial
However, if LLY needs an Lupus drug after two failures, I can actually see that having moved our stock price. I'd love to get back above $9 tomorrow.
This post was edited on 2/23/23 at 7:24 pm
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:15 pm to bayoubengals88
Either way, it should be positive for us
I'd love a BO news but I know that's dreaming
I'd love a BO news but I know that's dreaming
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