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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 6/12/14 at 12:21 pm to rintintin
Posted on 6/12/14 at 12:21 pm to rintintin
quote:
I'm holding strong. I think by a purely technical standpoint UNG has strong resistance at the 27.89 level. It hasn't broken 27 since late February. If it blows passed that point then I'll abandon ship.
What are you holding? DGAZ? KOLD?
2
Posted on 6/12/14 at 1:21 pm to TigeRoots
Posted on 6/12/14 at 1:43 pm to sneakytiger
I couldn't help myself. I bought 300 more UNG July 23 puts at .06, and 300 more July UNG 24 puts at .14.
Posted on 6/12/14 at 1:44 pm to Iowa Golfer
@ sneaky tiger.
What's your take on the forward curve?
What's your take on the forward curve?
Posted on 6/12/14 at 1:44 pm to TigeRoots
KOLD
Posted on 6/12/14 at 1:49 pm to rintintin
quote:
KOLD
I'm tied up in both. I got in KOLD pretty high and have not even sniffed break even. I've gotten my head above water a few times in the last few months with DGAZ, but nothing substantial. I'm steadily averaging down. Huge opportunity today to do so, but not sure I have the stones at this point.
This post was edited on 6/12/14 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 6/12/14 at 3:25 pm to TigeRoots
I bought more Kold, I can get out at 42 but I won't leave till Oct.
Posted on 6/12/14 at 5:51 pm to L S Usetheforce
Force do you have a set price target for KOLD in mind? I know back in Feb you said you'd sell in the 80's, but at this point you have to have reevaluated that. Do you think we'll even see the 50's or 60's again?
Posted on 6/12/14 at 7:12 pm to rintintin
We cant have 80s until ng trades at like 3.90 futures..... But we can get to 60s with 4.00 futures
Posted on 6/12/14 at 9:22 pm to L S Usetheforce
I think I'm going to buy DGAZ tomorrow. I know I mostly talk negative about these types of etn's, but I seriously believe natural gas has to decline in price, and I'm so locked in to July with my outs, DGAZ might salvage the day for me in the end. Which might be as late as October.
It's about all I got right now.
It is flipping unbelievable how the market over reacted to today's injection.
It's about all I got right now.
It is flipping unbelievable how the market over reacted to today's injection.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 8:01 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I think I'm going to buy DGAZ tomorrow.
At these prices so am I.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 9:12 am to TigeRoots
Cash seems to have stayed at $4.50. I thought I saw HH yesterday at $4.70, but cash NYMEX indicates yesterday settled at $4.50. I hope so.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:39 am to Iowa Golfer
No clue. Short term sure seems like it's dying for a correction. I get that utilities don't really care what they buy their gas at, but at some point you'd think even they would say "I'm out" and force the other side's hand.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 2:14 pm to sneakytiger
If cash stays steady this evening, I have a glimmer of hope. I think the July contract will pull spot prices upward though.
Posted on 6/15/14 at 6:06 pm to Iowa Golfer
Cash on Friday was fetching $4.67. This settlement must be propelling up the future's market this evening. July is over $4.80.
In a word, depressing.
In a word, depressing.
Posted on 6/16/14 at 7:55 am to Iowa Golfer
Better.
Posted on 6/17/14 at 8:12 am to Iowa Golfer
LINK
We need our "tooth" to flatten out in 30 days
quote:
Recent seasonal averages on the CME NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas forward curve show just an 8 cents/MMBtu spread between next winter (2014/2015) and this summer (2014) – a number that provides very little incentive for storage injection. Things don’t look much better for storage spreads further out on the curve either with an average spread over the next 10 years of just 33 cents/MMBtu. Today we analyze storage spreads over the past 6 years.
quote:
Looking at the 5-year range and 5-year average in Figure #1 shows us where prices in the latest curve for June 2014 (the red line) fall in relation to recent history. The first thing you see at the start of the 2014 curve is what looks like a giant tooth (inside the green dashed circle) that we explained last time is a legacy of last winter’s polar vortex that left underground storage depleted and pushed gas prices up by about $0.5/MMBtu. After that “polar molar” the 2014 curve drops back below the 5-year average (blue line) and resumes a more normal pattern. But the important thing to note about the 2014 curve is that prices quickly fall towards the bottom of the 5-year range, breaking below that range in Year 10. On average 2014 curve prices are $1.25/MMBtu below the 5-year average indicating that in the futures market at least, gas prices are expected to get low and stay low as soon as next winter is over.
We need our "tooth" to flatten out in 30 days
Posted on 6/17/14 at 8:45 am to sneakytiger
July 18/19. I should have gone to October, but I still hope I can get out alive.
Posted on 6/17/14 at 8:53 am to Iowa Golfer
Actually we probably need a move in the next 7-10 days, especially for the 23's... looking more and more likely that these expire out of the money.
Posted on 6/18/14 at 1:19 pm to sneakytiger
I'm half tempted to unwind all of it today, except I doubt there are buyers for all of my puts.
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