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re: Buy and hold
Posted on 4/8/10 at 12:39 pm to kfizzle85
Posted on 4/8/10 at 12:39 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Even though you haven't been on here recently, per usual, your response completely misses the point of the post. Congratulations.
Well, per usual, you fail to provide any reason why you believe I miss the point.
Please, Please enlighten me.
The thread is titled Buy and Hold
Your link is titled Death of Buy and Hold (or why it is terrible advice)
My remark is critical of their assertion that buy and hold is dead. I then point out that attacking certain investing strategies involving stock is not new and...Im missing the point...where?
1
Posted on 4/8/10 at 12:46 pm to amsterdam
I have no desire arguing in circles with you when you don't even understand your own side of the argument. Have a good day.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 12:53 pm to kfizzle85
I'm still waiting to hear a pick he thinks is good and why and at which price. But it sure is taking him a while to respond. I can see that he's online and surely someone of his financial stature only reads the money board.
EDIT: No longer online. Oh well.
EDIT: No longer online. Oh well.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 12:58 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
But let's put our money where our mouths are. amsterdam, I'm challenging you to give me your no. 1 pick, why it is your no. 1 pick, and which price you think is a good entry.
Here you completely misunderstand me. The argument at hand is not who is the best stock picker. The argument is your TA to my buy and hold.
I am the first to admit that I do not pick short term (weekly or even monthly) stock ideas. I leave that type of speculation to Jim Cramer, MSNBC, and Money Talk. Its not what I do. I have 0 day trading clients and id like to keep it that way.
When I look at a stock idea, I judge its merits versus the clients goals and objectives, then proceed with an investment that I believe will earn significant value over the following several years. Am I always right? Nope, to say I am would be dishonest and misleading, but I would tend to believe that my picks with a 3 - 5 year time frame (or longer in some cases) are generally more successful than yours with a 3 - 5 day window.
Consider the fact that we could easily love the same stock idea, but for very different reasons. You may like the merits of a stocks trend, where as I may like because it has a sound business plan.
Im not saying TA doesnt have its uses, and sometimes it can come across as "voodoo",but it is far from the "be all end all" when it comes to stock due diligence.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:01 pm to RedStickBR
Dude, you're wasting your time. Its really not worth it. 
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:02 pm to amsterdam
quote:
I am the first to admit that I do not pick short term (weekly or even monthly) stock ideas.
OHHHHHH, so you ARE NOT a short-term trader, but yet you are actually criticizing both the people who are and the methods in which they employ all the while having admittedly very little experience of your own. Wow, where I come from we'd call you a bumbling idiot.
And I'm not trying to see who the "best stock picker is". Since this is about TA vs. buy and hold, as you concede, then give me a stock and let's see whose analysis would be able to give one of your clients (God Bless 'Em) the most profit potential.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:04 pm to kfizzle85
That is becoming more and more apparent with each keystroke he makes. Wish you'd told me that about 5 posts ago
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:06 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
I have no desire arguing in circles with you when you don't even understand your own side of the argument.
Um, What? If you have no desire to argue, then you may as well exclude yourself from the conversation from the beginning.
I do not see what is so disengaging with my short comment of your slides. The conclusion doesnt flow from the represented information. At best, all it can do is imply as much. Which in no way invalidates my belief that "buy and hold" is and continues to be a sound investment strategy.
Again what point is being missed here? Where is the circular reasoning? What do I not understand?
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:07 pm to RedStickBR
See, my argument (from the slide) wasn't in favor of "day trading" necessarily, it was simply pointing out that the volatility in the market is going to be higher than it has in the previous cycle. Somehow, amserstdam converted that into a spiel about bull markets and some kind of historical quote misdirection. It has nothing to do with bull markets or bear markets, it has nothing to do with stocks or bonds, but you'd have to have an introductory level understanding of statistics to understand that rather basic premise. I guess that's asking too much.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:08 pm to amsterdam
Then you can respond to my reply to Redstick.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:10 pm to amsterdam
quote:
If you have no desire to argue, then you may as well exclude yourself from the conversation from the beginning.
Oh, great, so basically unless one is not willing to argue, they should not engage in a conversation with you.
quote:
Which in no way invalidates my belief that "buy and hold" is and continues to be a sound investment strategy.
Here's the difference between you and me. You're okay with "sound". I strive for the best. What you find sound is not the best, in my honest opinion which is rapidly becoming the opinion of many in the financial world, including almost all mid-level and boutique investment banks who now have technical analysis departments.
A quick google search turned up Jeff Weiss from Jesup & Lamont. He even carries a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) distinction. Boy he is just drinking the kool-aid left and right.
LINK
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:14 pm to kfizzle85
I completely understand both your posts and the slide to which you referenced. And I'm not even a daytrader. I mainly swing trade, holding most issues for a week or two at most. I'm in agreement that daytrading is not in 99.9% of individual investors' best interests. Swing and position trading can be though.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:17 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
OHHHHHH, so you ARE NOT a short-term trader, but yet you are actually criticizing both the people who are and the methods in which they employ all the while having admittedly very little experience of your own. Wow, where I come from we'd call you a bumbling idiot
In no way is it logically inconsistent to criticize a method based on expierence. It would be bumbling to criticize based on lack of knowledge which was never implied.
I have studied TA, I am aware of its strenghts and weaknesses, and I know by which methods day traders utilize them. My conclusion, is that it is not consistent with successful long term investing.
We criticize things every day in which we have no actual experience. Think about anytime you have admonished a head coach, the president, your boss, or any number of situations in which you had no actual experience. Case in point, I have been universally criticized on this message board, yet I bet that less than 1% of those critics have ever been a FA.
Further to bring us back closer to the original point, I think it is comical that you advise the original poster to employ TA over Buy and Hold
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:21 pm to RedStickBR
Indeed. I think my position on "buy and hold" and "day trading" was pretty clearly laid out in my original post, but I doubt amsterdam read it.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:26 pm to amsterdam
I recommend a healthy dose of both TA and FA. My initial post was merely arguing the merits of TA, not arguing for its exclusive use. You may have been confusing where I said that it is the only way to determine whether a security is overbought or oversold for me saying that it is the only method one should employ. You're really reaching here.
Give me a pick. Let's see who can make one of your clients the most money off of it. It shouldn't matter if your client holds it for 1 week or 1 decade, TA can still be used to increase his profit potential.
Give me a pick. Let's see who can make one of your clients the most money off of it. It shouldn't matter if your client holds it for 1 week or 1 decade, TA can still be used to increase his profit potential.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:30 pm to kfizzle85
fizz, your position is crystal clear. This guy, though, really has coherency issues.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:32 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
I recommend a healthy dose of both TA and FA
I use 90% TA for my trading decisions. The only fundamentals I pay attention to are earnings dates, and cash flow (for micro caps). I have found a swing trading strategy which has been highly profitable. What most people think TA tries to do is "predict the future." This is totally incorrect and quiet frankly, absurd. TA teaches one the SKILL of trading. It shows us how to "let profits run" and "cut losses short". It gives us a set of guidelines that help us manage risk, and in turn produce profits. Most people see the various oscillators and think it's voodoo. What they don't see is that TA uses volume and price to show us the PSYCHOLOGY of the market participants. /rant
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:33 pm to RedStickBR
You should go back a year or so, particularly any threads involving JT, tirebiter, foshizzle, and the topic of active vs passive management and mutual funds. You'd understand my initial response about not wanting to argue in circles etc. even more. Really, you'll get a good laugh out of it.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:35 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
See, my argument (from the slide) wasn't in favor of "day trading" necessarily, it was simply pointing out that the volatility in the market is going to be higher than it has in the previous cycle.
Understood, to which my reply was that within the slides (not specifically your argument) the conclusion that "Buy and Hold" is dead or really bad advice is invalid.
quote:
Somehow, amserstdam converted that into a spiel about bull markets and some kind of historical quote misdirection. It has nothing to do with bull markets or bear markets, it has nothing to do with stocks or bonds
I never thought thru your slides that you were implicitly favoring "day trading". I understand the point you were making and merely commented on it
Again, my sidenote about Business Week, was intended as nothing more than an illustration. It (once again) shows that this is not a new spin on the viability of equity investing.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:37 pm to dutchdanish
quote:
I have found a swing trading strategy which has been highly profitable
Congrats! I would note that most all stock strategies over the past 13 months have been profitable as well.
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