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More rate cuts may rest on systemic job over count
Posted on 12/11/25 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 4:19 pm
quote:CNBC
At his Wednesday news conference, Chair Jerome Powell mentioned several times that there likely has been negative job growth in recent months, a condition that would argue for easier monetary policy.
“Gradual cooling in the labor market has continued,” Powell said. “Surveys of households and businesses both show declining supply and demand for workers. So, I think you can say that the labor market has continued to cool gradually, just a touch more gradually than we thought.”
At issue is a monthly estimate the Bureau of Labor Statistics performs of how the labor market is affected by businesses closing and opening. The estimate, known as the birth-death model, takes a guess at the jobs gained by openings and lost by closings.
Powell said the model has probably overstated jobs by about 60,000 per month since April. With job growth averaging just shy of 40,000 in that period, an overstatement that size would equate to payroll losses of about 20,000 per month.
There will be more than one rate cut next year if the job numbers are soft.
1
Posted on 12/11/25 at 9:48 pm to bigjoe1
Wonder if too late is giving is a hint of a really bad jobs report coming up
Maybe hes seen it. We still have many voting members saying how great the job market is
Maybe hes seen it. We still have many voting members saying how great the job market is
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