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Stocks rebounding...
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:35 am
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:35 am
The Street Article
U.S. stocks turned higher Thursday, following on from the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in nearly two years, as investors continue to dump megacap tech stocks and pare risky bets in markets all over the world.
Top Sectors:
S&P 500 Industrials Sector
S&P 500 Energy Sector
S&P 500 Real Estate Sector
S&P 500 Financials Sector
U.S. stocks turned higher Thursday, following on from the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in nearly two years, as investors continue to dump megacap tech stocks and pare risky bets in markets all over the world.
Top Sectors:
S&P 500 Industrials Sector
S&P 500 Energy Sector
S&P 500 Real Estate Sector
S&P 500 Financials Sector
4
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:45 am to Nole Man
Yesterday sucked.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:06 am to VABuckeye
"Brutal Wednesday"
S&P 500 Slides 2%: Worst Day Since 2022 As Magnificent 7 Sheds Almost $800 Billion
But today's another day. Dow up over 350 currently.
U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
The report shouldn’t change the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Officials have signaled that they expect to hold interest rates steady at their meeting next week but could cut at their subsequent meeting, in September, if inflation continues to cool. Thursday’s report provides a snapshot of how the economy is doing, two years after soaring inflation prodded the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. Higher rates are meant to slow the economy.
While the U.S. by many measures is doing well even amid high rates, and the pace of inflation has cooled, many Americans are unhappy that prices for groceries, cars and homes are so much higher than they were a few years ago.
And even though predictions of a recession have faded, there are signs of weakness.
A red-hot jobs market, which allowed millions of Americans to switch to jobs that paid more or fit them better, is starting to slow. Although the unemployment rate is still historically low, employers added jobs at a slower pace in the second quarter compared with the first.
S&P 500 Slides 2%: Worst Day Since 2022 As Magnificent 7 Sheds Almost $800 Billion
But today's another day. Dow up over 350 currently.
U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
The report shouldn’t change the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Officials have signaled that they expect to hold interest rates steady at their meeting next week but could cut at their subsequent meeting, in September, if inflation continues to cool. Thursday’s report provides a snapshot of how the economy is doing, two years after soaring inflation prodded the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. Higher rates are meant to slow the economy.
While the U.S. by many measures is doing well even amid high rates, and the pace of inflation has cooled, many Americans are unhappy that prices for groceries, cars and homes are so much higher than they were a few years ago.
And even though predictions of a recession have faded, there are signs of weakness.
A red-hot jobs market, which allowed millions of Americans to switch to jobs that paid more or fit them better, is starting to slow. Although the unemployment rate is still historically low, employers added jobs at a slower pace in the second quarter compared with the first.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:28 am to Nole Man
Buckle up for the turbulence over the next few months. October should be wonderful!
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:03 pm to TJack
SOXL was down 12% at 915. It's now up 1.2%.
Nice V.
Nice V.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:59 pm to Nole Man
wow the market is rebounding after a sell off after how many record highs this year? i wouldn't have imagined
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:08 pm to Nole Man
Yeah, my stuff is of the buy and hold variety so I'm not sweating it. Everything I have is on a 5-10 year ride and I continue to purchase some every week.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:13 pm to TJack
quote:
Buckle up for the turbulence over the next few months. October should be wonderful!
The recession is always 6 months away.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:22 pm to Nole Man
quote:
U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
Did it really? That's dollar values, not unit sales. My belief is that unit sales are dropping (shrinkflation, inflation), if that's true then we're actually seeing a contraction in unit sales as consumers spend more to get less. That would not be a good recipe for economic prosperity and stability.
In a slightly different vein, one of the indicators the Fed needs to see in order to feel more secure in cutting rates is a drop in GDP. If they think it's going up and they raise rates, inflation is going to quickly follow it upward.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 3:14 pm to Bard
quote:
If they think it's going up and they raise rates
Drop rates?
Posted on 7/25/24 at 4:06 pm to Nole Man
What's the deal with the NASDAQ taking such a beating this week? Down again today.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 4:20 pm to Bard
quote:
In a slightly different vein, one of the indicators the Fed needs to see in order to feel more secure in cutting rates is a drop in GDP. If they think it's going up and they raise rates, inflation is going to quickly follow it upward.
Agreed. A combination of high inflation but slowing GDP growth and Rising unemployment is obviously not a good scenario. The Market's expectation of interest rates a drop in 10-year yield signals that investors are anticipating lower rates in the future so this is a connection that investors should always look out for as well.
Another factor to watch for is unemployment rates.
The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator and is widely accepted as a predictor. Based on unemployment rates.
You're seeing a steadily rising chart. June's value was 0.43%, compared to 0.37% the prior month and 0.07% the year before. We'd want to see what the July indicator shows.
What Is The SAM Rule Indicator?
What is the Sahm Rule?
The "Sahm Rule" is a recession indicator created and named after Claudia Sahm, a macroeconomist who worked at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
According to the Sahm Rule, the early stages of a recession is signaled when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is half a percentage point or more above the lowest three-month moving average unemployment rate over the previous 12 months.
The Sahm Rule has been widely recognized for its accuracy, simplicity, and ability to quickly reflect the onset of a recession.
Real Tim SAM Rule
June Chart
Posted on 7/25/24 at 5:28 pm to back9Tiger
quote:
What's the deal with the NASDAQ taking such a beating this week? Down again today.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 160.69 points, or 0.93%, to 17,181.72.
Had to look around. Some good articles:
LINK
Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist, said in a Thursday note the tech sector was correcting after the strongest two-month relative outperformance since 2022.
"This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time. Still, our base case is the longer-term bull market remains intact," Lerner said.
LINK
NASDAQ is losing some ground in a volatile trading session. Chip stocks like Arm Holdings and Advanced Micro Devices remain under pressure as investors start to worry about valuations. Such worries present the key risk for the tech-heavy NASDAQ in the near term. As AI-related companies rush to invest to gain market share and get an edge over competiton, their short-term profits may suffer.
If NASDAQ pulls back below the 19,000 level, it will move towards the next support at 18,500 – 18,600.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 6:21 pm to skewbs
quote:quote:
If they think it's going up and they raise rates
Drop rates?
Dammit.
Yes, drop rates.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:04 am to Nole Man
Dow Surges!
Over 700 gain so far today.
Major Indexes moved higher Friday as tech stocks recovered, earnings gave a big boost to several companies and inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon.
LINK
Investors reacted positively to news Friday that the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed that price pressures moderated in June. Fed officials have said they are looking for further evidence that inflation is under control before it starts cutting its benchmark interest rate, and Friday's data help solidify the expectation that the central bank will do so by September.
LINK
Key variable in all this is the markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Which should fuel greater gains in the markets.
Over 700 gain so far today.
Major Indexes moved higher Friday as tech stocks recovered, earnings gave a big boost to several companies and inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon.
LINK
Investors reacted positively to news Friday that the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed that price pressures moderated in June. Fed officials have said they are looking for further evidence that inflation is under control before it starts cutting its benchmark interest rate, and Friday's data help solidify the expectation that the central bank will do so by September.
LINK
Key variable in all this is the markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Which should fuel greater gains in the markets.
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