- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Winter Olympics
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:23 pm to PatrickPeterson501
quote:I'm with ya. I agree with others that this means Glickman is extremely confident.
I can't convince myself to exit any of my $5.31 position in AUPH. This was always going to be long term play for me but the short term profits have been incredible!
Consensus is that there were three ways to raise capital.
1) Buyout in the near future around $15
CEO knows the drug is worth WAYYY more than this.
2) Partnership with Japan thus giving them foreign rights to the drug
Would rather keep ALL rights for future buyout
3) public offering/dilution
Hurts short term, but demonstrates extreme confidence in the long term growth of the company. Maybe he's waiting for what we might consider an absurd buyout right now $40 or much higher.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:24 pm to bayoubengals88
How much more are you gonna buy?
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:32 pm to Paul Allen
I'm OUT of money. I'm probably not going to add anymore if it stays above $9
Already back to $9.47...I assume the 25% drop was people trying to get out and buy back lower?
Already back to $9.47...I assume the 25% drop was people trying to get out and buy back lower?
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:19 pm to bayoubengals88
Perhaps. I could see this stock leveling off at $16-$20 soon.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:36 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
public offering/dilution
Hurts short term, but demonstrates extreme confidence in the long term growth
Lots of bio companies in R&D dilute; most of their financials aren't great. This is actually very common after a bio company has bullish news
quote:
Maybe he's waiting for what we might consider an absurd buyout right now $40 or much higher.
Where is this $40/share figure coming from? The company is not profitable and their drug hasn't passed phase 3 and is not FDA approved. Gonna be less than $40/share after this dilution
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:38 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
this stock leveling off at $16-$20 soon.
Not a chance
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:40 pm to JimMorrison
Ok
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:46 pm to JimMorrison
Guys you need to chill and sell trust me. Look up tnxp a friend of mine gave me a tip in 2013 or 14 it went from $4.50 or so to $20+ in a quick timeframe like this, they offered multiple times once immediately at $15 or so then many times after. It's a penny stock now I think. Just be careful don't fall in love with these microcaps, that one was supposed to go to $100 people said, I learned my lesson and stick to normal stocks now haha
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:53 pm to JimMorrison
quote:
Where is this $40/share figure coming from? The company is not profitable and their drug hasn't passed phase 3 and is not FDA approved. Gonna be less than $40/share after this dilution
The value of the drug is likely 3-4 billion based on past buyouts.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 8:44 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:I'm not done here.
Where is this $40/share figure coming from? The company is not profitable and their drug hasn't passed phase 3 and is not FDA approved. Gonna be less than $40/share after this dilution
How many pharmas are actually profitable? Those are the ones that buyout the AUPHS of the world. There's no reason to believe that AUPH will be profitable for the next two years, and here's the good news...there's no reason it needs to be profitable. Why? Because a company worth well over 100 billion dollars will probably buy it for 4 billion and all of its shareholders get paid.
Regarding not passing phase 3 yet: Most would argue that it is much more likely to pass than fail. They made phase 2 as hard as they possibly could with some of the best phase 2 results ever seen. As far as FDA approval goes, it will be easier to gain now than ever...especially with the new FDA chief.
I don't understand where your hatred is coming from besides maybe an opportunity missed. Perhaps you wanted to short at $10.45 and it didn't work out.
This investment might not end well for me, but at least I know why I'm trying it. I like what the company has going for it. This drug may save many lives. And lastly, I'm trying to get a financial head start in my life before I turn thirty.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 8:47 pm to bayoubengals88
Not sure where the vitriol is coming from, but he seems upset.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:11 pm to Paul Allen
all i want to know is what the PO is going to be with this thing?
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:19 pm to rocket31
quote:The street guy says $6.25 to $6.75
all i want to know is what the PO is going to be with this thing?
We should know tomorrow.
A positive theory is that these shares will be gobbled up hastily, and that the pps will recover in stride.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:26 pm to bayoubengals88
nah itll go sub offering soon, all stocks go below the offering. Just watch, even large caps go below the offering. You just gotta see how much they dilute the shareholders. If you believe in the product long term then hang on but you've made 100% already most of you, Id sell and move on, there's always another trade
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:39 pm to bayoubengals88
yea, too many unknowns here
the price, how many shares, when can you buy, etc
i bet many people are pissed
the price, how many shares, when can you buy, etc
i bet many people are pissed
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:53 pm to bayoubengals88
First, just because I'm technically bearish on this stock now doesn't mean I hate it. It's entertaining to me that yall can bullishly speculate, but I can't speculate on the price action in the other direction. 
The news of dilution just further solidified my position. If the PO is announced at $6, you better believe the stock will drop to that price level. This isn't even considering how many shares they are going to offer, either. This is terrible for the current shareholders in the short-term. "Great! I now own less of a percentage of the company!" Haha. This dilution practice is so common for these pharmaceutical companies in this price range (with financial issues) that it is almost predictable. Guess what happens every time? The offering is below the current market price and the market corrects downward.
I seriously wish you the best of luck in your endeavor. I'm not personally attacking your investment by any means. I'm just posting my reasons, which I believe are well founded, for why the stock price is going to decrease in the short-term. AUPH may really end up to be a great long-term investment, but don't expect the volatility to always be in your favor when dealing with these types of risky stocks.
The news of dilution just further solidified my position. If the PO is announced at $6, you better believe the stock will drop to that price level. This isn't even considering how many shares they are going to offer, either. This is terrible for the current shareholders in the short-term. "Great! I now own less of a percentage of the company!" Haha. This dilution practice is so common for these pharmaceutical companies in this price range (with financial issues) that it is almost predictable. Guess what happens every time? The offering is below the current market price and the market corrects downward.
quote:
This investment might not end well for me, but at least I know why I'm trying it. I like what the company has going for it. This drug may save many lives. And lastly, I'm trying to get a financial head start in my life before I turn thirty.
I seriously wish you the best of luck in your endeavor. I'm not personally attacking your investment by any means. I'm just posting my reasons, which I believe are well founded, for why the stock price is going to decrease in the short-term. AUPH may really end up to be a great long-term investment, but don't expect the volatility to always be in your favor when dealing with these types of risky stocks.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:58 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Id sell and move on, there's always another trade
Exactly. Sell and buy back in at the lower offering price if you really believe in the company and product moving forward. Why not grab more shares with this opportunity??
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:11 pm to rocket31
MMEX on that morning gap could be a nice quick play
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:25 pm to JimMorrison
I'm reading that the offering is 15 million shares. Currently 52.8 million outstanding.
Dabigfella: your generalizations never cease to amaze me. There was a pharma just last week that offered at $9.50 and it's at $12 today. "ALL" and "EVERY" are strong words. Please use them scarcely.
I don't have 200k to throw at WYNN resorts or PM or Visa. Blue chips and ETFs like QQQ are solid. No one is denying that...but this thread is geared toward the inexpensive, volatile types.
Dabigfella: your generalizations never cease to amaze me. There was a pharma just last week that offered at $9.50 and it's at $12 today. "ALL" and "EVERY" are strong words. Please use them scarcely.
I don't have 200k to throw at WYNN resorts or PM or Visa. Blue chips and ETFs like QQQ are solid. No one is denying that...but this thread is geared toward the inexpensive, volatile types.
Page 6 of 33
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News