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re: What’s the deal with Exxon?
Posted on 9/8/20 at 12:31 pm to castorinho
Posted on 9/8/20 at 12:31 pm to castorinho
Production isn’t rebounding as fast as consumption. I would bet we hit $50 or more in the next year.
1
Posted on 9/8/20 at 3:42 pm to TigerCrude
Dividend cut is next...
Posted on 9/8/20 at 5:50 pm to C
quote:
Production isn’t rebounding as fast as consumption. I would bet we hit $50 or more in the next year.
Consumption is slow to rebound and there is a metric frick ton in storage. Saudi is trying to gain market share by cutting price since demand isn't growing. I read an article last week that said we are at 62% of the 5 year rolling average for consumption of refined product. After 2008 it took 4.5 years for consumption to get back to pre crash levels. The crash here is worse and ultimately caused by the same thing, debt. The virus just sped things along. I don't see prices breaching $50 for quite some time. LINK
I see Exxon going to $20 since they cant make money upstream or downstream. They are going to have to cut the dividend.
This post was edited on 9/8/20 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 9/8/20 at 8:53 pm to 8thyearsenior
quote:
I read an article last week that said we are at 62% of the 5 year rolling average for consumption of refined product.
I’m not sure I’ve seen that. Oil consumption is back above 90 where production trails by about 5. If that spread lasts to year end supply will be less than where we started the year. And it won’t rebound quickly.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 8:55 pm to Spec1
Muh crosstimbers
Posted on 9/8/20 at 11:48 pm to C
quote:
I read an article last week that said we are at 62% of the 5 year rolling average for consumption of refined product.
quote:Are y'all talking US or Global consumption? Crude or refined products? Make sure you're comparing apples and apples. On these topics, I always go to EIA.gov for data.
I’m not sure I’ve seen that. Oil consumption is back above 90 where production trails by about 5.
Short term energy outlook
quote:
EIA estimates that demand for global petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 93.4 million b/d in July. Demand was down 9.1 million b/d from July 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.0 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020, which was down 15.8 million b/d from year-ago levels. EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels globally will average 93.1 million b/d for all of 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020.
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