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re: When do you expect the wheels to actually come off?
Posted on 12/21/22 at 6:20 pm to Pendulum
Posted on 12/21/22 at 6:20 pm to Pendulum
quote:
Still extrapolating to a 3%+ number though so it's not like we are saved,
Core PCE m/m is supposed to come in around .2 again. Canada's monthly core was just 0. And don't we all expect prices(homes/rents, autos, goods) to drop next year? Id be very surprised if inflation was over 3% next Christmas. And I'd be surprised if the FED isn't .25 away from being done. Maybe high energy bleeds through into core next Summer, but it shouldn't be a problem.
We are one cooperative labor and inflation report away from the feds last hike. The dollar is about to get buried in '23. I'll keep some powder dry for this earnings calamity everyone is talking about and the associated risk off in the dollar, but thats just a positioning event to get a bigger slice of the pie.
1
Posted on 12/21/22 at 6:25 pm to BarleyPop
post more
Posted on 12/21/22 at 6:26 pm to I Love Bama
Agreed
Posted on 12/21/22 at 7:06 pm to SmackoverHawg
I don’t think this is going to be. 2008/09 type of recession. I think More like 2001- where assets massively deflate but jobs are still strong. As long as inflation subsides a bit, the average Joe probably will be just fine. The over-levered upper class going to feel the biggest drawdown IMO. I just don’t see a systemic blow up in the working economy coming.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:12 pm to thegreatboudini
I’m still waiting to see how committed these billionaires and bankers are to their war on American retail investors. Nothing like watching someone shoot themselves in the face
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