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Started By
Message
re: Bracketology - UPDATED 3/15
Posted on 2/27/09 at 12:30 pm to PiscesTiger
Posted on 2/27/09 at 12:30 pm to PiscesTiger
Bracket projections after Thursday, February 26
Projected Auto Bids are in CAPS.
NOTE: BYU and UCLA are NOT the projected winners of the Mountain West and Pac-10.
NOTE: Purdue and Illinois were swapped on the 5/6 line for logistical reasons.
ETA: Swapped 2-seed pods between Midwest and East regions.
SOUTH (Memphis)
Greensboro
(1) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (16) RADFORD
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Florida
Portland
(4) Missouri vs. (13) DAVIDSON
(5) Purdue vs. (12) UTAH STATE
Miami
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) UT-MARTIN
(6) Texas vs. (11) SIENA
Dayton
(2) Louisville vs. (15) SAM HOUSTON STATE
(7) BUTLER vs. (10) Virginia Tech
WEST (Arizona)
Kansas City
(1) OKLAHOMA vs. (16) Cornell
(8) BYU vs. (9) Tennessee
Boise
(4) Washington vs. (13) AKRON
(5) GONZAGA vs. (12) Minnesota
Miami
(3) Clemson vs. (14) WEBER STATE
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Kentucky
Minneapolis
(2) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (15) BINGHAMTON
(7) California vs. (10) Providence
MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Dayton
(1) PITTSBURGH vs. ALABAMA STATE/ROBERT MORRIS
(8) Boston College vs. (9) Ohio State
Minneapolis
(4) Marquette vs. (13) WESTERN KENTUCKY
(5) LSU vs. (12) Miami
Greensboro
(3) Duke vs. (14) AMERICAN
(6) Illinois vs. (11) CREIGHTON
Boise
(2) Kansas vs. (15) LONG BEACH STATE
(7) UTAH vs. (10) Arizona
EAST (Boston)
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) JACKSONVILLE
(8) South Carolina vs. (9) Wisconsin
Portland
(4) ARIZONA STATE vs. (13) VCU
(5) XAVIER vs. (12) Oklahoma State
Philadelphia
(3) Villanova vs. (14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE
(6) Florida State vs. (11) St. Mary's
Kansas City
(2) MEMPHIS vs. (15) MORGAN STATE
(7) Syracuse vs. (10) Dayton
Last Five In
Kentucky
St. Mary's
Miami
Minnesota
Oklahoma State
First Five Out
Penn State
Maryland
New Mexico
Cincinnati
Michigan
Next Five Out
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
UAB
Rhode Island
Temple
Projected Auto Bids are in CAPS.
NOTE: BYU and UCLA are NOT the projected winners of the Mountain West and Pac-10.
NOTE: Purdue and Illinois were swapped on the 5/6 line for logistical reasons.
ETA: Swapped 2-seed pods between Midwest and East regions.
SOUTH (Memphis)
Greensboro
(1) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (16) RADFORD
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Florida
Portland
(4) Missouri vs. (13) DAVIDSON
(5) Purdue vs. (12) UTAH STATE
Miami
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) UT-MARTIN
(6) Texas vs. (11) SIENA
Dayton
(2) Louisville vs. (15) SAM HOUSTON STATE
(7) BUTLER vs. (10) Virginia Tech
WEST (Arizona)
Kansas City
(1) OKLAHOMA vs. (16) Cornell
(8) BYU vs. (9) Tennessee
Boise
(4) Washington vs. (13) AKRON
(5) GONZAGA vs. (12) Minnesota
Miami
(3) Clemson vs. (14) WEBER STATE
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Kentucky
Minneapolis
(2) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (15) BINGHAMTON
(7) California vs. (10) Providence
MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Dayton
(1) PITTSBURGH vs. ALABAMA STATE/ROBERT MORRIS
(8) Boston College vs. (9) Ohio State
Minneapolis
(4) Marquette vs. (13) WESTERN KENTUCKY
(5) LSU vs. (12) Miami
Greensboro
(3) Duke vs. (14) AMERICAN
(6) Illinois vs. (11) CREIGHTON
Boise
(2) Kansas vs. (15) LONG BEACH STATE
(7) UTAH vs. (10) Arizona
EAST (Boston)
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) JACKSONVILLE
(8) South Carolina vs. (9) Wisconsin
Portland
(4) ARIZONA STATE vs. (13) VCU
(5) XAVIER vs. (12) Oklahoma State
Philadelphia
(3) Villanova vs. (14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE
(6) Florida State vs. (11) St. Mary's
Kansas City
(2) MEMPHIS vs. (15) MORGAN STATE
(7) Syracuse vs. (10) Dayton
Last Five In
Kentucky
St. Mary's
Miami
Minnesota
Oklahoma State
First Five Out
Penn State
Maryland
New Mexico
Cincinnati
Michigan
Next Five Out
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
UAB
Rhode Island
Temple
This post was edited on 2/27/09 at 2:30 pm
3
Posted on 2/27/09 at 12:55 pm to PiscesTiger
oooo the dreaded 12-5 slot for the Tigers....sure would like to see us sneak up to a 4 seed somehow
Posted on 2/27/09 at 12:55 pm to BraveTiger225
pisces and bravetiger, this may have been asked already, and i dont expect this to happen but assume for a second lsu wins the last 3 regular season games and wins the SEC tournament. are we looking at a 2 seed in that case?
This post was edited on 2/27/09 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 2/27/09 at 1:01 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
Shankopotomus
I think LSU will be able to get to a 4 if they just take care of business. Unfortunately, the committee is going to look at our SOS, record vs. RPI Top 50 and conference strength and not give us much leeway with even one loss. If we do lose, for the sake of a 4 seed, it had better come deep in the SEC tournament.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 1:03 pm to latiger09
quote:
latiger09
I think WAAAY too much has to happen for LSU to get as high as 2. We just don't have the résumé to compete with those. Michigan State, Memphis, Louisville and Kansas have far stronger arguments for the higher seeds, and have far more quality wins, something we have no chance to catch up on.
If we win out, and a few things fall our way in other conferences, perhaps a 3 isn't out of the realm of possibility. But, I think, given what is ahead of us, a 4 is likely the highest we should hope for.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 5:12 pm to BraveTiger225
FWIW, Siena cannot afford to lose tonight to Niagara if they want ANY chance of an at-large (should they need it).
Posted on 2/27/09 at 5:53 pm to latiger09
quote:
pisces and bravetiger, this may have been asked already, and i dont expect this to happen but assume for a second lsu wins the last 3 regular season games and wins the SEC tournament. are we looking at a 2 seed in that case?
I think we are looking at a 3, best case scenario - no matter what happens and how bad we beat folks. The 2 seeds are likely already taken - either by the Memphises and Louisvilles or the ones who are slippin' like OU and UNC. There are just too many other teams who are asking, "Do we have a shot at a 2?" and those teams are more deserving, in the committee's eyes, than LSU.
I moved us back to a 5, because it's going to be tough to win every single game from here on out. I think we can, but will we with a 7 deep lineup? It's not likely. The committee is ready to penalize us BIG TIME just for losing ONE game and ready to reward us very little by winning all games.
There's tremendous hypocracy in regards to the SEC and especially LSU and South Carolina. Tennessee is still projected as a 8-9 seed in most brackets and it's simply due to losing to Gonzaga, Kansas, etc. and beating Georgetown and Marquette. What the committee better understand is that we beat UT - up in Knoxville. Much like 2006 when they gave UT a 2 and us a 4 - even though we beat them in BR and won the SEC - LSU is just not darlings of the brcketologists and NCAA.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 5:59 pm to BraveTiger225
quote:
8) West Virginia vs. (9) Florida
Likely matchup. I could see this happening.
quote:
(5) LSU vs. (12) Miami
I gott ask you why you think the Canes get in the dance, with that awful conference record? I realize they have some impressive wins, but man...I just think they're almost in Notre Dame/USC territory.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 6:01 pm to PiscesTiger
quote:
I gott ask you why you think the Canes get in the dance, with that awful conference record? I realize they have some impressive wins, but man...I just think they're almost in Notre Dame/USC territory.
Miami will NOT be in!!! But A nice matchup for LSU if it happens!!!
Posted on 2/27/09 at 6:17 pm to PiscesTiger
Brave has forced me to get a little fancier with my bracket...check it out.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 6:35 pm to PiscesTiger
2/27 Sweet 16 projections:
East
1 Pitt vs 4 Illinois
3 Villanova vs 2 Memphis
South
1 North Carolina vs 5 Arizona State
3 Clemson vs 7 Cal
Midwest
1 U Conn vs 5 LSU
3 Wake Forest vs 2 Louisville
West
1 Oklahoma vs 12 Wisconsin
3 Duke vs 2 Kansas
East
1 Pitt vs 4 Illinois
3 Villanova vs 2 Memphis
South
1 North Carolina vs 5 Arizona State
3 Clemson vs 7 Cal
Midwest
1 U Conn vs 5 LSU
3 Wake Forest vs 2 Louisville
West
1 Oklahoma vs 12 Wisconsin
3 Duke vs 2 Kansas
Posted on 2/27/09 at 6:39 pm to PiscesTiger
quote:
3 Clemson
Not sure about this!! They would have to do BIG things in the ACC tourney!!! IMO!!!
Posted on 2/27/09 at 7:09 pm to dukke v
YOU SHUT THAT MOUTH PJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clemson (22-5, 8-5)
Quality wins:
vs Temple
@ Illinois
@ Miami
@ South Carolina
vs Virginia Tech
vs Duke
@ Boston College
vs Maryland
Quality Losses:
vs Wake Forest
@ North Carolina
vs Florida State
@ Virginia Tech
Bad Loss:
at Virginia
Crucial down the stretch games:
at Florida State
vs Virginia
at Wake Forest
* ACC Tourney
If Clemson can win 2/3 games and make a deep run into the ACC Tourney, the Tigers should be no worse than a 4 and lock down a 3. If Clemson sweeps the latter part of the schedule and wins the ACC tourney, they will have a great shot at a 2.
Clemson (22-5, 8-5)
Quality wins:
vs Temple
@ Illinois
@ Miami
@ South Carolina
vs Virginia Tech
vs Duke
@ Boston College
vs Maryland
Quality Losses:
vs Wake Forest
@ North Carolina
vs Florida State
@ Virginia Tech
Bad Loss:
at Virginia
Crucial down the stretch games:
at Florida State
vs Virginia
at Wake Forest
* ACC Tourney
If Clemson can win 2/3 games and make a deep run into the ACC Tourney, the Tigers should be no worse than a 4 and lock down a 3. If Clemson sweeps the latter part of the schedule and wins the ACC tourney, they will have a great shot at a 2.
This post was edited on 2/27/09 at 7:10 pm
Posted on 2/27/09 at 7:32 pm to PiscesTiger
I am PROJECTING Miami in. They will have the best résumé of any .500 conference record in the nation. They'll make some noise in the Georgia Dome as well. Trust me, I don't like. Just trying to be realistic about how the committee will view them.
Posted on 2/27/09 at 7:40 pm to BraveTiger225
I gotya...Miami, in that case, MUST win their last two games vs. non-top 50 opponents GT and NC State. Here, for everyone else's benefit, is Miami's resume:
QUALITY WINS:
@ Kentucky
@ Boston College
vs. Maryland
vs. Florida State
vs. Wake Forest
vs. Boston College
QUALITY LOSSES:
vs. U Conn
vs. Ohio State
vs. Clemson
@ UNC
@ VA Tech
vs. UNC
@ Maryland
@ Duke
@ Florida State
BAD LOSSES:
NC State (who is still 15-11 and 5-8 in the best conference in NCAA)
*Miami is very much in the same realm as Tennessee. They have an impressive schedule and it's very respectable. They, like UT, have fewer quality wins than they do quality games. The idea is reward for the schedule, but take care of the schedule. 6-9 vs. top 50 and 2-7 vs. Top 25...Miami needs to at least win their next 4 games, includng two rounds of the tourney. They may even need three.
QUALITY WINS:
@ Kentucky
@ Boston College
vs. Maryland
vs. Florida State
vs. Wake Forest
vs. Boston College
QUALITY LOSSES:
vs. U Conn
vs. Ohio State
vs. Clemson
@ UNC
@ VA Tech
vs. UNC
@ Maryland
@ Duke
@ Florida State
BAD LOSSES:
NC State (who is still 15-11 and 5-8 in the best conference in NCAA)
*Miami is very much in the same realm as Tennessee. They have an impressive schedule and it's very respectable. They, like UT, have fewer quality wins than they do quality games. The idea is reward for the schedule, but take care of the schedule. 6-9 vs. top 50 and 2-7 vs. Top 25...Miami needs to at least win their next 4 games, includng two rounds of the tourney. They may even need three.
This post was edited on 2/27/09 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 2/27/09 at 7:56 pm to PiscesTiger
Not looking good for Siena. Down 9 with 2:30 left against Niagara. They're gonna have to survive the MAAC tournament.
ETA: Final score - Niagara 100, Siena 85.
ETA: Final score - Niagara 100, Siena 85.
This post was edited on 2/27/09 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 2/27/09 at 10:44 pm to PiscesTiger
quote:
2/27 Sweet 16 projections:
kansas in the final four with those projections!!!
Posted on 2/28/09 at 3:47 am to BraveTiger225
Niagara needs a seed bump!
Posted on 2/28/09 at 3:57 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
kansas in the final four with those projections!!!
They can get in the Final 4 no matter...they're on fire.
Posted on 2/28/09 at 9:56 am to BraveTiger225
quote:
MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
Dayton
(1) PITTSBURGH vs. ALABAMA STATE/ROBERT MORRIS
(8) Boston College vs. (9) Ohio State
Pretty generous, IMO, to put a 9 seed approx 75 miles from their home court for a first and second round game and also closer than the #1 seed, if we played them in the second round (then again, the committee did this to us two years ago, when we were the 1 and had to play #8/9 [can't remember which] Xavier in Lexington, KY.)
This post was edited on 2/28/09 at 9:58 am
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