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Started By
Message
re: Bracketology - UPDATED 3/15
Posted on 3/11/09 at 10:04 am to PiscesTiger
Posted on 3/11/09 at 10:04 am to PiscesTiger
quote:
Automatic bids from the minor conferences make it hell to do this thing.
The small conferences are easy at the end of the day. What's the difference between Portland St and Weber St, really? The killer are the mid-majors: Horizon, MVC, MAC, MWC... those things are killers. Butler taking a swan dive made things difficult.
1
Posted on 3/11/09 at 10:36 am to TxTiger25
quote:
So Oklahoma State, a 9 seed, is one of the last 5 in, while Arizona, a 12 seed, isn't one of the last 5 in?
I wasupdating and then had to go. It's constantly an updating process.
quote:
appreciate all the work you do on this, but can't we just get a link to Joe Lunardi's work?
Link it up. We do this for fun.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 10:37 am to Baloo
Yeah Butler made me even put LSU in a new region because of their tank.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 10:39 am to LuckyLee
quote:
So if AU beats UF, you think that by itself is enough?
Yeah. One more would definitely get them in.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:10 am to PiscesTiger
I disagree. We have completely different reads on the SEC. I think it is God awful. Right now, I think the SEC only has two teams solidly in the field -- LSU and Tennessee -- and Tennessee can still find a way to screw it up.
Look at these records vs. the RPI top 50:
USC 1-5
Florida 2-6
Auburn 2-5
That's awful. That's mid-major kind of records. And even mid-major bubble teams look slightly better vs the RPI top 50:
Creighton 2-2
New Mexico 3-5
St Mary's 2-3
I think the SEC bubble teams are in deep, deep trouble.
Look at these records vs. the RPI top 50:
USC 1-5
Florida 2-6
Auburn 2-5
That's awful. That's mid-major kind of records. And even mid-major bubble teams look slightly better vs the RPI top 50:
Creighton 2-2
New Mexico 3-5
St Mary's 2-3
I think the SEC bubble teams are in deep, deep trouble.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:19 am to Baloo
quote:
East (Boston)
DAYTON
1 Louisville vs 16 CORNELL
8 Utah vs 9 Oklahoma State
KANSAS CITY
5 Florida State vs 12 Arizona
4 PURDUE vs 13 VA COMMONWEALTH
MIAMI
6 Arizona State vs 11 South Carolina
3 Villanova vs 14 BUFFALO
GREENSBORO
7 Texas vs 10 Ohio State
2 Duke vs 15 BINGHAMTON
the ville rolls in this bracket
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:28 am to Ron Mexico
Yeah, you'd much rather be Louisville in Pisces' projection than mine. Some potentially tough games every step of the way.
As for Auburn, I don't agree with the one win. Not a single good OOC win and a bad loss to Mercer. Even within conference, their only good wins are against LSU and Tennessee. Yes those are the two tourney locks in the league, but that doesn't mean as much this year.
Auburn has to get to the championship game, and even that may not be enough.
As for Auburn, I don't agree with the one win. Not a single good OOC win and a bad loss to Mercer. Even within conference, their only good wins are against LSU and Tennessee. Yes those are the two tourney locks in the league, but that doesn't mean as much this year.
Auburn has to get to the championship game, and even that may not be enough.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:30 am to BraveTiger225
only thing is you know that the committee rewards great play at the end, regardless of whether it warrants a bid based on body of work. thier L10 is very strong
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:32 am to Ron Mexico
L10, yes. Unfortunately it's last 12 now. They extended it a couple of years back.
8-2 in the last 10
but
9-3 in the last 12....not SUPER strong considering they have wins, in that stretch, over UT-Pan American, Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama.
8-2 in the last 10
but
9-3 in the last 12....not SUPER strong considering they have wins, in that stretch, over UT-Pan American, Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:37 am to BraveTiger225
Florida's last 12 is ugly. They are 6-6 (going with that 2-7 road record, another negative). But they are 3-5 in their last 8 and 4-6 in their last 10. Which means if they go 1-1 in the tourney, they'll be 5-7 in their last 12.
They could be crashing off the bubble. A loss to Arkansas probably dooms them.
They could be crashing off the bubble. A loss to Arkansas probably dooms them.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 11:39 am to Baloo
quote:
A loss to Arkansas kills their very souls.
Fixed it.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:28 pm to BraveTiger225
Here's my take on AU:
They have won 8/9 and that includes big victories over the only two SEC locks for the tourney - UT and LSU.
The SEC has never had a 10 win team left out of the big dance. I realize the SEC is much weaker this year, but still...
Auburn is the hottest team and the best in the SEC since Feb. A win over UF (unless FLA tanks and loses to Arky) in Tampa would show the committee a lot, if you ask me.
All the #'s certainly contradict my opinion, but that's what this time of year is for.
They have won 8/9 and that includes big victories over the only two SEC locks for the tourney - UT and LSU.
The SEC has never had a 10 win team left out of the big dance. I realize the SEC is much weaker this year, but still...
Auburn is the hottest team and the best in the SEC since Feb. A win over UF (unless FLA tanks and loses to Arky) in Tampa would show the committee a lot, if you ask me.
All the #'s certainly contradict my opinion, but that's what this time of year is for.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:32 pm to Ron Mexico
quote:
the ville rolls in this bracket
Yeah they would, but that's the bracket where I am strongly and somewhat dicey as I predict Purdue to win the Big 10 tourney. Purdue tanks in the 1st round and they could be a 6 or 7 and that would help those like Marquette, LSU, and Florida State - among many more.
If MSU plays ON, no one in that conference will touch them. I like Purdue being the only team to challenge them on a neutral court. Illinois? Maybe.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:35 pm to PiscesTiger
But 10 win major conference teams have been left out. Ohio St last year or Kansas St and Syracuse in 2007, for instance. The committee has shown they will keep out a 10-win major conference team.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:38 pm to Baloo
I don't have AU in my bracket. If they beat UF on Friday - by double-digits - I gotta put 'em in. 9/10 wins and three of those over the other good teams. Mercer and U Mass losses will be their demise.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:42 pm to PiscesTiger
quote:
4 Missouri vs 13 CLEVELAND STATE
I didn't know Cleveland St. was that good at their level...
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:45 pm to PiscesTiger
I think we'll probably have an either/or kind of situation. Either Florida or Auburn will make it, but not both. Unless both tank. Then neither.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:47 pm to Jrv2damac
CLEVELAND STATE
Record: 25-10
Last 12: 10-2
RPI: 55
SOS: 111
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Key wins: Butler, Syracuse
Bad losses: Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Wichita State
They played Butler close every single time, and didn't play horribly against West Virginia. This team could definitely cause problems in the first round. Lunardi actually copied me and put them at 13 as well.
Record: 25-10
Last 12: 10-2
RPI: 55
SOS: 111
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Key wins: Butler, Syracuse
Bad losses: Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Wichita State
They played Butler close every single time, and didn't play horribly against West Virginia. This team could definitely cause problems in the first round. Lunardi actually copied me and put them at 13 as well.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:54 pm to Baloo
quote:
I think we'll probably have an either/or kind of situation. Either Florida or Auburn will make it, but not both. Unless both tank. Then neither.
I don't think either get it at this moment. Slive, even though he leaves the room, may help but UF has tanked of late and Aub's just hasn't beat anyone besides LSU and UT. Last 10/12 great for them but a weak SEC and no ooc wins keeps them out.
Posted on 3/11/09 at 12:55 pm to geauxtigs99
It's hard to judge today. After tomorrow when everyone's tournament gets cranking, we'll know a lot more about the definition of the bubble.
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