Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Derby Hopefuls for this year? | Page 12 | More Sports
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re: Derby Hopefuls for this year?

Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:50 pm to
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:50 pm to
i'm pretty sure ky is going to float away. maybe they can run on a boat?
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:50 pm to
Listen, If Uncle Mo wins I would be shocked more than any other horse. He just can't get the distance. I understand why you wouldn't like Master of Hounds, however (not being a dick) I haven't seen you in many racing thread and I don't want to talk over your head. As I explained in this thread, I'm not sure anyone other than Archx3 and Dialed in can get this distance. The rest of them look horrible coming home at 1 1/8 miles. Master of Hounds last race was his first since the BCJuviTurf. He finished VERY well and just got nipped in the UAE derby. That race was 1 3/16 miles which is further than any of these have gone before. He should get the extra 1/16 of a mile and Kingmambo's don't have issues with dirt. Aiden O'brien opted to come to the derby instead of the 2000 Guineas because he understands his chances here are high. Gomez has told other connections NO waiting on this horse. Gomez wasn't waiting for some pig. The competition you speak of in this race is trash. This is the worst Derby field we have had in some time.
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:51 pm to
No, I don't have your email, and when I send this tell me which race and I'll take a look at it.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:52 pm to
i think jojo knows his stuff. or at least, he seemed to keep up last year ;)

i've been giving people master of hounds, but i've gotta stick with arch. he has yet to do me wrong
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

i've been giving people master of hounds, but i've gotta stick with arch. he has yet to do me wrong



I was just looking for an angle. He just seems to have less questions IMO than others. Plus I'll be getting a great price on him. Pay attention to the EURO bookmakers to see what they think.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:54 pm to
aspercellsu@gmail


it's on the derby undercard
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:59 pm to
You've got mail. I'll look at that other race when it comes out. Churchill is typically the exact opposite of the Keeneland grass.....speed holds much more.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:02 pm to
yeah. i think i saw where they are doing a pick 3 with those races. might as well give it a shot! my first and only pick 4 asmussen nosed me out of a hit but it was fun.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:06 pm to
ok, on the rumor mill....


dialed in supposedly took a bad step but zito says fine. we shall see. watch it turn out to have been totally made up
Posted by jojothetireguy
Live out in Coconut Grove
Member since Jan 2009
10599 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

Bho


No harm done. I don't get in many threads but I do well in my bets. In the big three I've at least hit trifectas in one per year for about the last three or four years. I'm no expert that's for sure and not nearly as knowledgable as you or aspy.
How do yall feel about nehro, he seems to pick up speed late and I think could have pulled the la derby had there been a little longer track.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 7:25 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:26 pm to
i had him in my arky derby exacta and tri

hit the exacta, missed the tri by 1
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:43 pm to
quote:

pick up speed late and I think could have pulled the la derby had there been a little longer trac


The trend for the Derby is you need to be at or within 3 of the lead at the head of the lane. The only exception was a MIRACLE trip from Mine that Bird. I prefer stalkers in large fields than full blown closers(see:Dialed In and Archx3). This race seems as if there won't be much pace which is strike 2 for closers. I actually think the Derby is the worst race of the card to bet. Too many horses and too many questions. I have yet to see a reason to love any of these horses. That is why I don't mind pimping MOH because he will be 30-1 on the ML.

Here:
UAE Derby
Don't worry about anything until mid stretch and watch the horses stride. It's not shortening. They are flat out racing.

Fla Derby

Now, ignore Dialed In, and watch every other horse shorten strides. Shackleford is lugging out(getting tired). While Dialed in's finish was impressive, it's tough to make that up in the derby. Now picture both horses getting good trips until the head of the lane and say Dialed in spot's Master of Hounds five lengths plus. There is no way especially without sharp fractions that he can catch him. What do you all think?
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:53 pm to
loved both of them in that race. where does the filly go next?

i'd love to go to dubai
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:58 pm to
quote:

i'd love to go to dubai



Let's go....no gambling, no drinking.......Nevermind.

quote:

loved both of them in that race. where does the filly go next?



The filly is like a freaking enigma on the net. Google her name and there are 10000000000 posts about some arabic shite. I found it last week, but don't expect to see her over here unless it's Cup time.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 8:06 pm to
we could still have fun!!

we could see some nice ponies. hope she ships over for the cup.

damn, the alysheba looks to be quite the race. i WILL be watching that one
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

last year i put out my little christmas tree and decorated with lights and roses. then i painted small wooden horse shoes and put a number 1-20 on the back. people picked a shoe from the tree.


that's pretty hard core! you having another party this year? you could do some kind of themed party

quote:

and i doubt i bet the oaks, but you know i love me some pretty greys

i'll probably just cheer for katmanblu (at a friend's house because i don't get verses) hate how they are putting so much on that channel this year. it would be nice to watch the draw...


i have Versus back in Shreveport but not here where I'm staying in NOLA. i'm considering driving to Shreve Friday after work and putting together a deal with the boys where we all go to LA Downs to place bets and have some beers then head to my house and grill and watch the Derby.

quote:

and that's tony dutrow i don't hate him, just rick. larry jones got all the fox hill horses when he came out of retirement

rick did lose his fast 3 yr old flashpoint to, i think, wesley ward

karma is a bitch!


ahh yes, thought it was that bastard Rick

pretty disappointed that Toby's is out and being replaced by Kitten.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 9:03 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:05 pm to
will you be in shreveport preakness weekend?

i will. we'll have to gamble together while the boy works. he has 5 in friday

filly goes up either that weekend or the weekend before
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:13 pm to
From Gomez's blog:

quote:

His effort in the UAE Derby on March 26 was very game for his first start of the season, and he only lost by a nose. I've ridden for the folks at Coolmore before and I know they wouldn't send him out here if they didn't think they had a pretty decent chance at winning this race. The way the field looks, he definitely ranks among the classiest in there.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117415 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:14 pm to
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:14 pm to
quote:

will you be in shreveport preakness weekend?


no, i think i'm actually working that day.

and the more I think about it the more i'm liking Brilliant Speed, Twinspired and Soldat. all three colts have proven they can at least show (also some 1sts in there) when running 1 1/16th or further.
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