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Message
re: LA college baseball thread
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:14 am to msutiger
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:14 am to msutiger
There you go again, ruining this thread with your butt-hurtness.
It's not our fault Ruston embarrassed themselves last night. And remember: it's baseball so you can still take the series.
PS. I wouldn't be surprised if you posted regularly on the closed to free speech, totally delusional, mutt board
It's not our fault Ruston embarrassed themselves last night. And remember: it's baseball so you can still take the series.
PS. I wouldn't be surprised if you posted regularly on the closed to free speech, totally delusional, mutt board
This post was edited on 4/22/17 at 11:02 am
0
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:20 am to LaCajunsFan
quote:
Cajuns would have an rpi in the 40's would it not be for the series with St. Peter's we had early in the year
#AlternativeFacts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:21 am to msutiger
RaginPagin can get pretty stupid but Brian (GoneGolfin) is an RPI genius.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:44 am to hendersonshands
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/10/23 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:58 am to msutiger
So RaginPagin has a security issue which blocks people sometimes from entering, but these are some his posts from last year around this time:
quote:
UL Baseball RPI breakdown ...
Overall Record-> 27-13
Home Record -> 17-3
Road Record -> 9-7
Neutral Record -> 1-3
WP -> .67582
OWP -> .59191
OOWP -> .51518
SOS -> .56633
--
RPI -> .59370
RPI Penalties -> 0.00000
Adjusted RPI -> .59370
Adjusted RPI Ranking -> #12
At the present time, a win over Southern Mississippi Tuesday night will improve the Cajuns' RPI to .59820 (presently good for a #9 ranking). A loss would drop the Cajuns' RPI to .59182 (presently good for their current #12 ranking).
Southern Mississippi (29-12) brings a .53887 OWP into the contest. Thus, USM will provide an OWP contribution of .70732 and an OOWP contribution of .54211 to the Cajuns' RPI (after the game is played ... reflects the Cajuns' record added to USM's OWP).
Here are the respective OWP and OOWP contributions for the remainder of the schedule (does not include adding UL's record, which will happen when they play) ...
Current OWP -> .59191
Current OOWP -> .51518
Current SOS -> .56633
(1) @Southern Mississippi (.70732, .53887)
(1) Louisiana Tech (.63889, .50590)
(3) @Texas-Arlington (.53659, .52337)
(3) Appalachian State (.27500, .50341)
(3) @South Alabama (.73171, .51432)
(1) @New Orleans (.61538, .56159)
(3) ULM (.37500, .54701)
Avg. OWP remaining -> .51443
Avg. OOWP remaining -> .52471
Avg. SOS remaining -> .51786
Brian
quote:
The only way to think about this is to project the number of home and road wins the remainder of the way ... then apply the resultant RPI against the current RPI to estimate a ranking. Projecting anything more is futile.
The Cajuns have seven remaining home games and eight remaining road games ...
Ex.
Home (6-1)
Road (4-4)
This yields an RPI of .59121 ... a modest drop of .00249. This would be good for an RPI ranking of #12 in the current rankings. But understand that much of what will actually happen is predicated on how Cajun opponents fare down the stretch (and opponents' opponents) as well as the teams ranked around the Cajuns. There is not much distance between the Cajuns and the #17 spot.
Also, from a committee evaluation standpoint (as discussed before), the games against Southern Mississippi and South Alabama will be important from the perspective of earning a #1 seed (record vs. RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 50).
For those that want to dream, going undefeated the remainder of the way yields (at present) an RPI of .61365 ... good for a #7 RPI ranking at present.
Brian
quote:
#1 UTA playing a more difficult schedule is not in our best interest. This is because their risk of losing is significantly higher ... which damages their all important OWP contribution to our RPI. Yes, their OOWP contribution will be higher, but OWP is considerably more important. Also, since OWP is not weighted for home/road, their OWP contribution to our RPI does not take into consideration whether the games are home vs. road. Tonight's game at Texas A&M is simply another win or loss for our OWP purposes. The most important thing UTA can do for the Cajuns is win ... it matters less against whom.
#2 Do not be fooled by looking at the RPI ranking when assessing whether an opponent will be good for your RPI. It is not about ranking. It is about their OWP contribution and their OOWP contribution (less so) ... IOW, their SOS contribution ... and that is all. For example, playing #111 UTA is more advantage to the Cajuns' RPI than playing #91 Iowa or #77 Valparaiso. In fact, playing #169 Florida A&M would be better than playing these schools.
For purposes of our RPI, it makes no difference whether UTA is RPI Top 100 (or whatever) or not. Whether UTA is Top 100 only contributes to our record vs. RPI Top 100 as part of the selection committee evaluation process. RPI Top 100 is more considered for at-large bubble teams, but is still used for everyone. The more important figures for UL (in the race for a #1 seed) is record vs. RPI Top 25 (peer group) and RPI Top 50.
#3 UTA's RPI breakdown looks like this ...
WP -> .51139 (most relevant to the Cajuns' RPI)
OWP -> .52337 (less relevant to the Cajuns' RPI)
OOWP -> .51547 (irrelevant to the Cajuns' RPI)
--
RPI -> .51840
A UTA loss to Texas A&M tonight and UTA's RPI likely goes up ... but the Cajuns' RPI goes down.
Brian
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:04 am to hendersonshands
Here's another one from May of last year as the tournaments were winding down.
quote:
Here is a Google Doc that assembles the resumes of schools that are either on the bubble for a #1 seed ... or on the bubble for a host regional (Ex. western or northern schools that may or may not be #1 seed material). I have updated the resumes of all the bubble teams above the gray lines ... the ones below will be updated later.
I am positioning this (at the moment) as the following schools are not on the bubble for #1 seeds and would also be regional hosts. Since the last report, Clemson and Florida State have moved off of the bubble and are secure, while Virginia has moved onto the bubble, but I think will be fine with their third place finish in the ACC.
#1 Florida
#2 Louisville
#3 Miami
#4 Texas A&M
#5 Ole Miss
#6 Clemson
#7 LSU
#8 South Carolina
#11 Mississippi State
#12 Florida State
#14 Texas Tech
The above totals ten (11) schools. As such, the above document details the resume of sixteen (16) schools fighting for the final five (5) #1 seeds and regional host spots. Note that one or more could be traveling #1 seeds ... most likely one sent west.
Taking a stab at the next tier of schools, I would say the following would also host as #1 seeds (ordered by RPI) ...
#9 Vanderbilt
#16 Virginia
I like the defending national champions because of their third place finish in the ACC (19-11) and their 11-10 record vs. the RPI Top 25.
The above would yield five (5) regional hosts from the ACC and seven (7) from the SEC. Texas Tech would be the one Big 12 representative in the above.
This yields three spots for the remaining schools. I think the top contenders are ...
#10 North Carolina State, #13 Coastal Carolina, #15 Louisiana, #18 Texas Christian, #19 Southern Mississippi, #22 Dallas Baptist, and one of the western schools. #38 Arizona State, #23 Arizona, #43 Cal-State Fullerton (Big West Champions), and #50 Washington (can win the Pac-12 title today). I do not think any of these western schools will be awarded a #1 seed ... thus this means a #1 seed travels west. This also means that the Cajuns will need to be considered among the top two (of the three) #1 seeds above in order to receive a host regional (assuming there is a western regional) ... as that third #1 seed would be traveling west.
I think that TCU is a #1 seed if they win the Big XII Tournament today. I also think Southern Mississippi has a decent shot at a #1 seed if they win the CUSA title today. Of course ... the Cajuns lost head to head to both TCU (neutral) and Southern Mississippi (road). North Carolina State may be considered the 13th team (among the ACC and SEC) ... and if they are awarded a #1 seed, may be the team that is shipped west. Or ... they are simply granted a #2 seed for finishing 15-13 in conference plus 1-2 in the conference tournament ... and 6-9 down the stretch.
Rice defeating Southern Mississippi helps on two fronts ... it eliminates Southern Mississippi from contention and also secures Rice in the RPI Top 25 for the Cajuns. If Rice loses, there is a decent chance they fall out of the RPI Top 25 (tightly packed).
Brian
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:05 am to hendersonshands
That guy must have been a statistics major in college or something, or just spends WAY TOO MUCH time studying and calculating RPI. Way too much math there for any casual fan to be going through. He's hardcore.
Take that second post for instance. For him to be able to say what RPI the cajuns could finish at, he has to be looking at EVERY opponent's schedule to figure it.
Take that second post for instance. For him to be able to say what RPI the cajuns could finish at, he has to be looking at EVERY opponent's schedule to figure it.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:06 am to hendersonshands
Wow, good for him. Guys know his shite and puts a lot of time into that
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:08 am to Cowboyfan89
A lot of it is that he keeps pretty detailed spreadsheets. The other part of it is that he makes projections for the future based off of the current opponent's win percentage (OWP) and opponent's opponent's win percentage (OOWP), and adding them to a hypothetical win % for the Cajuns.
It's all pretty interesting to read and to see the breakdown. I'm not nearly skilled enough in Excel to create an RPI spreadsheet but it is fun to look at as the season winds down (even though I think RPI is by and large stupid)
It's all pretty interesting to read and to see the breakdown. I'm not nearly skilled enough in Excel to create an RPI spreadsheet but it is fun to look at as the season winds down (even though I think RPI is by and large stupid)
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:12 am to Cowboyfan89
It's obviously his hobby, and one for which he has a passion for. Gotta respect lthat.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:27 am to double d
quote:
Tulane wins at Houston 7-1. Now have a 2 game lead in the conference.
Tulane is playing as good as anyone right now. Wave might be a very dangerous team if they get a regional birth.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 12:53 pm to LaCajunsFan
fricking Peacocks. . .
quote:
Some folks have been asking, so this is the latest ...
The road enhancement multiplier does help the Cajuns significantly here. All other things being equal ... at the current time a sweep over Little Rock would raise the Cajuns' RPI ... to the point where they would be slotted with a #51 RPI ranking using the current rankings. If it were a neutral series, the Cajuns would come in at #53 ... a home series sweep would result in a minuscule drop in RPI (not in ranking).
Winning 2/3 on the road would result in an RPI ranking drop to #62.
And for the answer to the question that is asked weekly ... at the present time, not having had played the Saint Peter's series would result in an RPI ranking of #37.
Meanwhile, a win by Saint Peter's in their next game would lift the Cajuns five spots from their present position ... but mostly because the teams are tightly packed (the actual RPI increase is small).
Brian
Posted on 4/22/17 at 1:14 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
And for the answer to the question that is asked weekly ... at the present time, not having had played the Saint Peter's series would result in an RPI ranking of #37.
#facts
This post was edited on 4/22/17 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 4/22/17 at 4:11 pm to LaCajunsFan
Tech crushing UAB 8-0 today thru 5. Why not throw Nate Harris on Friday against the other team's ace? What a waste
Posted on 4/22/17 at 5:23 pm to EmperorPenguin
Dawgs win 10-2
Posted on 4/22/17 at 6:21 pm to Ole Mule
Cowboys drop Game 2 to Northwestern, 7-4.
Sam Houston lost the first game of a doubleheader with Central Arkansas, 3-2 in 10 innings. Leading 3-2 in the 8th inning of Game 2.
Sam Houston lost the first game of a doubleheader with Central Arkansas, 3-2 in 10 innings. Leading 3-2 in the 8th inning of Game 2.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 9:14 pm to Cowboyfan89
Cajuns swept the double header against Little Rock today. Going for the sweep tomorrow.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 9:22 pm to hendersonshands
Tulane blew a 7-3 lead to Houston and made like 394092039482039 errors in the process.
Gonna get shite stomped tomorrow and miss out on a huge opportunity to win the series.
This is a season-defining loss.
Gonna get shite stomped tomorrow and miss out on a huge opportunity to win the series.
This is a season-defining loss.
Posted on 4/22/17 at 9:31 pm to BayouBengals03
Houston is a solid club. That's gotta be soul crushing to let them off the hook
Posted on 4/22/17 at 9:51 pm to Cowboyfan89
Sam Houston collapses in the 8th and loses Game 2, 5-3. With a win tomorrow, McNeese can go up a game in the standings with a road trip to Huntsville next weekend.
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