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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 3
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:53 am to the_watcher
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:53 am to the_watcher
Dont forget Kansas St and Arizona which both hit
0
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:57 am to the_watcher
quote:
So consensus picks were Oregon Cincy Florida Ok St. I'd say it worked out fine
I don't think that Florida or Oklahoma State were even close to being consensus picks. However, Arizona, Oregon, Cincinnati and Duke were pretty widely bet on as favorites and 3 out of 4 covered.
If you want to make a play on UK this week, go for it! Best of luck!
Now let's get back on track...
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:57 am to the_watcher
quote:
Do you people really play teasers this much? The instant you start betting teasers you become a bookies best friend. If you see multiple posts like "Louisville seems so easy!" and "I HAVE to take Louisville" and you can't see that it's a trap then
Step 1 fade the most popular picks in this thread
Step 2 profit
Teasers are a bad bet.
But your rule is dumb as well. Did you fade me when I went big on FSU? Did you fade Bowling Green last weekend?
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:58 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Why do you like Air Force? I don't really have much of an opinion at all on that game, so i'm just curious.
Boise State's offense since Joe Southwick took over last season is not nearly as efficient. They won't run enough plays to outscore Air Force by 24 points. Air Force will run the ball 50+ times and will have some success against a Rush D that has allowed 5 yards per carry this season.
Boise State led the nation in Points per Play in '09 and '10. They were ranked 6th in the country in '11. That ranking dropped down to 30th in the country in '11 with Southwick pulling the trigger and they are currently ranked 116th in the nation in points per play (Stats don't include games against FCS opponents so this number is misleading.)
Boise isn't making the big plays for quick scores that they used to, largely because Southwick has not been very accurate on the deep ball. I think Air Force puts up 14 points at the very least which means they will need to put up 38 to cover, I don't see that happening. Last time these two played in 2011, Boise ran the ball 65 times and had the ball for over 36 minutes. Boise ran a total of 49 plays, they averaged 75 a game that year. Not a good combination for a team that doesn't have the big play ability that it had back then.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:58 am to the_watcher
quote:
Again TTT gets it
Cherry picking that one game to prove your point makes you look like an idiot.
The consensus picks from last week were: BC, Cincy, Ball St, Oregon, Wyoming, Duke, KState and Arizona.
7-1 on those.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 10:59 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
I don't think that Florida or Oklahoma State were even close to being consensus picks. However, Arizona, Oregon, Cincinnati and Duke were pretty widely bet on as favorites and 3 out of 4 covered.
If you want to make a play on UK this week, go for it! Best of luck!
Now let's get back on track...
Yup, follow Bobby at your own risk. Fade Bobby at your own risk.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:02 am to wish i was tebow
I went
three team parlay
Louisville to cover -14
UCF plus points +6
WKU to cover -10
Four team tease
Louisville - 8
Oregon - 22
WKU -4
Vtech - 1 1/2
Single games
TCU straight up
UCLA straight up(didn't want points think they win)
FAU +13 I don't think USF is even good enough to stop this team from scoring
Ohio +8
I started out with 100 bucks week 1. Up to 340 now. Hopefully by end of week I'm at 500. Once I get to 500 I will string some bigger wagers into it as I do each year. Only have 100 on the line right now, I try not to bet big until I've gained a decent purse first. My four team parlay week 2 fricking banked(thank the lord I left UF out of that one).
Still thinking of setting up on more 3-4 parlay but not wanting to use the teams in the first parlay and teaser(UofL and WKU). Don't like wagering everything on the same teams incase they screw up.
Thinking
Duke +8
UCLA +4 1/2
Arkansas -22
Bowling Green +3
May use that and just put like 20 on it..small bet little risk but would be a decent sized payout.
three team parlay
Louisville to cover -14
UCF plus points +6
WKU to cover -10
Four team tease
Louisville - 8
Oregon - 22
WKU -4
Vtech - 1 1/2
Single games
TCU straight up
UCLA straight up(didn't want points think they win)
FAU +13 I don't think USF is even good enough to stop this team from scoring
Ohio +8
I started out with 100 bucks week 1. Up to 340 now. Hopefully by end of week I'm at 500. Once I get to 500 I will string some bigger wagers into it as I do each year. Only have 100 on the line right now, I try not to bet big until I've gained a decent purse first. My four team parlay week 2 fricking banked(thank the lord I left UF out of that one).
Still thinking of setting up on more 3-4 parlay but not wanting to use the teams in the first parlay and teaser(UofL and WKU). Don't like wagering everything on the same teams incase they screw up.
Thinking
Duke +8
UCLA +4 1/2
Arkansas -22
Bowling Green +3
May use that and just put like 20 on it..small bet little risk but would be a decent sized payout.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:03 am to dgtiger3
quote:
Boise State's offense since Joe Southwick took over last season is not nearly as efficient. They won't run enough plays to outscore Air Force by 24 points. Air Force will run the ball 50+ times and will have some success against a Rush D that has allowed 5 yards per carry this season.
Boise State led the nation in Points per Play in '09 and '10. They were ranked 6th in the country in '11. That ranking dropped down to 30th in the country in '11 with Southwick pulling the trigger and they are currently ranked 116th in the nation in points per play (Stats don't include games against FCS opponents so this number is misleading.)
Boise isn't making the big plays for quick scores that they used to, largely because Southwick has not been very accurate on the deep ball. I think Air Force puts up 14 points at the very least which means they will need to put up 38 to cover, I don't see that happening. Last time these two played in 2011, Boise ran the ball 65 times and had the ball for over 36 minutes. Boise ran a total of 49 plays, they averaged 75 a game that year. Not a good combination for a team that doesn't have the big play ability that it had back then.
Fair analysis.
Another question: why use points per play? Isn't yards per play a superior predictive metric in all aspects? My preferred metric is yards per play play differential (yards per play - yards allowed per play)). Take that data, normalize it so it 's a bit more spread out in its presentation*, tweak with SOS.....profit.
*withholding mother joke
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:04 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Teasers are a bad bet.
Teasers get a bad rep because people try and put together 10 team teasers and think they are a lock to hit.
Teasers can be a valuable tool and can be very profitable.
Especially in the NFL. I believe if you teased all the underdogs last week in the NFL 6 points, you would have had 13 wins, 1 loss, and a push.
This post was edited on 9/11/13 at 11:05 am
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:05 am to 08Gatorbait
quote:
I went
three team parlay
Louisville to cover -14
UCF plus points +6
WKU to cover -10
Four team tease
Louisville - 8
Oregon - 22
WKU -4
Vtech - 1 1/2
Single games
TCU straight up
UCLA straight up(didn't want points think they win)
FAU +13 I don't think USF is even good enough to stop this team from scoring
Ohio +8
I started out with 100 bucks week 1. Up to 340 now. Hopefully by end of week I'm at 500. Once I get to 500 I will string some bigger wagers into it as I do each year. Only have 100 on the line right now, I try not to bet big until I've gained a decent purse first. My four team parlay week 2 fricking banked(thank the lord I left UF out of that one).
Still thinking of setting up on more 3-4 parlay but not wanting to use the teams in the first parlay and teaser(UofL and WKU). Don't like wagering everything on the same teams incase they screw up.
Thinking
Duke +8
UCLA +4 1/2
Arkansas -22
Bowling Green +3
May use that and just put like 20 on it..small bet little risk but would be a decent sized payout.
Toss the remaining $240 on WKU-10.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:07 am to bamafan425
quote:
Teasers get a bad rep because people try and put together 10 team teasers and think they are a lock to hit.
Teasers can be a valuable tool and can be very profitable.
Especially in the NFL. I believe if you teased all the underdogs last week in the NFL 6 points, you would have had 13 wins, 1 loss, and a push.
I agree that they can be a good bet in the NFL where the margins are so tight.
I don't love them in college, though. Let me rephrase: I've never bet on a teaser that wasn't an absolute sure thing....until it misses. They look great when you're betting them, but an even money proposition where three fricking independent events have to work out in your favor is just not a solid play.
If you don't have enough balls to take the game ATS....then just take it on the ML.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:09 am to the_watcher
quote:
Do you people really play teasers this much? The instant you start betting teasers you become a bookies best friend. If you see multiple posts like "Louisville seems so easy!" and "I HAVE to take Louisville" and you can't see that it's a trap then
Step 1 fade the most popular picks in this thread
Step 2 profit
So I'm guessing you took Virginia. You have to find your own line of what is a trap and is not.
The louisville game smells fishy, but I've watched both teams play both games this season. UofL is 14 better. Kentucky can't tackle, runs bad routes to the ball, QB is inconsistent. It's a rivalry game, and has been close in recent past. But this "trap" doesn't feel too scary. I didn't bet cincy last week :P. Did lose out on Florida though but it's not like Vegas can predict 4 red zone turnovers. That game is played 10 times Florida wins 8 of them and I feel comfortable betting on those odds.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:11 am to bamafan425
quote:
Teasers get a bad rep because people try and put together 10 team teasers and think they are a lock to hit.
Teasers can be a valuable tool and can be very profitable.
Especially in the NFL. I believe if you teased all the underdogs last week in the NFL 6 points, you would have had 13 wins, 1 loss, and a push.
This. I use teasers for teams I know will win, but don't like the line. I have a ton of success with teasers. Money may not be as big but I just want to gain each week till about week 6-7. Then I start hitting big bets. I won't use a teaser after week 6, but it helps build the purse on games that are easy if you lower the spread. Oregon -21 on Tennessee is about as sure as anything gets.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:11 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Fair analysis. Another question: why use points per play? Isn't yards per play a superior predictive metric in all aspects? My preferred metric is yards per play play differential (yards per play - yards allowed per play)). Take that data, normalize it so it 's a bit more spread out in its presentation*, tweak with SOS.....profit.
Fair question. I do use yards per play. I have an algorithm I designed in excel that weights yards per play for every team running and throwing on both sides of the ball. I then adjust them according to who they have played against . It's been a pretty beneficial resource for me, I know there are websites like football outsiders with similar data, but I like to understand what I'm looking at inside out, so I build them myself.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:12 am to bobbyray21
I don't tease any games with lines set above 14 and rarely tease totals.
Though Bama -1.5 and under 69 looks nice.
Though Bama -1.5 and under 69 looks nice.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:15 am to dgtiger3
quote:
I do use yards per play.
Doc Sports used this a while back, but tossed out the big plays.
Two 1 yard runs followed by a 5 yard slant route that goes 78 due to bad tackling would skew a YPP analysis.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:19 am to Captain Ron
I should dig out some research sheets I had last year. RAS had me do some game research for him later in the season. He had specific stats he wanted from previous games. It was quite detailed.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:19 am to Captain Ron
quote:
Doc Sports used this a while back, but tossed out the big plays. Two 1 yard runs followed by a 5 yard slant route that goes 78 due to bad tackling would skew a YPP analysis.
Exactly what I do. Anything over 30 yards is counted as a 30 yard play. Helps paint a clearer picture.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:22 am to bobbyray21
quote:
But your rule is dumb as well. Did you fade me when I went big on FSU? Did you fade Bowling Green last weekend?
Would not just fade some random post only top 3 to 4 consensus picks. FSU had a bye this week so you obviously meant their week 1 cover vs Pitt. I'm also assuming that would have been a popular pick and I never claimed the top picks would all lose every time no matter what. Didn't read the week 1 thread. To the poster who listed the 7-1 record I don't think you understand what "consensus" means.
Most picked bets of the week 3 thread so far - Louisville, Oregon, maybe WKU? Someone correct me if I'm wrong
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:24 am to the_watcher
quote:
To the poster who listed the 7-1 record I don't think you understand what "consensus" means.
Multiple people supporting the same side?
It doesn't have to be the entire thread to make it a consensus.
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