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Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 4
Posted on 9/18/13 at 3:59 pm to bobbyray21
Posted on 9/18/13 at 3:59 pm to bobbyray21
Boy do you get jacked up lines then. They always seem higher than the rest.
Updated Card:
5* LSU-16.5
4* Michigan-17.5
2.5* Baylor-28
2.5* Marshall+9
Only other play will be Baylor 1st half line. Hoping its 14. Doubt it but if so will be 5*
Updated Card:
5* LSU-16.5
4* Michigan-17.5
2.5* Baylor-28
2.5* Marshall+9
Only other play will be Baylor 1st half line. Hoping its 14. Doubt it but if so will be 5*
1
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:24 pm to blades8088
Why is everyone in love with Baylor?
Posted on 9/18/13 at 5:25 pm to ChemE in the OP
Why not. They have a very high powered O and a pretty good damn defense. Not saying they have played anybody cause they havent but ULM is a nobody also. Oklahoma sucks and they beat em 34-0. So should baylor
Posted on 9/18/13 at 5:45 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Why is everyone in love with Baylor?
I commented on my thoughts/concerns a few pages back about the Baylor team and our offense and concerns on defense.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 5:52 pm to BeYou
You dont like it?
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:10 pm to blades8088
quote:
You dont like it?
I just have a hard time staying unbiased towards Baylor, since it is my favorite team.
Offensive wise, we will score at will and when we want. Our first team offense is scoring touchdowns on 82% of their possessions (as a team 67% of our drives have ended in a TD this season). Briles said this week he will keep starters in much longer even if the game is a blowout because they need more time playing before our 1st conference game (1st team offense has only played 1/2 game through first two games).
So I think we will score 60+.
Now our unproved defense. Our defense has greatly improved its pass rush. Not sure on the state of ULM offensive line. However, our secondary (our biggest weakness last season) has not proven that it has improved. Browning and ULM throw the ball a majority of the time and we will see if our secondary has improved. We returned 3/4 starters in our secondary fwiw. Overall, our defense has improved and is better than last season, just not sure how much better.
I questioned whether Baylor could cover the line the first two games of this season and they EASILY covered both of them. The lines where like -21 and -28 and both games we won by 60. The low lines were because we weren't sure if our offense would be as effective with a new QB. However, we found out our offense is just as effective if not more effective.
I think you are good to -28.
This post was edited on 9/18/13 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:14 pm to BeYou
I agree. I get where your coming from with the unproved defense but its ULM. Not the sooners. They dont have to be great to shut them down to an extent
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:18 pm to blades8088
quote:
I agree. I get where your coming from with the unproved defense but its ULM. Not the sooners. They dont have to be great to shut them down to an extent
Our defense is really that bad. Then again, I am probably overplaying how bad our defense is. We gave up 40+ to them last year though. Not sure how many they lost on offense from last season.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:22 pm to blades8088
My plays this week
Georgia Tech -6. Georgia Tech steamrolled UNC last year in Chapel Hill. North Carolina will have issues stopping the run, and I like Georgia Tech's offense here to cover that 6 point spread. One concerning thing is that UNC has had 2 weeks to prepare for this triple option, but offensively won't have what it takes to exploit Georgia Tech's defense. Both teams have defensive issues.
Troy +14.5 Troy battled last year in a loss. I don't care who Troy has played so far, their QB Corey Robinson has impressed me. Mississippi State has offensive issues and will be a bit hungover from the loss last week. Troy will have the offense to keep up.
Baylor/UL Monroe OVER 74 Playing the over on such a high total is always a risk, however both teams scored at will on each other last year and that should be the same again this year. Baylor has defensive issues still, don't be fooled by their "defense" against Buffalo(who sucks, only scored 26 against Stony Brook last week despite 5 overtimes) and Wofford. UL Monroe, though shutout against Oklahoma, still has more of a potent offense than either. And Baylor, their offense will not be slowed down by UL Monroe. This has all the makings of a 56-31 game, and an over.
Wyoming/Air Force UNDER 66.5 Both teams have some offensive issues. I know Wyoming scored 34 against Nebraska, but they have taken a while to get going in games against Northern Colorado and Idaho. That is not good for a team like Air Force that milks the clock. Air Force is at home, and will do the ball control dance at home. I don't see either team getting to 30.
Utah/BYU Under 62 This is a really high total for two defensive minded teams that have trouble throwing the ball. It is also Utah's first road game of the year. I know Utah scored 30 against Utah State, 70 against Weber and 48 against Oregon State. BUT... BYU is a better defensive team than any of those 3. And we all saw how BYU struggled against Virginia. Hello, game in the 20s.
SMU +28.5 I hate playing SMU, they never cover, and they don't have the run game to exploit the A&M defense. So why do I like playing SMU here? Because of the hangover effect that will plague A&M on Saturday. They just won't be up for this one like they have been for Alabama and even Rice(to shut up all the "haters"). Also, A&M wants to play it safe with Arkansas next week. SMU's defense is better than Rice's. SMU will have a lot of trouble on Saturday against A&M, but 28.5 points should be enough if the final score is along the lines of 49-21. That hook is big.
Colorado State +40 With Alabama continuing to be a big public play, the narrative here will be if Saban wants to run it up against his old pal McElwain. I don't think he will. Saban calls off the dogs in the 2nd quarter and plays it really safe, and milks the clock for all it is worth. Alabama will score around 42. Will Colorado State get shut out? I don't think so.
Rutgers -1 Arkansas faces its first real test, and first road game. Rutgers will be fired up to win this one, and lets face it, will have the better offense. Their offense impressed me against Fresno, and Arkansas has not impressed me at all offensively this year. Defenses will be a wash, so give me the home team.
Florida State -39 Jimbo Fisher loves to run it up. Especially against FCS. They ran it up against UNR last weekend in a 62-7 win, this will be a similar rout.
Georgia Tech -6. Georgia Tech steamrolled UNC last year in Chapel Hill. North Carolina will have issues stopping the run, and I like Georgia Tech's offense here to cover that 6 point spread. One concerning thing is that UNC has had 2 weeks to prepare for this triple option, but offensively won't have what it takes to exploit Georgia Tech's defense. Both teams have defensive issues.
Troy +14.5 Troy battled last year in a loss. I don't care who Troy has played so far, their QB Corey Robinson has impressed me. Mississippi State has offensive issues and will be a bit hungover from the loss last week. Troy will have the offense to keep up.
Baylor/UL Monroe OVER 74 Playing the over on such a high total is always a risk, however both teams scored at will on each other last year and that should be the same again this year. Baylor has defensive issues still, don't be fooled by their "defense" against Buffalo(who sucks, only scored 26 against Stony Brook last week despite 5 overtimes) and Wofford. UL Monroe, though shutout against Oklahoma, still has more of a potent offense than either. And Baylor, their offense will not be slowed down by UL Monroe. This has all the makings of a 56-31 game, and an over.
Wyoming/Air Force UNDER 66.5 Both teams have some offensive issues. I know Wyoming scored 34 against Nebraska, but they have taken a while to get going in games against Northern Colorado and Idaho. That is not good for a team like Air Force that milks the clock. Air Force is at home, and will do the ball control dance at home. I don't see either team getting to 30.
Utah/BYU Under 62 This is a really high total for two defensive minded teams that have trouble throwing the ball. It is also Utah's first road game of the year. I know Utah scored 30 against Utah State, 70 against Weber and 48 against Oregon State. BUT... BYU is a better defensive team than any of those 3. And we all saw how BYU struggled against Virginia. Hello, game in the 20s.
SMU +28.5 I hate playing SMU, they never cover, and they don't have the run game to exploit the A&M defense. So why do I like playing SMU here? Because of the hangover effect that will plague A&M on Saturday. They just won't be up for this one like they have been for Alabama and even Rice(to shut up all the "haters"). Also, A&M wants to play it safe with Arkansas next week. SMU's defense is better than Rice's. SMU will have a lot of trouble on Saturday against A&M, but 28.5 points should be enough if the final score is along the lines of 49-21. That hook is big.
Colorado State +40 With Alabama continuing to be a big public play, the narrative here will be if Saban wants to run it up against his old pal McElwain. I don't think he will. Saban calls off the dogs in the 2nd quarter and plays it really safe, and milks the clock for all it is worth. Alabama will score around 42. Will Colorado State get shut out? I don't think so.
Rutgers -1 Arkansas faces its first real test, and first road game. Rutgers will be fired up to win this one, and lets face it, will have the better offense. Their offense impressed me against Fresno, and Arkansas has not impressed me at all offensively this year. Defenses will be a wash, so give me the home team.
Florida State -39 Jimbo Fisher loves to run it up. Especially against FCS. They ran it up against UNR last weekend in a 62-7 win, this will be a similar rout.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:24 pm to goldennugget
Love love love the BYU under. 
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:24 pm to goldennugget
6 point 3 team teaser: LSU -11.5, Georgia Tech PK, Louisiana Monroe/Baylor over 69
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:25 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Love love love the BYU under.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 6:48 pm to goldennugget
I'm going to go more in-depth tomorrow but here are the games that I will most likely be on this weekend.
Michigan State +7
Rice +3
SMU +28.5
NC State +14.5 (waiting to buy the hook, I'm positive it will go up to 14.5 tomorrow at some point.)
Texas State +26.5
Stanford -7.5
Michigan State +7
Rice +3
SMU +28.5
NC State +14.5 (waiting to buy the hook, I'm positive it will go up to 14.5 tomorrow at some point.)
Texas State +26.5
Stanford -7.5
Posted on 9/18/13 at 7:05 pm to dgtiger3
With you on everything but NC State
Posted on 9/18/13 at 7:51 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
I think Clemson -14.5 is the squarest play of the year so far. With that said, staying far away from that game.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 7:52 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Just a heads up on sportsbook in Game of the year. They currently have Ole Miss -1 on A&M.
I threw down some on A&M (to hedge my emotions) but I think in all honestly that's a pretty easy bet.
I threw down some on A&M (to hedge my emotions) but I think in all honestly that's a pretty easy bet.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 7:52 pm to goldennugget
My square arse is down on -13.5
Posted on 9/18/13 at 7:54 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
What turns people off about Clemson -13.5/-14 tomorrow?
What can NCState do to stop them? Or can they score to keep within 14 points?
Serious question, I don't know anything about NC State this year.
What can NCState do to stop them? Or can they score to keep within 14 points?
Serious question, I don't know anything about NC State this year.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 8:18 pm to BeYou
quote:
What turns people off about Clemson -13.5/-14 tomorrow? What can NCState do to stop them? Or can they score to keep within 14 points? Serious question, I don't know anything about NC State this year.
Thursday Night curse, for one.
Two, 14 is a lot to lay on the road on a Thursday Night.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 8:18 pm to BeYou
NC State has looked like shite since their starting QB went down. With that said, this has a Louisville/UK feel to it, but I'll take my chances.
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