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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 6
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:39 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:39 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I went to create a Sportsbook acct, but LA payouts are excluded. Any ways around this unless you own a residence somewhere else?
1
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:42 pm to wish i was tebow
Yuuup. This will be a great late night play after seeing how the day goes
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:45 pm to Louie T
quote:
I went to create a Sportsbook acct, but LA payouts are excluded. Any ways around this unless you own a residence somewhere else?
Go get a Pakmail box in Alabama?
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:47 pm to bobbyray21
But you are justifying laying worse odds by using historical percentages.
Plus it didn't even look like he had any favorites that were below -7. Rarely do you see teases with both teams at -6.
Plus it didn't even look like he had any favorites that were below -7. Rarely do you see teases with both teams at -6.
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:47 pm to bobbyray21
thinking LSU, UGA, ASU, OVER STANFORD teaser coming up.
will look for other games
probably play Miami. They have been good so far. GT D is pretty good. Will look at the Under in that game as well. Think Miami will be okay stopping the option
will look for other games
probably play Miami. They have been good so far. GT D is pretty good. Will look at the Under in that game as well. Think Miami will be okay stopping the option
This post was edited on 10/1/13 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 10/1/13 at 1:55 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
Stanford has been rolling on Offense
Stanford is a mismatch against most Pac - 12 defenses. Everyone is going to 3-4 bases and a lot of the linebackers are really converted safeties. Luckily the Ducks have size and depth with their down linemen and we have some OLBs with "sand in their pants." ASU is a 4-3 but they are using linebackers at DE. Against Wisconsin they were blitzing the boundary side CB on almost any running down to make up for this. UW is a small defense as well. It works for most teams but it will give up a lot to Stanford, imo.
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:00 pm to bamafan425
quote:
(1)
But you are justifying laying worse odds by using historical percentages.
(2)
Plus it didn't even look like he had any favorites that were below -7. Rarely do you see teases with both teams at -6.
(1)
I don't think you're following what I'm doing. It's an expected value analysis setting all things equal. You could change the historical percentages and the ML plays would still be better plays than the tease. Hell, you could insert your own expected winning percentages and the ML plays are always going to be better than the teaser. It's just a different way to make the same bet, but with better EV. Try the numbers yourself.
(2)
...which only makes my hypoethical stronger. Take what I already listed and add in the additional chances that one of two -8 teams teased down to -2 either pushes or loses.
This post was edited on 10/1/13 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:03 pm to bobbyray21
Who wants to talk me out of New Mexico at -9 and/or New Mexico at -350?
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:04 pm to bobbyray21
To much to read
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:30 pm to bobbyray21
Why are you risking the same amount each bet instead of using an amount 'to win' as the commonality?
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:40 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
(2)
...which only makes my hypoethical stronger. Take what I already listed and add in the additional chances that one of two -8 teams teased down to -2 either pushes or loses.
quote:
The name Wong teaser originates because the concept was popularized in the book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It can alternately be seen by other names including a basic strategy teaser. A Wong teaser is a two-game teaser in which teasing the spread moves it through the two key numbers of three and seven. In other words, it's a teaser involving favorites of between 7.5 and 8.5 or underdogs of between 1.5 and 2.5. If a line is reasonably accurate then you can assume about a 50 percent chance of either team covering. If the odds were -110 then you need to win about 52.4 percent of your bets to break even. To win 52.4 percent of your teasers you need to be able to win the individual games approximately 72.5 percent of the time. Because games end up being decided by three and seven more than 22 percent of the time, teasing through these two numbers increases the chances of covering a spread from about 50 percent to 72 percent or more (It's actually better than that because you are also covering the numbers four, five and six, and games can also finish with those margins as well). Over the long term, then, Wong teasers are one of the few places in betting where there is a positive expectation. In other words, Wong teasers are very good for your bankroll.
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:40 pm to bamafan425
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:51 pm to bamafan425
Boooooooring
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:55 pm to blades8088
Missing some good info if you don't look into the numbers of betting. 
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:56 pm to blades8088
God damnit I didn't know this was fricking math class.
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:57 pm to bamafan425
I don't bet MLs and shite anyway
Don't tease very much either
Don't tease very much either
Posted on 10/1/13 at 2:57 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
This post was edited on 10/1/13 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 10/1/13 at 3:07 pm to blades8088
The only number bobby ray needs to worry about is fiddy... Cause that's how many points Gawga is about to shove up ole smokies arse
Posted on 10/1/13 at 3:36 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Back to college football
Posted on 10/1/13 at 3:36 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Any time we throw Wong into the discussion I'm listening. He has provided a few different blueprints for how to be a profitable gambler (namely at blackjack).
I'm really against 3 team teasers this will probably be the only one I play all year.
I'm really against 3 team teasers this will probably be the only one I play all year.
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