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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 12/15/15 at 12:31 pm to PeteRose
First bowl play likely to be BYU, watching the number.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 12:42 pm to ChemE in the OP
3units Bama -9.5
Posted on 12/15/15 at 12:45 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
They haven't gone over 50 in 10 years. I think Navy might reach that total on their own.
Fail. Thanks Navy.
Nice start for me.
Looking at La Tech for now.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 12:49 pm to bayoucracka
You guys ever track conferences in the early bowl games and play on the stronger conferences in the later games? I've heard of people having success with that, but never tried it.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 3:24 pm to bayoucracka
There is a system where if I take lower ranked team with higher difficulty schedule vs higher ranked team with easier strength of schedule. I think you get value from this angles based on a team's perception. And it's good to take teams+ points if they are more battle tested.
Now I sometimes bet against this system if I find an angle that warrants it.
Now I sometimes bet against this system if I find an angle that warrants it.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 3:29 pm to bayoucracka
Also, I stated last year that if you be the underdog, it's better to take money line as the points don't come in as often as you think. Look at last year's record and the year before, you'd be surprised how often the poinspreads come into play.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 5:06 pm to PeteRose
Which method are you using for strength of schedule?
Posted on 12/15/15 at 5:47 pm to bayoucracka
Early bet splits via @DaveMasonBOL
Miss St 92%
Utah 85%
USC 85%
LSU 84%
W. Mich 83%
Temple & Col St 82%
Wash St 80%
Indiana 80%
Mich 80%
Miss St 92%
Utah 85%
USC 85%
LSU 84%
W. Mich 83%
Temple & Col St 82%
Wash St 80%
Indiana 80%
Mich 80%
Posted on 12/15/15 at 5:58 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Miss St 92% Utah 85% USC 85% LSU 84% W. Mich 83% Temple & Col St 82% Wash St 80% Indiana 80% Mich 80%
I am not on any of those
Posted on 12/15/15 at 8:28 pm to bayoucracka
Sagarin lower rank with better strength of schedule vs higher ranked with lower strength of schedule.
It usually hits 57-59% for me. I use it as a guide as appose to a automatic play.
It usually hits 57-59% for me. I use it as a guide as appose to a automatic play.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 8:31 pm to PeteRose
Over clem 65
under Akron 49
miami+3
Sprinkle on Miami ml +135 (will keep ML seperately)
under Akron 49
miami+3
Sprinkle on Miami ml +135 (will keep ML seperately)
Posted on 12/15/15 at 11:45 pm to TheOcean
quote:
'm down to lose some $
I'm not.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 11:45 pm to SystemsGo
Utah-2.5 is my first play of the bowl season.
This post was edited on 12/15/15 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 12/15/15 at 11:50 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Placed a 3x wager on Bama EV to win NC
I got it at 11-10 in the middle of the SECCG.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 11:51 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
93% of the bets on OU :lol)
Posted on 12/15/15 at 11:54 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Oklahoma has been propped up by the media for the last few months and the public has jumped on board
I guess the public is smart. Good for them.
2015 TEAM SCHEDULE & RESULTS
Date Opponent Closing Line Total Result ATS
Sep 5 Akron Zips -31 57 Won 41 - 3 Win / Under
Sep 12 @ Tennessee Volunteers -2 63 Won 31 - 24 Win / Under
Sep 19 Tulsa Golden Hurricane -32 71 Won 52 - 38 Loss / Over
Oct 3 West Virginia Mountaineers -6.5 60 Won 44 - 24 Win / Over
Oct 10 @ Texas Longhorns -16 60 Lost 17 - 24 Loss / Under
Oct 17 @ Kansas State Wildcats -4 53 Won 55 - 0 Win / Over
Oct 24 Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 72 Won 63 - 27 Win / Over
Oct 31 @ Kansas Jayhawks -39.5 60 Won 62 - 7 Win / Over
Nov 7 Iowa State Cyclones -25 57 Won 52 - 16 Win / Over
Nov 14 @ Baylor Bears 2 76 Won 44 - 34 Win / Over
Nov 21 Texas Christian Horned Frogs -19 64 Won 30 - 29 Loss / Under
Nov 28 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys -7.5 63 Won 58 - 23 Win / Over
Fwiw, I have no opinion on this game, but your narrative is about as lazy narratives come. How about you just look at the teams and handicap the game?
Posted on 12/16/15 at 12:10 am to PeteRose
quote:
Also, I stated last year that if you be the underdog, it's better to take money line as the points don't come in as often as you think. Look at last year's record and the year before, you'd be surprised how often the poinspreads come into play.
Big underdogs on the ML is actually not a terrible strategy for bowls.
Posted on 12/17/15 at 8:00 am to SystemsGo
First Bowl Season Play ~
BYU +3 (-115)
Leggo!
BYU +3 (-115)
Leggo!
Posted on 12/18/15 at 7:22 am to ChemE in the OP
Added LSU -6.5 (-120) as well...
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