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Started By
Message
re: Official NFL Week 2 Bet Thread
Posted on 9/15/15 at 2:28 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 9/15/15 at 2:28 pm to SirWinston
quote:
he 4-team 12 point teaser o' the week will be: Dolphins +6 / Baltimore +9 / Green Bay +9 / New Orleans +2
Why would you tease down to +2 when you could have +22 in the NFL. If the Saints lose it would be in the 3's more than likely anyways.
1
Posted on 9/15/15 at 2:32 pm to ball hard
TB was lucky to only lose by 28 points in week 1.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 2:52 pm to PeteRose
Point taken - I am conscious of that but I really like GB a ton and honestly don't mind the 6.5 - they are my "anchor" of the week and if they lose I will be surprised. If they lose by more than 6 at home I'll be stunned. I also think that with the new extra point system coupled with GB's higher scoring propensity the difference between 6 and 7 points is less than it's ever been before.
I agree that teasers are losers mathematically, but I modify the Wong teaser formula to cross the key numbers AND have a constant "anchor" in each teaser. Not all legs of the teasers are created equal. If I have 85% confidence in GB and LSU this weekend +10 and 90% confidence in them at +12 then I'd just theoretically nail those two and hope to hit 70% or better of the remaining legs and be in the black.
Granted, if your "anchor" leg loses, you are absolutely fricked for the week. If this only happens 1 or 2 times all season you will almost certainly be very profitable though, because you have just effectively reduced 3-team teasers to 2-team teasers, 4-team teasers to 3-team teasers, and so on and your "good" weeks will be more consistently "good" than your bad. I was fortunate to enter last week up huge due to some nice MLB hits as I began placing my football teasers. Then as my early week NCAAFB legs hit, I felt confident adding more teasers as the week progressed.
Think about your "best" pick each week. Now add 12 points in your favor to it. If you can go (best pick) + (12 points) and pass 15 out of 17 times you will almost certainly be profitable for the year. I'd estimate that I'd hit my "best pick" against the spread 65% of time when I'm on (the catch is there's usually only 1 or 2 games each week that I feel this strongly about). If I add 12 points to my "best pick" I'd estimate that I hit it 80% to 90% of the time. I'm sorry that I haven't tracked it prior to this year, but I've started tracking it now.
Last week my "anchor" legs were Ohio State, Utah, New England and Green Bay (although I wasn't too heavy on any of these). This week I'm using Green Bay and LSU as my "anchor" legs - very heavily. If/when both GB and LSU hit, I should then hit 66% to 100% of my teasers. If/when either of them lose it would be a shitty week.
I agree that teasers are losers mathematically, but I modify the Wong teaser formula to cross the key numbers AND have a constant "anchor" in each teaser. Not all legs of the teasers are created equal. If I have 85% confidence in GB and LSU this weekend +10 and 90% confidence in them at +12 then I'd just theoretically nail those two and hope to hit 70% or better of the remaining legs and be in the black.
Granted, if your "anchor" leg loses, you are absolutely fricked for the week. If this only happens 1 or 2 times all season you will almost certainly be very profitable though, because you have just effectively reduced 3-team teasers to 2-team teasers, 4-team teasers to 3-team teasers, and so on and your "good" weeks will be more consistently "good" than your bad. I was fortunate to enter last week up huge due to some nice MLB hits as I began placing my football teasers. Then as my early week NCAAFB legs hit, I felt confident adding more teasers as the week progressed.
Think about your "best" pick each week. Now add 12 points in your favor to it. If you can go (best pick) + (12 points) and pass 15 out of 17 times you will almost certainly be profitable for the year. I'd estimate that I'd hit my "best pick" against the spread 65% of time when I'm on (the catch is there's usually only 1 or 2 games each week that I feel this strongly about). If I add 12 points to my "best pick" I'd estimate that I hit it 80% to 90% of the time. I'm sorry that I haven't tracked it prior to this year, but I've started tracking it now.
Last week my "anchor" legs were Ohio State, Utah, New England and Green Bay (although I wasn't too heavy on any of these). This week I'm using Green Bay and LSU as my "anchor" legs - very heavily. If/when both GB and LSU hit, I should then hit 66% to 100% of my teasers. If/when either of them lose it would be a shitty week.
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 9/15/15 at 3:50 pm to SirWinston
Thanks for sharing your methodology there, SW. Very interesting stuff. 
For shits n giggles I'm on this teaser for -120:
CHI +14.5 vs ARI
NE +11.5 @ BUF
TEN +12 @ CLE
PHI +8.5 vs DAL
Good value in those numbers.
For shits n giggles I'm on this teaser for -120:
CHI +14.5 vs ARI
NE +11.5 @ BUF
TEN +12 @ CLE
PHI +8.5 vs DAL
Good value in those numbers.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 3:53 pm to Hodson2Fuller
KC -3 looks too good, broncos looks terrible but I hate betting against manning in prime time
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:03 pm to tigerNation09
If anything I'd play the under Thursday night, looking like a pass for me.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:05 pm to ChemE in the OP
Good call chemE, I'll probably pass
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:06 pm to KingBarkus
quote:
Philly
I love them -3 at home against Dallas. I think they are going to throttle the Cowboys.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:17 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
If anything I'd play the under Thursday night, looking like a pass for me.
Agree. Denver is an under team this year.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:26 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
If anything I'd play the under Thursday night, looking like a pass for me.
agree with all of you on the under being the play
Denver public team is considered "high scoring" while we all know there are likely issues
People in general prefer betting the "over" so it's already shaded in that direction
Probably getting 3-4 free points on the under this game IMO FWIW
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:30 pm to SirWinston
Someone give me some non biased insight on NYG -2 over ATL. I don't see my birds winning that game, I would have guessed a 4 or 5 point spread
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:34 pm to tween the hedges
Yeah I can't see Atlanta winning that one either - Giants looked solid and Atlanta looked terrible the entire 2nd half.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:39 pm to tween the hedges
ATL-NYG is one of the few games (the others being HOU-CAR and MIA-JAX) I just can't come up with an opinion on. Better games out there imho. If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I'm worried about ATL's pass defense. Manning should have a good game, here. They'll be throwing a ton, I know that. Maybe the Over 51 is the only play here? 
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:50 pm to Hodson2Fuller
Over could be good. I got way too cocky and took the Falcons +140 last night...I probably should lay off this week. Hate betting against us but I really don't see us winning
Posted on 9/15/15 at 5:55 pm to tween the hedges
Atl coming off an emotional win on Monday night now having to travel on the road.
Only angle I like is that atl is under a new coach. Players tend to play over their heads when the team is winning.
Only angle I like is that atl is under a new coach. Players tend to play over their heads when the team is winning.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 5:57 pm to PeteRose
Philly exposed ATLs cover 3 in the 2nd half. Eli will probably do the same.
Posted on 9/15/15 at 7:34 pm to ChemE in the OP
Yeah, and it doesn't take much to exposed a defense that was last in the league last year. A change in coaching isn't going to change much. I'm just afraid that falcons may play with confidence.
Posted on 9/16/15 at 7:03 am to PeteRose
Bovada still has no lines for TB/NO or TEN/CLE 
This post was edited on 9/16/15 at 7:37 am
Posted on 9/16/15 at 7:35 am to SirWinston
In honor of Sir Winston, teaser #2...
Philadelphia Eagles Teased +13 Pts 7½
Kansas City Chiefs Teased +13 Pts 10
Pittsburgh Steelers Teased +13 Pts 7
St. Louis Rams Teased +13 Pts 9½
Can't lose, right?
Philadelphia Eagles Teased +13 Pts 7½
Kansas City Chiefs Teased +13 Pts 10
Pittsburgh Steelers Teased +13 Pts 7
St. Louis Rams Teased +13 Pts 9½
Can't lose, right?
Posted on 9/16/15 at 2:53 pm to Hodson2Fuller
Anyone think the Broncos cover the 3 points at KC tomorrow?
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