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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 8/27/14 at 8:32 am to aVatiger
Posted on 8/27/14 at 8:32 am to aVatiger
quote:
i know that if i would have played the first week of the season the past two years i would have been 5-12.. i gotta go back and check three years ago, but i believe that would bump me to 7-15
I don't know if you are more of a degenerate because you know what you would have gone on bets you didnt make, or you aren't a degenerate because you didnt make the bets.
2
Posted on 8/27/14 at 8:38 am to bamafan425
quote:
I don't know if you are more of a degenerate because you know what you would have gone on bets you didnt make, or you aren't a degenerate because you didnt make the bets.
I vote degenerate frick
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:05 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Who the frick are you to say something is a terrible bet? You don't think successful gamblers never tease games, parlay, or buy points? Straight betting isn't the only way to win.
You sound like a guy who has rebuy every year because you clearly don't know shite about the variety of ways to cash tickets.
Sure thing, guy. Good luck with those teasers.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:09 am to goldennugget
I made these plays last week:
Florida State -17.5 PLAY OF THE WEEK
Colorado State +2.5
Houston -12
Central Florida +1
Rice +23.5
Boise State +10
Mississippi State -31
Washington -15.5
South Carolina/Texas A&M Over 57.5
Ohio State/Navy Over 63
Wake Forest/UL-Monroe Under 46
And here are the current lines
Florida State -19
Colorado State +2.5
Houston -11.5
Central Florida -1.5
Rice +21
Boise State +10.5
Mississippi State -30.5
Washington -17
SCAR/A&M 60
OHST/NAVY 55
WAKE/ULM 45.5
Bold are games I have the current line beat
But that Ohio State/Navy total...
Florida State -17.5 PLAY OF THE WEEK
Colorado State +2.5
Houston -12
Central Florida +1
Rice +23.5
Boise State +10
Mississippi State -31
Washington -15.5
South Carolina/Texas A&M Over 57.5
Ohio State/Navy Over 63
Wake Forest/UL-Monroe Under 46
And here are the current lines
Florida State -19
Colorado State +2.5
Houston -11.5
Central Florida -1.5
Rice +21
Boise State +10.5
Mississippi State -30.5
Washington -17
SCAR/A&M 60
OHST/NAVY 55
WAKE/ULM 45.5
Bold are games I have the current line beat
But that Ohio State/Navy total...
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:16 am to kidbourbon
Just stahp 
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:22 am to goldennugget
I'm hoping the Baylor 1st H is under 21. I will be all over that. Would have to be my favorite play of the week if I could get it under 21
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:24 am to blades8088
quote:
I'm hoping the Baylor 1st H is under 21.
It will be.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:35 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
It will be.
Not a chance.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:37 am to PurpleAndGold86
I honestly think it will open right at 21, but will move to
24 very quickly
24 very quickly
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:41 am to blades8088
No way it opens at anything Under 21.5.
Personally I think it will be 24.5. Heck I can see 27.5
Personally I think it will be 24.5. Heck I can see 27.5
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:44 am to ChemE in the OP
Thanks for the links, ChemE.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:47 am to castorinho
I think 21 is about right for a 33 point spread. But like I said it will move to 24 minutes after opening. Guess we shall see 
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:27 am to blades8088
Anyone have any good twitter handles to follow for cfb betting?
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:41 am to BeYou
quote:
Anyone have any good twitter handles to follow for cfb betting?
jesus..
just wait *paging ChemE
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:46 am to castorinho
quote:
Heck I can see 27.5
The spread for the game is only 33. There is no chance it will be as high as 27.5 for the first half.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:47 am to blades8088
quote:
I think 21 is about right for a 33 point spread. But like I said it will move to 24 minutes after opening.
This is much more plausible for that game. I could see it opening at like 22 just so that it is above 21, but I wouldn't be surprised if it started at 21 and then moved way up from there.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:52 am to BeYou
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:52 am to bamafan425
quote:
I don't know if you are more of a degenerate because you know what you would have gone on bets you didnt make, or you aren't a degenerate because you didnt make the bets
i've kept copies of every single bracket i have ever filled out for march madness since i was in 9th grade.. my mom has them on file
which reminds me i need to get those things scanned into the system
Posted on 8/27/14 at 10:55 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
If I could open a sportsbook that could do 100% of my volume on NCAAF 3-team 10-pt teaser at -115 juice I would. I definitely agree with him that the logic of using this week one is off. If there are higher levels of uncertainty you just compound the uncertain outcome by needing three results.
Theoretically a combo 10pt teaser would be more effective once the models for setting the lines have 6-8 weeks of data.
In Week 1, I don't know enough about teams to simply just do a full list of straight wagers. I like watching teams before I back them. This is a learning week, so playing a few teasers is a good play for me, especially since I have a singular heavy lean on a certain game this week that I can use as a combo piece.
Anyone who is confident with a full card of straight wagers this week seems crazy to me, but to each his own.
I know you are biased against teasers (I've seen your other posts), so I'm not surprised you decided to throw your two cents in on this topic
This post was edited on 8/27/14 at 10:56 am
Posted on 8/27/14 at 11:08 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Takisha McGee
Thanks, had already got those and was looking for more.
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