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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 3 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:57 pm to dgtiger3
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:57 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
North Texas -3.5 - I think La Tech is coming off of one of the most impressive wins of last week, will be interesting to see how they can follow up that performance. I think North Texas has a huge advantage on the line of scrimmage, which is enough in itself for me to lay the 3.5 at home.
I'm on the other side tonight(also a little ML) and the over. Thursday home games scare the shite out of me, but I really like what I saw from Tech's QB last week. The new DC seems to have the bunch figured out going into the 3rd game. I'm betting on Tech putting up numbers that UNT cannot keep up with.
Also, BYU tonight. Leggggeauxxx
Hopefully, I can get ahead on the weekend. I feel shaky about alot of my action this weekend, almost wish I would have laid off. I jumped on some lines the day they were released and now I'm a little worried. Example: Jumped on USCe and just looking at pure numbers UGA should win that game by double digits.
2
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:00 pm to Signature
quote:
Idk if this was a knock against me or not, but I've never claimed to be an expert. Hell I generally put my picks on here so smarter people than me can scrutinize them.
Lol, no man I just responded to you because you were the person above me. I have zero desire to attack anyone on here for their picks, just give my opinion on various games and angles. I love the CFB bet thread, pretty good group of dudes.
quote:
Signature
Slow down bud, it's only Wednesday.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:09 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Slow down bud, it's only Wednesday.
0-100 (even a day early)
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:11 pm to Signature
quote:
BYU tonight. Leggggeauxxx
Somebodys ready to geaux
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:18 pm to goldennugget
quote:
. Baylor was terrible ATS on the road last year and I made money fading them when the public was all over them on the road.
yep 1-3 on the road ATS. I've said it before and I'll say it again, bet Baylor to cover at home (covered last 12 home games) and fade on the road (1-3 ATS in road games last season). The one road game we did cover was Kansas and we covered by maybe 1 point?
With that said, we haven't played this low level of a team (non P5 conference) since ULM in 2012. We didn't cover but that ULM team was still much better than this Buffalo team. So while history shows we won't cover, I won't be completely surprised if we did since that record reflects teams in P5 conferences.
A little surprised its gotten to +35 though.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:19 pm to blades8088
I'm excited for the Thursday night matchups, if only because half the board seems to be on one side or the other. Should make for an interesting thread to start the weekend
As for me, HOU +18.5 and LaTech +3.5 is where I'm postin' up.
As for me, HOU +18.5 and LaTech +3.5 is where I'm postin' up.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:23 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
and the assumption that we will play the starters longer and possibly open up the play book some to prepare for Miss st.
Kind of the opposite. It is the depth that LSU has that leads me to believe they will continue to score points throughout 4 quarters. Les has always left his starters in for a long time, that is something everyone on the Rant complains about all the time.
The difference is that when he does take the starters out, we still have guys like Brandon Harris, Malachi Dupre, Leonard Fournette, Darrell Williams and Jamal Adams taking snaps. We don't need to "open up the playbook". LSU is significantly more talented than ULM and the quality depth that will be getting reps is what will make it easy for LSU to run up the score. Also, we have pretty high potential to score a TD on special teams with White or Fournette and on defense with the nasty secondary we have.
Is it an easy automatic cover? No - but I like it a lot, and for pretty good reasons.
Everyone had the same line last week that we don't "run up the score" and look what happened.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:24 pm to DFWAggie09
I would wait on Houston. This thing could possibly get bet to 21
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:27 pm to blades8088
HOU has fallen to +17.5 at mine already today.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:27 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
The difference is that when he does take the starters out, we still have guys like Brandon Harris, Malachi Dupre, Leonard Fournette, Darrell Williams and Jamal Adams taking snaps
LSU always has extremely talent backups though. Just like last year Magee getting late snaps
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:28 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
LSU always has extremely talent backups though. Just like last year Magee getting late snaps
Yeah and Stephen Rivers.
There is a difference in the backups we have had in the past and the backups we have this year. Miles wants Harris to actually play this year and maybe in meaningful snaps. No one on the planet wanted Rivers to come in and actually throw the football in a meaningful spot.
We always have talented running backs. That's obvious. But Fournette will be getting plenty or reps in the second half, meaning what is probably our most talented back will still be getting offensive reps in the second half. We also have much more quality at WR depth this year than in the past.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:30 pm to DFWAggie09
Oh wow. It did just move like wildfire. There goes my idea
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:36 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I also think that its kind of a misconception that LSU doesn't beat teams by a lot of points because of close SEC games and bad records ATS in those games.
Let's look at non conference games against not the power 5 over the last few years:
2013: vs UAB 56-17 - 39 point MOV
2013: vs Kent State 45-13 - 32 point MOV
2013: vs Furman 48-16 - 32 point MOV
2012: vs North Texas - 41-14 - 27 point MOV
2012: vs Idaho - 63-14 - 49 point MOV
2012: vs Towson - 38-22 - 16 point MOV
2011 we blew out by Northwestern and Western Kentucky by 46 and 33.
It is pretty typical for LSU to beat non-conference teams by over 30 points.
Someone asked why would anyone play it. Just giving my reasons for playing it. Obviously some people like it.
Let's look at non conference games against not the power 5 over the last few years:
2013: vs UAB 56-17 - 39 point MOV
2013: vs Kent State 45-13 - 32 point MOV
2013: vs Furman 48-16 - 32 point MOV
2012: vs North Texas - 41-14 - 27 point MOV
2012: vs Idaho - 63-14 - 49 point MOV
2012: vs Towson - 38-22 - 16 point MOV
2011 we blew out by Northwestern and Western Kentucky by 46 and 33.
It is pretty typical for LSU to beat non-conference teams by over 30 points.
Someone asked why would anyone play it. Just giving my reasons for playing it. Obviously some people like it.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:38 pm to Billy Mays
I feel great taking Tenn.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:41 pm to castorinho
quote:
what? dude is like 87-5 at home
I remember them losing @ home to KST and ND in the same season, both games in Norman. 2 years ago maybe IDK.
Carry on tho
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:42 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Central Michigan +7
Favorite play of the week. Syracuse should not be laying road points to a decent team.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:54 pm to TigerTatorTots
Two bets again this week, easy treading... Final card:
Sep 13 CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[152] SOUTH CAROLINA +5½-105
158 / 150
Sep 13 CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[185] TENNESSEE U +21½-125 (B+½)
188 / 150
Sep 13 CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[152] SOUTH CAROLINA +5½-105
158 / 150
Sep 13 CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[185] TENNESSEE U +21½-125 (B+½)
188 / 150
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:58 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
I remember them losing @ home to KST and ND in the same season, both games in Norman. 2 years ago maybe IDK.
Carry on tho
That was 2012, you are correct.
He was 87-5 heading into this season.
LINK
Posted on 9/10/14 at 2:44 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
I need someone to tell me why these are BAD bets if you can
quote:
UGA -6 @ South Carolina (even at USC Georgia should dominate right?)
Road favorite
Posted on 9/10/14 at 2:47 pm to dcrews
Also, Dural is out for Saturday's game against ULM (car accident).
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