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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 4 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/19/12 at 11:44 am to AZTiger7072
Posted on 9/19/12 at 11:44 am to AZTiger7072
I like it ... A 7 point Teaser in that looks sexy too.
0
Posted on 9/19/12 at 11:49 am to bamafan425
Got them in a teaser:
Wash State -12.5
LSU -12.5
Wash State -12.5
LSU -12.5
Posted on 9/19/12 at 11:50 am to dcrews
god damn...i need a visa card. 
got 2 masters, 1 discover, and 1 amex.
got 2 masters, 1 discover, and 1 amex.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 11:59 am to The Egg
I went to Wal Mart and bought a pre paid Visa ... same as you ... it's worked so far.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:01 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Not to throw off the college football thread, but ...
The Reds/Cubs total is O/U14 ...
That's an absurd total for a baseball game.
The Reds/Cubs total is O/U14 ...
That's an absurd total for a baseball game.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:09 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
The Reds/Cubs total is O/U14
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:22 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
The Reds called to ask if I could pitch tonight but I'm busy.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:23 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
SMS anf PhillyGFis on the Angels ML tonight
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:25 pm to blades8088
quote:
SMS
:nope:
Bet it hard, bc I'm staying away. It will surely hit.
This post was edited on 9/19/12 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:28 pm to dcrews
Thanks. I already took it. Just stay away from it
Posted on 9/19/12 at 12:37 pm to blades8088
I took a little -1.5 (+170) Angels as well.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 1:15 pm to TigerTatorTots
I ran my numbers and my spreadsheet spit out 20 plays this week.
I'll post them in a few.
I'll post them in a few.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 1:25 pm to TigerTatorTots
YTD record: 15-6 (+14 units)
Bets placed for week 4 (All 2 units)
Buffalo: -3.5
Penn st: -7
Troy: pick em
LSU: -18.5
Miami Ohio: -26.5 (fading Massachusetts with you guys!)
Bets placed for week 4 (All 2 units)
Buffalo: -3.5
Penn st: -7
Troy: pick em
LSU: -18.5
Miami Ohio: -26.5 (fading Massachusetts with you guys!)
Posted on 9/19/12 at 1:34 pm to LSUAlum2001
Speaking of spreadsheets. What types of criterion do you use to determine your own spreads, totals, etc?
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:04 pm to dcrews
Have the RAS totals been released this week? IF so, please enlighten me!
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:12 pm to WRedmondsStang
UNLV+12.5
Western KY-2.5
Kent St/Buffalo UNDER 53
Western KY-2.5
Kent St/Buffalo UNDER 53
This post was edited on 9/19/12 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:25 pm to blades8088
I don't bet online anymore, but will be in Vegas this weekend and need some picks. I agree that UF will beat UK by 35+, so I like that one. Not touching LSU if the lines is more than 21 by the time I get there, which I'm sure it will be.
I found this writeup from a guy on Covers who seems to be pretty successful and gives (very) long writeups. He's got me convinced.
I found this writeup from a guy on Covers who seems to be pretty successful and gives (very) long writeups. He's got me convinced.
quote:
Tulsa -5.5
I’m a big believer in routine, and Fresno State’s start to the year has been anything but. Open up with a nice win over Weber State (who is currently 0-3), then became a victim to Oregon who had a 35-6 halftime lead and coasted to a victory only scoring 7 points in the 2H (which is something Oregon is apparently pretty good at this year as their 1H point total is 120 and their 2H point total is 42). In addition, while Oregon doesn’t run the pistol, it has similarities to a few teams from the conference as Fresno has played similar offenses in Nevada and Utah State (somewhat similar I say, in the fact that defending them are similar). After the “what looks to be” decent loss to Oregon, Fresno State came home and pretty much did whatever they wanted to to a Colorado team who is 0-3 and can’t find a decent QB to take the field (yes, that same Colorado team who lost to Sacramento State and Colorado State as favorites). Six hundred and sixty five yards of offense and eight touchdowns. That doesn’t happen too often, and I don’t expect them to put up that kind of performance again. In fact, against a team like Colorado, the high point total was a bit misleading. They sucked on third down (4/11), which shows me when the pressure is on, things might not necessarily go the way they should. My point is, Fresno’s been about up and down as you can get here in the first few weeks of the season and I’m not really all that impressed. Home/Away/Home, now they go away again, but a much farther road trip. Here’s Fresno State travelling East and two time zones out of conference in recent history:
2011: Loss (42-29)
2010: Loss (55-38)
2009: Loss (34-31)
2009: Loss (28-20)
There last win coming East came at the end of the 2009 season in the shootout with Illinois where they had a million days to prepare in a worthless game to end the season. Not too impressive. Small sample size, and not really all that important in the grand scheme of things, but it’s pretty tough for teams to travel this early in the season and prepare against teams they aren’t all that familiar with (for reference, check out how the Big 10 fared a few weeks back). The teams are out of the routine, and is generally out of the basic season routine. As you can see, in the last few years, they’ve only come this way five times. Also important to note, this will be the first time coming this way with a first year coach in DeRuyter. Again, not the basis for the play, just an angle that should be pointed out with a team that just put up astronomical numbers, garnered much attention and awards, and a team whose players have said on multiple occasions that was the “best game of their life.”
Something like that should wake Tulsa up, who has been beating on nobodies at home for the past few weeks after opening up the regular season with a loss at Iowa State (who is 3-0, and also has a win at Iowa). Tulsa is in that routine that I referenced earlier as they will be taking part in their third straight game at home. Again, this is probably one of those shoot it out type of games (or so I thought with Rice and Kansas), but I think this game comes down to which defense I trust a bit more. With Tulsa, I feel like they have an above average secondary with McCoil out there, and not really sure if I can trust Fresno State in that department. They gave up at least 35 points in eight games last year, and here’s their point totals they’ve given up on the road the past couple years regardless of where it’s played...42, 35, 21, 48, 45, 24, 42, 36, 51, 34, 18, 55, 24, 52, 52, 21.
And on, and on, and on. I can’t trust this defense, and I’m not sure I’ve been given a clear indication of whether or not this defense has gotten better at all this year, but my guess is that it hasn’t. This is where I trust Tulsa to get stops; not on every possession, but more often than Fresno does. The pressure they have put on teams in the past up front should make the difference here against a team emploring an offensive scheme basically in real game #2. In addition, some other tidbits and notes on the game itself. A couple years back Tim DeRuyter interviewed for the head coaching job at Tulsa. I would have to believe that what DeRuyter wants to do on offense and defense, and a full fledged scheme would have been discussed at some point in the interview process. I’m not saying that’s pivotal to what happens on the field Saturday, but I’m just saying that there is a tiny chance the staff at Tulsa knows a bit more about what Fresno State wants to do than they’ll come forth with, something that can be tied to film and/or scouting reports. DeRuyter withdrew after the interview before Tulsa could offer him the job. Why did he withdraw? He wanted to be a head coach out West. Now he comes East. Coincidence? I’m just saying. In the end, I think Tulsa wins this one. Coming East off of a huge record-breaking performance against a poor team with a new offensive scheme and new defensive scheme with a first year coach is just too much to ask. Will Tulsa get up for the game? I think they do, it’s probably the toughest they have left on the schedule considering how bad the conference is, and the mess going on at Arkansas. Game plan should be simple, slow down Rouse, again, not all the time, just try to contain him (although Tulsa is usually damn good in the tackle for loss category, so containing may turn into multiple stops here). Speaking of, these stats don’t really mean much, however, Tulsa ranks 2nd in the nation with sacks (17), and 1st in the nation in tackles for a loss (32). When you can get a few stops on Rouse, then Tulsa can get into the bread and butter of the defensive scheme which is forcing teams to throw, utilizing the pressure up front getting pressure on the QB, and utilizing the potential All-American safety in 6’4” McCoil (and at the same time, the same defense that took the field last year takes the field this year under the same routine playing its third straight game at home against a team who just put up 69 points and a team travelling two time zones). I think Tulsa’s ready for this one, she’s a statement game, and I think they win rather convincingly given the intangibles.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:26 pm to blades8088
thanks Blade, I saw the UNLV & WK picks earlier this week, but not the under for tonight. Where do you find these, if you dont mind me asking.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:32 pm to WRedmondsStang
Im looking to slam hard on Ole Miss. Starting QB and RB are both out for Tulane.
Posted on 9/19/12 at 2:35 pm to arowana
From the info I have gathered, Buffalo -3 is the play tonight.
Buffalo has a RB who had over 100 yards @ Georgia, and their QB is pretty solid too.
After reading up, I'm going to add Buffalo -3(buying a half a point) for 2*
Dcrews, stay the frick away.
Here is a good link for info on who is taking who
Buffalo has a RB who had over 100 yards @ Georgia, and their QB is pretty solid too.
After reading up, I'm going to add Buffalo -3(buying a half a point) for 2*
Dcrews, stay the frick away.
Here is a good link for info on who is taking who
This post was edited on 9/19/12 at 2:49 pm
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