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re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:13 pm to dgtiger3
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:13 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
rocket what are your thoughts on the games tonight?
I've been on Arizona St. since the line came out and thought I would be able to grab it for 10 by today but it looks like that isn't the case at all.
I think Arizona St. is definitely being underestimated and if they win the turnover battle they will win this game outright.
I have it 26-24 Sun Devils.
My regression said 38-34 Ducks.
Im not playing the game though. Too many factors. Fiist true road game for the Ducks QB. Is ASU defense *that* good? And then with RLM and Thursday night game dynamics...; just gonna stay away.
2
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:16 pm to Boomdat
quote:
ASU loss to Mizzou is looking real bad too.
I guess the public perception of the Mizzou loss is bad, but when you actually analyze it, that wasn't really the case. First road game for their QB in a SEC Stadium, they lost 24-20, lost the turnover battle 4-1 (Less than 20% of teams that lose by 3 or more in the turnover battle even cover the spread). Their last two drives of the game they didnt score with a 2nd and goal on the 1 yard line and they threw a pick at the Mizzou 20.
Maybe some other guys could help me shine some light on the turnover battle but by everything I have read most handicappers account for every turnover to be a 6 or 7 point swing.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:23 pm to dgtiger3
So is anyone touching UH/SMU? I really like UH
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:25 pm to rocket31
quote:
My regression said 38-34 Ducks.
I don't see the Ducks D giving up 30+ points but that's me.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:28 pm to LSUintheNW
Looks like you need to play the under then.
Vegas projects the game ~38-31 for total of 69.
Vegas projects the game ~38-31 for total of 69.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:35 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
I am thinking hard about pulling the trigger on ASU. Or maybe an ASU 1st half play. Remember how shitty Wazoo even kept it close in the 1st half?
1st half play would be smart IMO. This is another new staff that Chip has never played before. Just like WSU he's not sure how they'll play his offense and he will bide his time seeing what they'll do. Same with Oregons D. At halftime, if needed, they will make any adjustments needed and put the game away.
Something tells me this game is going under (Oregons D bending not breaking) but I wouldn't touch it. Both teams play hurry up so there'll be a lot of plays.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:35 pm to rocket31
I think the total is fair. My projection is 43-28 but situational factors could make it a bit closer...
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:37 pm to dcrews
Let me preface this by saying that I do believe that there is such a thing as a soft line. In other words, when I see a line that looks a little off or just too good to be true, I don't automatically jump to the conclusion that something is "up" and that Vegas knows something I don't know.* To the contrary, I usually toss down big on it, and have had success in those instances.
All that being said, what the funk is up with this San Jose St. line? It started at -14 and is now down to -10.5 I'm really close to tossing down my life savings on this game, but I just want to make doubly sure I'm not missing something.
For those unfamiliar with the WAC, here is the executive summary: a power tiered-out power ranking:
1. La Tech
---- half mile dropoff ------
2. Utah State
---- full mile dropoff ------
3. San Jose State
----- 26.2 mile dropoff ------
4. Idaho
4. Texas State
4. UTSA
---- 1 mile dropoff ----
7. New Mexico State
The bottom four are virtually indistinguishable. I'd probably rate Texas State as the best of the bunch followed by Idaho followed by UTSA followed by atrocious atrocious New Mexico State. Your mileage may vary on the bottom four.
San Jose State lost to Stanford on the road 17-20. They beat a good SDSU team on the road 38-34. They lost to a good Utah State team 27-49 at home. But, again, Utah State is pretty good. I've seen them play twice now and they even passed the eyeball test.
UTSA beat South Alabama by two (at south alabama). Played three FCS teams, then beat atrocious atrocious New Mexico State on the road before losing to dogtrash Rice on the road. Yes, the same Rice that lost to dogtrash Memphis.
I handicapped this game as San Jose State-21.5**, and the more I look at it the more convinced I am that I set it in the right spot.
So, in view of all of the above, should I toss down my life savings on the Spartans, or am I missing something?
__________________________________
*I do think that in NFL betting, a line that appears to be too good to be true probably is too good to be true. But NFL betting and CFB betting are two different animals. NFL lines are definitely tighter.
**I go through and set lines for the games before looking at the actual lines. This way I avoid any anchoring bias. LINK
All that being said, what the funk is up with this San Jose St. line? It started at -14 and is now down to -10.5 I'm really close to tossing down my life savings on this game, but I just want to make doubly sure I'm not missing something.
For those unfamiliar with the WAC, here is the executive summary: a power tiered-out power ranking:
1. La Tech
---- half mile dropoff ------
2. Utah State
---- full mile dropoff ------
3. San Jose State
----- 26.2 mile dropoff ------
4. Idaho
4. Texas State
4. UTSA
---- 1 mile dropoff ----
7. New Mexico State
The bottom four are virtually indistinguishable. I'd probably rate Texas State as the best of the bunch followed by Idaho followed by UTSA followed by atrocious atrocious New Mexico State. Your mileage may vary on the bottom four.
San Jose State lost to Stanford on the road 17-20. They beat a good SDSU team on the road 38-34. They lost to a good Utah State team 27-49 at home. But, again, Utah State is pretty good. I've seen them play twice now and they even passed the eyeball test.
UTSA beat South Alabama by two (at south alabama). Played three FCS teams, then beat atrocious atrocious New Mexico State on the road before losing to dogtrash Rice on the road. Yes, the same Rice that lost to dogtrash Memphis.
I handicapped this game as San Jose State-21.5**, and the more I look at it the more convinced I am that I set it in the right spot.
So, in view of all of the above, should I toss down my life savings on the Spartans, or am I missing something?
__________________________________
*I do think that in NFL betting, a line that appears to be too good to be true probably is too good to be true. But NFL betting and CFB betting are two different animals. NFL lines are definitely tighter.
**I go through and set lines for the games before looking at the actual lines. This way I avoid any anchoring bias. LINK
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:37 pm to ChemE in the OP
So Stanford will be playing at 2:00 pm CT 12:00PT? Do they ever play that early? Just want to see if this is right.
This post was edited on 10/18/12 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:39 pm to rocket31
I like the under and have been leaning that way all week but if it were me i wouldnt touch the O/U. I don't gamble anymore, just talking and giving info to those who do.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:42 pm to LSUintheNW
its just really hard to take the under in an Oregon game.
you just kick yourself constantly when they hit the over in the 3rdQ
you just kick yourself constantly when they hit the over in the 3rdQ
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:43 pm to au21tigers
If it was 10 am CT that would be 8 am PT.
The PAC used to play a lot of 12 pm games, still do just not as much. If that's what time it is don't worry about it.
The PAC used to play a lot of 12 pm games, still do just not as much. If that's what time it is don't worry about it.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:44 pm to LSUintheNW
Sorry thats what i meant 12:00 PT 2:00 CT. I just can't recall them playing that early.
12:00 PT 2:00 CT. I just can't recall them playing that early.This post was edited on 10/18/12 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:45 pm to LSUintheNW
Do ya'll like VA Tech against Clemson? I think the Hokies have finally found their running game with freshman JC Coleman. Thoughts?
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:48 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
its just really hard to take the under in an Oregon game. you just kick yourself constantly when they hit the over in the 3rdQ
Oh I know, believe they are 21-7 O/U and ASU is 15-5. It isn't the typical play. I just have this feeling the D really brings it tonight. I have a feeling they feel slighted and are gonna bring it. However if they do and Oregon is up big the 3/4 stringers could frick it up and it goes over. If it were me I wouldn't touch it. Between both teams odds say go over.
Posted on 10/18/12 at 12:57 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
I think Arizona St. is definitely being underestimated
Not by Oregon, I can guarantee you that.
quote:
I have it 26-24 Sun Devils.
, sorry but I can't help but laugh. Who has ASU played that tells you this? They haven't faced a good O or D yet and they get both tonight. 
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:12 pm to shuke33
quote:
Do ya'll like VA Tech against Clemson? I think the Hokies have finally found their running game with freshman JC Coleman. Thoughts?
not no
but hell no
clemson covers
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:12 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
My projection is 43-28
that is spot on
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:13 pm to aVatiger
quote:
clemson covers
easily IMO
Posted on 10/18/12 at 1:21 pm to wish i was tebow
Anyone on LSU to dominate A+M.
Bye week so no look ahead for the Bengals
Old Rivalry Renewed
And a lot more tape on Johnny Fantastic for Chavis
-3 seems low
Bye week so no look ahead for the Bengals
Old Rivalry Renewed
And a lot more tape on Johnny Fantastic for Chavis
-3 seems low
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