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re: Official Week 8 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/18/15 at 9:55 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 10/18/15 at 9:55 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
fake field goal
not an anomaly for LSU
quote:
few inches of sideline on a fumble recovery
Certainly not comparable to a muffed punt
quote:
dropped TD in the end zone
Ball was knocked loose by a defender. Also not an anomaly.
But I digress. The line has moved in favor of WKU, so I'm staying away unless it drops again.
0
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:02 am to TheSexecutioner
Mizzou-2.5 gives me a massive boner.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:23 am to dcrews
Utah +3 almost deserves its own thread. I get that people aren't sold on them being a great team, but you could still get a ton of Utah money even if the line was -3.
Obviously there's no such thing as a lock but teasing them up to 10 or more looks like a great play.
Obviously there's no such thing as a lock but teasing them up to 10 or more looks like a great play.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 8:51 am to bayoucracka
I also see WKU keeping it very close and scaring LSU. Any team that can give their qb a decent amount of time or has designed quick routes can pretty much throw at will against LSU right now.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 9:01 am to jp90
Love UM getting +7 at home vs. Clemson. Huge game for Golden. Could save his job. Looks like the public nailed Clemson and pushed the line to 7
Posted on 10/19/15 at 9:02 am to bayoucracka
quote:
Utah +3 almost deserves its own thread.
I'm not touching that game for now. 29% on USC and the line has moved half a point to USC.
Also added UTEP +6. Public hammered FAU, line hasn't moved at all
This post was edited on 10/19/15 at 9:43 am
Posted on 10/19/15 at 10:33 am to TheOcean
I had a glitch in my sheets(had to code new functions for the switch) and it actually has WKU covering 76.5% of the time now, and that was against a 14.5 spread. Would be slighty higher cover % on a 16.5 spread
Games I locked in last night. All of these are model plays.
Western Kentucky +14.5 & +16.5
Appalachian State -5
East Carolina -2.5
Utah State -5
Wake Forest +10
Vandy +2.5
Navy -22
Boise State -31
Illinois +7
Houston -20.5
Florida International -15
Arkansas -5
Washington State +7.5
Games I locked in last night. All of these are model plays.
Western Kentucky +14.5 & +16.5
Appalachian State -5
East Carolina -2.5
Utah State -5
Wake Forest +10
Vandy +2.5
Navy -22
Boise State -31
Illinois +7
Houston -20.5
Florida International -15
Arkansas -5
Washington State +7.5
Posted on 10/19/15 at 10:38 am to jp90
Not saying LSU wil cover at all. More likely that they don't with a big number against a good senior QB and coming off a huge emotional win...but what the hell are you talking about? Who has thrown at will against LSU this season?
Posted on 10/19/15 at 10:42 am to accnodefense
quote:
My most accurate prediction method says LSU wins by 1 my
Yeah, but you also thought UH was a huge "trap".
(WKU wins 28.9% of the time)
WKU has a good QB and won't be a pushover but LMAO at your model having them beating LSU in tiger stadium at night almost 30% of the time.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 10:53 am to FulshearTiger
quote:
Yeah, but you also thought UH was a huge "trap".
(WKU wins 28.9% of the time) WKU has a good QB and won't be a pushover but LMAO at your model having them beating LSU in tiger stadium at night almost 30% of the time.
I ignored my model on the Houston game. All 5 of my prediction methods had Houston covering. You can see that here: LINK
In my model LSU is ranked #15 and Western Kentucky is #20. Not a lot of difference between the two. Western Kentucky has the #5 offense and #67 defense, and LSU's offense is #12 and defense is ranked #52.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:00 am to accnodefense
I'm going off of what you posted. You said that multiple times that UH was a "trap" and then went on to tout how you have excelled at calling traps all year.
If your model has LSU ranked at 52 in defense then your model isn't very smart, but we both know predicting WKU to come in to Tiger Stadium at night and win 3 out of 10 times is absolutely ridiculous. And this is coming from someone who thinks that WKU has a good chance of covering. But go for it, rail the WKU moneyline because of you think they will win outright 30% of the time then you will get incredible value on the ML.
If your model has LSU ranked at 52 in defense then your model isn't very smart, but we both know predicting WKU to come in to Tiger Stadium at night and win 3 out of 10 times is absolutely ridiculous. And this is coming from someone who thinks that WKU has a good chance of covering. But go for it, rail the WKU moneyline because of you think they will win outright 30% of the time then you will get incredible value on the ML.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:02 am to accnodefense
quote:
Games I locked in last night. All of these are model plays.
Western Kentucky +14.5 & +16.5
Appalachian State -5
East Carolina -2.5
Utah State -5
Wake Forest +10
Vandy +2.5
Navy -22
Boise State -31
Illinois +7
Houston -20.5
Florida International -15
Arkansas -5
Washington State +7.5
I will likely be on Vandy as well, but why would you not wait on 3? Pub will be Zou heavy.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:12 am to FulshearTiger
quote:
If your model has LSU ranked at 52 in defense then your model isn't very smart
Where is your model then?
Hare the ranks of the teams LSU has played this year according to my model:
#71 Auburn (#48 ranked offense)
#34 Mississippi State (#44 ranked offense)
#81 Syracuse (#56 ranked offense)
#122 Eastern Michigan (#76 ranked offense)
#79 South Carolina (#66 ranked offense)
#7 Florida (#53 ranked offense)
So Florida is the only Top 30 team LSU has played according to my model, and LSU hasn't faced a Top 40 offense yet, but have still given up 124 points on 65 non-junk drives for an average of 1.9 points per drive. The national average points per drive is 2.01, so LSU is slightly better than average, so the #52 ranking makes total sense considering they haven't faced a Top 40 offense yet and are still allowing 20+ points to these non-Top 40 offenses.
Here are LSU's adjusted defensive drive efficiency numbers by game:
20150912 -0.69
20150919 +0.11
20150926 -0.51
20151003 -0.11
20151010 +0.44
20151017 -0.07
Their defensive performances against Auburn and South Carolina are hurting them. And the performances vs. Eastern Michigan and Florida were barely above average
This post was edited on 10/19/15 at 11:13 am
Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:16 am to maclauer
quote:
I will likely be on Vandy as well, but why would you not wait on 3? Pub will be Zou heavy.
My model loved Vandy in this game and we may see the lowest posted total in a decade. Here is how my model predicted it:
Vanderbilt 3, Missouri 0
Vanderbilt 15, Missouri 12
Vanderbilt 9, Missouri 6
Regardless if my really model likes a team I play it, regardless of number.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:25 am to accnodefense
quote:
Regardless if my really model likes a team I play it, regardless of number.
Right, but you should still want the best number. Especially considering that 3 is the most key number and +2.5 to -2.5 is very little difference. So you are a half point away on the upside to a key # and have 5.5 to the downside.. Just sayin. I like you and your model but you seem to get quite a few bad numbers each week, and this one will likely hit 3 at some point.
If you have the SportsInsights app you can set line notifications to try and get key numbers/hooks.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:08 pm to maclauer
quote:
Right, but you should still want the best number. Especially considering that 3 is the most key number and +2.5 to -2.5 is very little difference. So you are a half point away on the upside to a key # and have 5.5 to the downside.. Just sayin. I like you and your model but you seem to get quite a few bad numbers each week, and this one will likely hit 3 at some point.
You are completely correct, I guess its just paranoia. In Week 4 I think, I tried to hold off on placing bets waiting for numbers and the lines moved away from what I was looking for and I was faced with even worse numbers.
I just assume that my model is right and that the line will only get worse from there so I jump on it. For the most part, the earlier I have placed a bet the better number I have gotten.
I'd say this year for every line had if I waited on I would have gotten a better number, 2 lines have moved away from my model and I missed the boat. One week I got hurt playing Clemson early when I played them at -2.5 and they moved to PK(and I lost the bet), but the same week I beat a bunch of closers by 3+ points by placing my bets early so I came out ahead.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:33 pm to accnodefense
Guys, I was wondering if any of you could give me some guidance.
I am going to vegas this weekend for the first time, and was wanting to know what is the best sportsbook for casual betting and watching the games?
any info, recommendations, or tips are welcome!
I am going to vegas this weekend for the first time, and was wanting to know what is the best sportsbook for casual betting and watching the games?
any info, recommendations, or tips are welcome!
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:37 pm to accnodefense
I like LSU as well. They will be focused on this game. No trap scenario with the bye.
We will see. Might ride the Bama Cover Pain Train vs Butch.
They will be focused as well
We will see. Might ride the Bama Cover Pain Train vs Butch.
They will be focused as well
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:41 pm to rcl4
Bellagio, Wynn, Palazzo, Cosmo and Aria are all great to wager and watch games
Wynn Bellagio are my personal favorites.
Palazzo if u can get a spot outside on a cool fall day in Vegas is great
Wynn Bellagio are my personal favorites.
Palazzo if u can get a spot outside on a cool fall day in Vegas is great
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:42 pm to rcl4
quote:
I am going to vegas this weekend for the first time, and was wanting to know what is the best sportsbook for casual betting and watching the games?
I go 3 times a year.
Whatever you do, do not go to the Caesers/Bellagio books. Everyone here pimps those places but they suck, are too crowded, have bad lines, and you have to pay to sit. If you are ok paying to sit, that's fine, but I'd rather have more money for other things.
Avoid the Venetian/Palazzo books. It's a restaurant, not a sportsbook.
College Football Saturdays and NFL Sundays are tough. A lot of books are small, and the seats are reserved for their larger players(aka pay to sit). This will rule out the Hard Rock, Palms, and M, although those 3 books are my favorite for non-weekend action.
Really there are 3 places I stick to for CFB Saturdays. Mandalay Bay's book, MGM Grand's book, and Las Vegas Hilton(now known as Westgate)'s Superbook.
Mandalay Bay is good because its huge, and has plenty of places to sit(if you get there before 9). It's also the most well ventilated casino in my opinion, not a hazy smokefest.
MGM Grand is OK, its shaped like a horseshoe. Get there before 9 and grab a seat and you are set. It's big enough, and plenty of screens.
LVH Superbook is the largest book in Las Vegas. Lots of seating, its huge. Lots of betting options and good lines. The downside is that its degen central and the location isn't the best. It attracts a lot of degens, undesirables, and people making 12 team underdog parlays with their unemployment/welfare checks. The cocktail waitresses are also ugly. But there are free drinks, and if you don't mind the riff raff, its a great spot because there is plenty of seating.
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