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Message
Sometimes you have to look beyond analytics
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:44 pm
Analytics has changed coach decision making. But I see coaches misapply the concept and abuse it.
A few weeks ago, bears were playing the browns. Early 3rd qtr, bears were up 14-0 with the ball near midfield. It was 4th and 4 and they decided to go for it. I couldn’t believe it. Cleveland showed no sign of life till that point. I know analysis say to go for it since it’s the higher percentage play. Let’s assume you convert 4th and 4 at 54%. If the bears punt and pin browns deep, the chance of the browns failing to score is much greater than 54%, making it the higher percentage play. That’s why sometimes you have to look beyond analytics.
This game vs packers. They went for it 4th and 4 at their own 32. I’m all for aggressive play calling. It’s one thing to go 4th and 1 or 2 at the goal line. It’s another thing trying to get 4 yds at your own 32. If you convert 4th and goal, you’re getting points. If you miss, you still have your opponent backed up.
If you convert at your own 32, you still got a long way to go to get points. If you miss, the other team is in scoring territory. If you flip a coin to get a TD, it’s 50/50. But if need to flip a coin and then flip again later in the drive, the odds are way against you.
Lastly, football is an emotional game. If you go for it at your own 32 and not make it, it’s demoralizing for the team.
A few weeks ago, bears were playing the browns. Early 3rd qtr, bears were up 14-0 with the ball near midfield. It was 4th and 4 and they decided to go for it. I couldn’t believe it. Cleveland showed no sign of life till that point. I know analysis say to go for it since it’s the higher percentage play. Let’s assume you convert 4th and 4 at 54%. If the bears punt and pin browns deep, the chance of the browns failing to score is much greater than 54%, making it the higher percentage play. That’s why sometimes you have to look beyond analytics.
This game vs packers. They went for it 4th and 4 at their own 32. I’m all for aggressive play calling. It’s one thing to go 4th and 1 or 2 at the goal line. It’s another thing trying to get 4 yds at your own 32. If you convert 4th and goal, you’re getting points. If you miss, you still have your opponent backed up.
If you convert at your own 32, you still got a long way to go to get points. If you miss, the other team is in scoring territory. If you flip a coin to get a TD, it’s 50/50. But if need to flip a coin and then flip again later in the drive, the odds are way against you.
Lastly, football is an emotional game. If you go for it at your own 32 and not make it, it’s demoralizing for the team.
7
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:47 pm to PeteRose
Sir, you didn’t have to type all that out, to confirm the Bears coach is a dumbass.
Anytime on MSB we have different opinions- I can truly say MSB agree 100% - he fuvked up
Anytime on MSB we have different opinions- I can truly say MSB agree 100% - he fuvked up
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:49 pm to PeteRose
This is what happens when you let nerds participate in sports.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:52 pm to PeteRose
The analytics said to punt. He’s not going by analytics, Ben Johnson is using his judgment that his defense blows and they can’t punt it back.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 8:53 pm to TheWalrus
Their offense blows tonight as well.
They had to go for it.
They had to go for it.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:02 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Their offense blows tonight as well.
That makes no sense? If your offense blows why do you put more pressure on them to convert a low % play?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:05 pm to UnoMe
quote:
That makes no sense? If your offense blows why do you put more pressure on them to convert a low % play?
Because they have to maximize their possessions.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:13 pm to KosmoCramer
You sound like you agree with him?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:36 pm to PeteRose
I ain't reading all that shite
Coaches are stupid, and Dan Campbell is at the top of the list
Coaches are stupid, and Dan Campbell is at the top of the list
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:06 pm to PeteRose
Field position means nothing if your defense sucks
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:24 pm to PeteRose
quote:That’s already baked into the decision is it not?
If the bears punt and pin browns deep, the chance of the browns failing to score is much greater than 54%, making it the higher percentage play. That’s why sometimes you have to look beyond analytics.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:10 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Let’s assume you convert 4th and 4 at 54%. If the bears punt and pin browns deep, the chance of the browns failing to score is much greater than 54%, making it the higher percentage play. That’s why sometimes you have to look beyond analytics.
You not describing the analytical formula that applies to this situation… the chance the Browns have to score is factored in with the chance of the Bears picking up the first…the conversion rate for 4th & 4 way less than 54%
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