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re: WSOP 2024 Main Event
Posted on 7/15/24 at 1:13 pm to Lolathon234
Posted on 7/15/24 at 1:13 pm to Lolathon234
And raising gets hands like AQs+, AKo, JJ+ to put more money in the pot or potentially rocket it off.
Edit: Doug Polk put out a video on the hand where he ran through a solver. If you notice AA and KK aren’t in Krissy’s range because they are pure 3b. The hand she chose is a small EV loser, so not close to a punt. The solver prefers having like Qx or 10x with the flush draw.
What do you think is Krissy’s optimal play on the turn?
Edit: Doug Polk put out a video on the hand where he ran through a solver. If you notice AA and KK aren’t in Krissy’s range because they are pure 3b. The hand she chose is a small EV loser, so not close to a punt. The solver prefers having like Qx or 10x with the flush draw.
What do you think is Krissy’s optimal play on the turn?
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 3:23 pm
2
Posted on 7/15/24 at 4:11 pm to lance814
Probably check/fold. Check call and shoving a heart on the river, check calling if a Q/T hits and check/folding a blank is the 2nd best play
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 7/15/24 at 4:25 pm to Lolathon234
Her hand is mostly a call in the turn. Interesting, because I thought call was the worst option.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 4:29 pm to lance814
I thought the play in a vacuum was fine if not +EV, but that close to the final table against an opponent that covers you I'd rather fold and live to see the next hand.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 4:43 pm to jcole4lsu
I think it’s a horrible punt by her.
The play in general if it was early in a tournament or a cash game isn’t bad.
But the spot she chose to do that was HORRENDOUS.
You are 5th or 6th in chips out of 13 if you fold.
Making the final table is huge by itself in a tournament with that many people it will be hard for her to ever have that opportunity again in the WSOP Main event.
She cost herself a lot of money in potential endorsements deals by not making the final table. She could have easily been the top woman face of poker. All the other known women from the poker boom are aging - Jennifer Harman, Jennifer Tilly, Annie Duke.
She had the opportunity to be the top woman poker player by just making the final table.
Then talk about just the financial gain of making the final table in prize amounts she jumps from $450,000 to $1 million, minimum.
I think she made the play out of tilt and desperation to get her stack back to where it was earlier in the day.
It’s just inexcusable for me to risk your chips on that bluff when Serock had so much invested already. He isn’t betting that much on the turn with a 1 pair hand. He is more likely weighted towards big value or a semi bluff, and if he had a semi bluff she should have just called. So it’s terrible for so many reasons in my eyes.
The play in general if it was early in a tournament or a cash game isn’t bad.
But the spot she chose to do that was HORRENDOUS.
You are 5th or 6th in chips out of 13 if you fold.
Making the final table is huge by itself in a tournament with that many people it will be hard for her to ever have that opportunity again in the WSOP Main event.
She cost herself a lot of money in potential endorsements deals by not making the final table. She could have easily been the top woman face of poker. All the other known women from the poker boom are aging - Jennifer Harman, Jennifer Tilly, Annie Duke.
She had the opportunity to be the top woman poker player by just making the final table.
Then talk about just the financial gain of making the final table in prize amounts she jumps from $450,000 to $1 million, minimum.
I think she made the play out of tilt and desperation to get her stack back to where it was earlier in the day.
It’s just inexcusable for me to risk your chips on that bluff when Serock had so much invested already. He isn’t betting that much on the turn with a 1 pair hand. He is more likely weighted towards big value or a semi bluff, and if he had a semi bluff she should have just called. So it’s terrible for so many reasons in my eyes.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 5:17 pm to WhoDat9090
I agree with most aside from the last 2 paragraphs. Krissy plays high rollers and is very studied. I seriously doubt she was “desperate to get back to where she was earlier in the day.” She took a spot where she thought she had good blockers to nutted hands.
If this was against a random, this bluff would be suicidal, but Serock is definitely capable. I think some one pair Ax hands continue on the turn for a large size (he might only play one size) as you want to charge the draws on the turn and potentially check back river if unimproved. The “semi bluffs” check back turn to realize their equity.
Poker is hard. Even the best in the world make mistake.
If this was against a random, this bluff would be suicidal, but Serock is definitely capable. I think some one pair Ax hands continue on the turn for a large size (he might only play one size) as you want to charge the draws on the turn and potentially check back river if unimproved. The “semi bluffs” check back turn to realize their equity.
Poker is hard. Even the best in the world make mistake.
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 7/15/24 at 5:55 pm to lance814
quote:
Poker is hard. Even the best in the world make mistake.
Especially when, unlike us home viewers who know what the other players are holding, they have no clue what opponents are holding and betting on.
Like anyone who's watched a lot of TV Texas Hold-em, lots of bluffs push out much stronger hands, especially when it has them committing most, if not all of their remaining chips.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 8:45 pm to gumbo2176
When do they play the final table?
Posted on 7/16/24 at 8:30 am to DWaginHTown
Today. And after thinking about it a bit more, the primary issue with her play is their stacks. If she had him covered, I actually think it gets through. But she didn't. He could afford to lose even with a call, so while it's still an awful play, it's relative
Posted on 7/16/24 at 9:39 am to Lolathon234
She’s drawing to a straight with one card left . Horrible play
Posted on 7/16/24 at 9:48 am to Double Oh
She was basically bluffing hoping he only had 1 pair. Picked the wrong spot. It happens all the time
Posted on 7/16/24 at 9:52 am to lance814
Yeah and I beat myself up when I make a mistake in a 150 dollar tournament I’m playing for fun.
Posted on 7/16/24 at 11:29 am to Lolathon234
quote:
Today. And after thinking about it a bit more, the primary issue with her play is their stacks. If she had him covered, I actually think it gets through. But she didn't. He could afford to lose even with a call, so while it's still an awful play, it's relative
I think Serock was trying to 2e the turn and sized a little too big. 2e would’ve been $10.5M (75% pot).
Hard to say, because in order to have him covered, she would’ve had $90M which changes everything. If they just flip stacks, he snap calls with AK.
Posted on 7/16/24 at 11:48 am to lance814
His sizing was to price out draws. He didn’t want AQ/AT/xx hearts seeing another card
This post was edited on 7/16/24 at 11:50 am
Posted on 7/16/24 at 2:17 pm to Lolathon234
You think he wants to “price out” hands with 9% equity? And if you’re talking about the flush variety of AQ/A10, those aren’t folding to an 80% pot bet as well as hands like Qx/10x hh/ss. Naked flush draws start to fold on a big bet.
Posted on 7/16/24 at 3:03 pm to lance814
He wanted to make them pay a premium to draw, yes. His sizing made continuing with a draw -EV
Posted on 7/16/24 at 5:05 pm to Lolathon234
Slightly -EV against his exact hand, but not against his range. The solver had Krissy’s exact hand as a call vs his turn 80% pot bet. You think a flush draw with a gutty is folding on the turn?
Posted on 7/16/24 at 5:27 pm to lance814
i love when the final table cuts deals for splitting pot, and playing for x amount to winner, and suckers think the game is on the square.
it happens ALL the time. poker is as fixed as harness racing and horse racing
it happens ALL the time. poker is as fixed as harness racing and horse racing
Posted on 7/16/24 at 7:50 pm to SeeeeK
Serock… oh no
I’m going for Astedt the online wizard now
This is his element now
I’m going for Astedt the online wizard now
This is his element now
Posted on 7/16/24 at 8:04 pm to Lawyered
Wow what a call by astedt
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