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re: Your Bold NCAA Predictions And Final Four

Posted on 3/19/14 at 12:45 pm to
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37909 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 12:45 pm to
Not with Lon Kruger they're not.
Posted by SabiDojo
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
84395 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:12 pm to
My final 4:

UF vs. UNC

OU vs. Michigan

UF over Michigan 61-49.

ETA: I've hardly watched any college hoops this year, so I wouldn't put too much faith in this bracket.

This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 1:13 pm
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Well there are 2 #4 seeds in the F4

so what? They are still consensus choices. If everyone tends to agree they willl win, their seeding is irrelevant. About 50% of people are picking Louisville to win their region. The fact they are a 4-seed matters not one bit.

quote:

Except that Kansas’s 29.1% defensive rebounding rate is 71st in the country and Joel Embiid ranks 12th in the nation in defensive rebounding rate..

Well, if we're going into analytics, defensive rebounding rate is not one of the Four Factors. OFFENSIVE rebounding is. Kansas ranks 20th in the nation.

They rank 16th in effective FG%, 235th in TO/possession, and 30th in free throw rate. So they do real well in 3 of the 4. They also rank 9th in the kenpom and their offense is ranked 6th (defense ranked 45th). OSU ranks 19th (122/4), Syracuse 15th (34/18), and New Mexico 28th (38/38/) to look at their bracket half. Florida, of course, ranks 3rd (17/5 offense/defense) but I think kenpom underrated schedule effects. Florida's best win all year is who? Kentucky? Memphis? They haven't beaten a top 7 seed. I'm skeptical of their dominance just as you would be of WSU (and I like the Shockers dual top ten ratings in offense and defense better).
Posted by SpartyGator
Detroit Lions fan
Member since Oct 2011
82657 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

They haven't beaten a top 7 seed


Florida beat KU in GNV in December

This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 1:16 pm
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:19 pm to
My elite 8 for the MSB

Okla St
Wisconsin

UF
Syracuse

Cincy [Part of me still wants to put Mich St in this]
Nova

Louisville
Michigan
This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 1:20 pm
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:20 pm to
Cool. I was looking at the tourney profile and it wasn't listed among their quality wins, which is a pretty big omission.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37909 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:25 pm to
Posted by UncleBlazer
Member since Jan 2013
3333 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:26 pm to
Final Four
UF
Wisconsin
Virginia
Michigan

Wisconsin 64-59 over UF

Bold Predictions

San Diego State making elite 8
Saint Louis making elite 8
Gonzaga upsetting Arizona
BYU over Oregon
UT over Umass
St. Joes making sweet 16
And













Delaware over MSU for the upset of the tournament
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37909 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

Saint Louis making elite 8
Gonzaga upsetting Arizona
That's really bad.
Posted by rockchlkjayhku11
Cincinnati, OH
Member since Aug 2006
36736 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:27 pm to
i agree with you about florida, fwiw. they just spent 3 months playing absolutely nobody. i think that getting tennessee and kentucky back to back in the sec tournament was huge for them, though. those are quality teams and they got to compete with them right before the tourney. it also showed me that they are way more beatable than people think.

i really, really wanna watch florida play VCU
This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 1:29 pm
Posted by SpartyGator
Detroit Lions fan
Member since Oct 2011
82657 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:27 pm to
That's odd , but no worries.
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:28 pm to
All you have done in this thread is shite on others predictions.
Posted by SpartyGator
Detroit Lions fan
Member since Oct 2011
82657 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

i think that getting tennessee and kentucky back to back in the sec tournament was huge for them, though. those are quality teams and they got to compete with them right before the tourney. it also showed me that they are way more beatable than people think.


Not disagreeing, and I will say those games actually were good prep for the tournament, too. I think them coasting the rest of the way without close games (they also were close @Vandy, AUB gave them fits both games), probably wouldn't have helped.
Posted by SpartyGator
Detroit Lions fan
Member since Oct 2011
82657 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Delaware over MSU for the upset of the tournament





but I could imagine the reactions with so many people picking the Spartans going to FF, NT.
This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 1:31 pm
Posted by UncleBlazer
Member since Jan 2013
3333 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:31 pm to
I dont watch much college bball outside the SEC so IDGAF. Mostly pick teams I want to see win
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37909 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:33 pm to
I'm thinking Delaware could beat MSU too..
Posted by UncleBlazer
Member since Jan 2013
3333 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:33 pm to
literally the only reason I picked it. What can I say, im a contrarian at heart
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37909 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

All you have done in this thread is shite on others predictions.
If people were serious about their picks there would be discussion.
Posted by footballtimeintn
Nashville
Member since Feb 2013
732 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:39 pm to
Final Four

Florida
Cincinnati
San Diego St
Louisville

Delaware beats Michigan St
SDSU beats Arizona in sweet 16 and makes final four
Dayton beats Ohio State

National Champ
Florida
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 1:40 pm to
Florida's essentially the #1 overall, and they are the most popular pick to win the bracket. Unless I love the team, there's no way I pick them. It doesn't make sense from an odds perspective. And I do not think UF is that overwhelmingly better to justify their massive popularity as the top pick. Like I said, I see where people zig, and then I zag. If this tourney is truly wide open, picking the favorite makes little sense.

I tend to think all of the top ten are about even, so I'm mostly avoiding the favorites. But of course Florida could very well win it. But if you're picking UF, that means you have to get everything else right, too. If I get Kansas right, I likely win my pool regardless.
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