Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Knowshon | Page 3 | Saints Talk
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re: Knowshon

Posted on 2/17/09 at 5:49 am to
Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
47430 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 5:49 am to
1- 10 for 52 2 for 11
2- 6 for 8 2 for 29
3- 6 for 15 3 for 8
4- 1 for 1
5- 0 for 0
6- 3 for 18
7- 1 for 2
8- 3 for 28
9- 6 for 26 5 for 34
10- 16 for 88 4 for 56
11- 15 for 87 3 for 34
12- 11 for 34 1 for 20
13- 16 for 102 1 for 7
14- 22 for 87 7 for 59
15- 13 for 77 3 for 26
16- 0 for 0 0 for 0

I threw up receiving yards, check out the yardage totals in the 6 games that he started. not to mention 12 tds for the year. the others already handled the other foolishness


LSUfan4444 = fool




Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 7:26 am to
i wish i had time today to hit each point individually, but unfortunately...we are a tad busy at work so i'll try to hit them collectively

Micahel Turner proved his worth as a backup for 3 years, not 1. And he didn't earn 99% of his resume in 1 year that he played on a team that racked up more yards then anyone else in the league (another misleading stat).

Not knocking his YPC average, but the YPC of a backup isn't very telling. They generally don't get the ball in critical times, and aren't the "go to guy", so the accumulation of state can often become easier.

Look at devery hedersons YPR #...he's averaged over 30 yards per catch the last 3 seasons....what does it say about him? That he has the talent to make plays, but we all have seen he is inconsistant....And we have seen this from a while now. He is a quality WR- FOR THE DEPTH CHART!



On to the playcalling....After this I won't even acknowledge it. A healthy football disucssion can go as far as blaming shite on playcalling or the refs, when it hits that point, it is gone past the point of rational discussion.


Moving on. As far as exactly how the saints will create cap room, i cannot tell you...for numerous reason. 1, i am at work and can't access cap numbers due to filters. 2, i can't buy groceries for a chef if i don't know his plans or what he is cooking.


This is what we know (or should- if you don't you are chocing to ignore it).

Payton has, and always had, an offensive mindset. His teams phylosophy will be based around the offenssive side of the ball. That is his personality, and for better or worse, it is what it is.

That being said, we all know the Saints will be active in free agency...How active, we don't know, but they will create cap room, letting some guys go and bringing other guys in.

We also know the chances of finding a guy to come in and help solidify a position on the defensive side of the ball are greater with an established FA then a rookie in the draft. 4 years down the road, not so much, but remember. Does Payton really care that much about finding defensive pro bowlers in 4 years? This year FA for defense really makes sense b/c there is a new coord so everyone is learning a new system so being new to the scheme won't hurt him.

So, now we know we will be active in FA and we need defensive help. And most should agree that for earlier successs FA is probably the better option for guys to come in and be a contributing piece to a better defense.

Now, maybe we disagree that the running game should be updated. Honestly, this is the only debatbale option at this point. Some may feel like after watching Thomas for 1 year, he can handle the workload and use Bush to compliment him and find a Rb through FA to compliment them both.

I come from a different school of thought. I believe you can find a RB this draft who can be the workload and contribute as a rookie as a starter (unlike on the defensive side of the ball) and use Thomas and Bush to compliment him.

Saying that option is somehow impossible, unreasonable or foolish is nothing more than an unbacked opinion.

There is no evidence or validity to anything that suggests the Saints could not be IMMEDIATELY better (division contender and playoff team) with a well rounded RB in the first round of the draft
and defensive needs through FA.

Now, if you want to fall in love with a YPC stat, go ahead...but make sure you love all YPC and YPR equally. I know, that won't happen and you'll likely point out differences and justify the reasons they are different, but you are either a stat guy or your not. Which is my point. They can be twisted and turned to look how you want them to look.

For some reason fans think they have to believe things with such definity.

"We have to draft this guy, or the draft is a bust"

"If they don't sign this guy _____________"


Be a little more open minded. Understand there are numerous ways to get the job done. First is establishing where the team had weaknesses, then making changes to correct those weaknesses.

If you don't see the inconsitency in the running game has been an achilles heel team even going back to 06, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. If you do agree it needs more consistency, there are numerous ways to address it, and drafting a well rounder RB in the first round who brings the tools required to be THE GUY in this offense certainly makes sense.


Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 7:28 am to
10- 16 for 88 4 for 56
11- 15 for 87 3 for 34

12- 11 for 34 1 for 20
13- 16 for 102 1 for 7
14- 22 for 87 7 for 59

15- 13 for 77 3 for 26
16- 0 for 0 0 for 0

I only see 4 games where he had enough touches to be considered the go to back. Extrapolate those (+5 tds)to a full season and you get this-
276 carries
1456 yds
60 catches
624 yds
20 tds

uh... good enough when given the touches.
Add having a dynamic hybrid back receiver that you need to get 15-20 touches also and that doesn't leave a lot of touches for another back. Yes, we do need a role playing pounder for short yardage. You might find someone affordable in Fred Taylor, Buckhalter, Michael Pittman, etc. There has been discusssion here of later round RB picks also- Andre Brown, Coffee, etc. Later Round RBs

Moreno or Wells dropping to #14 would not be any astounding occurrence as a BPA pick either. They might not even be the BPA at #14. If they were elite caliber I would go after them. Crabtree is a top 4, maybe the best overall talent in the draft. If he fell to #14 I would call him a can't pass even though it is a low need position. Scanning some repected mocks here's where KM & CW are- 19/21, 27/28, 16/17, 21/23, 16/19- so more of a reach than value.

I can't see the case for Moreno or Wells as a need or BPA pick.


Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 7:46 am to
quote:

Extrapolate those (+5 tds)to a full season


thats the problem...you can't

Its like taking the comp % of a career backup QB and saying it projects him as a starter. Very little credibility can be given to stretching stats out to "what could have been".

Even the number of touches for a RB to be the "go to guy" in your example can be debated. I mean, you really think getting 15 and 16 touches makes you the go to guy but 13 and 11 don't?

Look at what was, and take it for that- not what it could have been. Thomas had good points throughout the season. Then other times, he was invisible. And i don't mean when he had 0 carries either.

Your backup rb's come in on 3rd and 17 and get the draw that picks up 14 yards etc.

If you look at stats, you have to look past the numbers. Look at his sole 100 yard game of the season. Now, not knocking it, but remember that came against Atlanta when the Saints were running all over them and they were keyed in to stop brees.

Brees was 18/32 and even Reggie had a 10.00 ypc that game.

Look at the following week. Thomas puts up 87 on 22 carries. Now, if i told you 42 of that came on 1 run, does it look as impressive?

Then, look at week 11....PT went 15 for 87....does it look as impressive if i tell you that was in a route the Saints scored 51 points in? What if I tell you even in that game, he ripped off a 31 yarder to help his YPC.


I am not saying to take the long runs out of the equation, but they certainly beef up a stat like YPC like nothing else.

You can't just look at the numbers and project them over a season long basis. It is deeper then the numbers and Thomas has looked good, but inconsistent.

I think a consistent running game (not one that shows flashes here and there) is vital for this offense, and face it.....like it or not, this team goes as the offense goes.



Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
47430 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 7:49 am to
quote:

i wish i had time today to hit each point individually


bring it on later on.

quote:

Not knocking his YPC average, but the YPC of a backup isn't very telling. They generally don't get the ball in critical times, and aren't the "go to guy", so the accumulation of state can often become easier.


thomas accumulated most of his stats when he was the starting back

6 games 475 rushing yards, 5.1 ypc, 202 reciving yards, 10.6 ypr. oh, and a measly 9 tds.

quote:

If you don't see the inconsitency in the running game has been an achilles heel team even going back to 06, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. If you do agree it needs more consistency, there are numerous ways to address it, and drafting a well rounder RB in the first round who brings the tools required to be THE GUY in this offense certainly makes sense


alot of the inconsistency in the running game has been because of the inconsistancy of bush. thats going back to 06 when deuce was doing well and in 2007 when bush went out and stecker/thomas did pretty well. look at bushs numbers over the first 6 or so games or whatever last season. all 6 games he had double digit carries and had like 234 yards rushing total(I may not quite remember the exact amount but it is ballpark). the guy just cannot run the ball. check out what thomas did in his 6 game stretch running the ball, like I just pointed out, 5.1 ypc. only 1 game in that stretch was less than 4 ypc. when given the opportunity thomas has outplayed bush in this offense. going into next year thomas should get 15-20 carries and 5 receptions bush should get 5 or less carries and 6-8 receptions.
Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
47430 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 7:53 am to
quote:

I am not saying to take the long runs out of the equation, but they certainly beef up a stat like YPC like nothing else.


which stat do you want to look at? % of first down? successful run? td per touch? what do you want?

quote:

Thomas has looked good, but inconsistent.
inconsistent? inconsistent? thomas has been the model of consistency running the ball.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 8:00 am to
quote:

alot of the inconsistency in the running game has been because of the inconsistancy of bush


undoubtedly bush has his own faults in this, not saying the running games problems falls on PT's shoulder squarely at all

and i agree that PT has outplayed Bush as the RB for this team, but Bush isn't that player. He wasn't at USC, he isn't now and he'll never be. He isn't a guy you base your offense around, he is a guy you move around the field, get mismatches and let him use his athletic ability and speed in space.

If you're sold on Thomas after 1 season as a part time starter, you have more faith than me.

My opinion of thinking Moreno wouldn't be a bad draft pick is based on numerous things:

-the importance of a consistant running game in this offense is probably (IMO) the most crucial part to playoff success...they need something when brees isn't "on". We don't have Boldin and Fitz to make it easy for Brees. He needs something consistant to releive pressure sometimes.....Since 06, when he hasn't had it, the outcomes haven't been pretty.

-i'm just not sold on PT after 1 season. Too many times he was just a non factor for big chunks of the game. Yeah, he'd rip off a long run, but then you'd see him miss hole after hole for 2+ quarters.

I'm not saying PT can't be the guy. That no way can he do it, b/c it is quite possible that he could...BUT, if i had to address defense and the running game (which i think they do) and i could address one via draft and one via FA (which i think they are)...i see better fits for immediate impact on the defensive side through FA and very good fits for the running game via the draft.

Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 8:08 am to
quote:

which stat do you want to look at?


none...i'm not a stat guy

it is MUCH deeper then the stats.....Like against Chicago when he rushed for 87 yards and 42 came on 1 run. Where was he the other 21 carries (for 45 yards). Those are the types of things that worry me for him being a starter.

YES, he will put up good numbers. Look around the league and find me a good backup that doesn't have a good YPC average.

Sproles- 5.4 last year...4.4 the year before that
Chester taylor- he has only averaged under 4.00 once in his career and even that was 3.7
jerius norwood- 2008= 5.2 ypc, 2007= 6.0, 2006= 6.4
Kevin Faulk- 08= 6.1, 07= 4.3, 06= 4.9

and the list goes on and on and on....good YPC among backups are common.....VERY COMMON!

Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 8:12 am to
like i said...i'm not saying PT sucks, but finding a backup RB with good ypc stats is like finding a 3rd or 4th with speed and seing him with a good YPr average
This post was edited on 2/17/09 at 8:13 am
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 8:21 am to
I am not one to put a lot in statistical analysis and do rely more on my eyes. I do think it is more less opportunity than lack of skill for PT. He is no Clinton Portis workhorse but those are becoming extinct. To me, 15-16 touches isn't really "go to". That's 20+ IMO. But the NFL fashion/evolution is the multi-back approach ala NYG, Carolina, etc.

We have 2 components of that design. Deuce was the perfect compliment (like 2006) and we only need another piece IMO, not a fulltime load guy (that would in effect reduce the effectiveness of RB & PT).

Ranking 1st, 4th, & 1st in total offense under Payton shows how far as this team can go on offense alone. The offense left unchanged with a defense that can become just average will be a Super Bowl contender. The Pats, Colts, and Cardinals are most similar to NO- dynamic offense with D's that ranked from 10th-19th.

I'd even go RB if they were an overwhelming BPA attraction (like Crabtreeif at #14). Either KM or CW are a reach at #14. You see a chasm that is so great we need to stretch and take a guy that gets 20-30 touches a game (if he doesn't he shouldn't be taken 1st rd). I see a gap that needs filling with a short yardage pounder needed for 10ish carries. We'll just see where they go since they don't take our bleacher GMing advice anyway.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
177017 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 10:27 am to
As much as I would like it (I was in love with Mendenhall last year)... we need to give Gregg Williams some talent to work with or else we are waisting a brilliant hire.
Posted by Jaydeaux
Covington
Member since May 2005
19592 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 10:57 am to
quote:

So y wouldnt u address our biggest needs and problems?


I'm sure you have some history on your side.... When have the Saints gotten a huge boost from a DB their rookie season?
Posted by Jaydeaux
Covington
Member since May 2005
19592 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 11:11 am to
CM84 = typical Saints douche. Thinks he should be the coach.

Williams will turn the D around with the guys he has. Harper will be a totally different player under Williams as will a few other guys.

Knowshon would be the best player available, similar to a guy named Duce (not a similar player just best player). We take that guy and draft some D with the few other pics.

It DOES matter what conference as to what type of D quality they face. It's not the only factor but show me a RB that kicked arse in the SEC (to the hype level of Reggie)that couldn't play RB in the NFL. THe guy killed everyone in the PAC 2 and can't do shite unless he's in the open field. He's a great punt returner but he's not a RB so suck on it CM84
Posted by Spain
Barcelona
Member since Jan 2009
166 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 12:17 pm to
Even if Adrian Peterson were in this draft and we had a shot at him, I would still go with a defensive selection. This is a major need.
Posted by LSUtigahs28
Member since Sep 2008
14561 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

They generally don't get the ball in critical times, and aren't the "go to guy", so the accumulation of state can often become easier.


So who, for the Saints did the get the ball in go-to situations?

Because bush was injured much of the season and Deuce had fewer carries than PT.

In fact when PT was at him best was when he was starting.

quote:


Look at devery hedersons YPR #...he's averaged over 30 yards per catch the last 3 seasons....what does it say about him? That he has the talent to make plays, but we all have seen he is inconsistant....And we have seen this from a while now. He is a quality WR- FOR THE DEPTH CHART!


Stupid comparison.

Devery Henderson was 124th in the league in Receptions along with such names as Daniel Graham, Chansi Stuckey, and Jason Avant

PT was 42nd in rushes. That puts him around guys like Earnest Graham, Tim Hightower, and Joseph Addai.

Of course you can't look at Devery's YPA and say he's starting quality because his number of receptions points out that he is a purely a deep threat. On the other hand PT got a lot of touches(Lead the team and started a number of games).

quote:

A healthy football disucssion can go as far as blaming shite on playcalling or the refs, when it hits that point, it


Uh huh whatever you say. Playcalling is always correct and shouldn't be critiqued

quote:


Moving on. As far as exactly how the saints will create cap room, i cannot tell you...for numerous reason. 1, i am at work and can't access cap numbers due to filters. 2, i can't buy groceries for a chef if i don't know his plans or what he is cooking.



I can tell you the Saints are in the second worst position in the league cap wise. We don't have the money to go after a Suggs, a Landry, or Dawkins.

quote:


Payton has, and always had, an offensive mindset. His teams phylosophy will be based around the offenssive side of the ball. That is his personality, and for better or worse, it is what it is.


Of course, but you are ignoring the fact that we traded UP to go get a defensive player we wanted last year meaning Peyton is committed to adding talent to the other side of the ball.

quote:


I come from a different school of thought. I believe you can find a RB this draft who can be the workload and contribute as a rookie as a starter (unlike on the defensive side of the ball) and use Thomas and Bush to compliment him.


While leaving one of Bullocks, Shandle, or Harper on the starting roster.

Look at it from a Value over replacement thought process. Almost by definition any WLB or S we draft will have a higher VORP.

quote:


Now, if you want to fall in love with a YPC stat, go ahead...but make sure you love all YPC and YPR equally.


Again with your stupidity.

The player with the highest YPA in the NFL this past year was Quinn Gray with 27.0 do you seem me yelling that we should use him as a starting RB? No. Because I know that low Receptions or Attempts generally biases YPA/YPR.

Henderson has a low # of receptions PT doesn't have a low Attempts.

Again refute this point for me.

Adrian Peterson the best RB in the NFL had only one game of over 100 yards this year when given <20 touches.

Why do you expect PT to have 100 yard games when he is given <20 per game and even the best RB in the league isn't expected to accumulate 100 yard without getting 20 touches.
Posted by Bad Cat
Painted Post, NY
Member since Jan 2004
12091 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 1:55 pm to
If a top CB is not available, then Knowshon is an option.

Our offense last year was too dependent on the pass. Keeping our crapy defense off the field is a good thing!
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
50308 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

When have the Saints gotten a huge boost from a DB their rookie season?


Last year.

And just because the Saints suck at drafting DBs doesn't mean they should avoid it. Look at how many CBs are making huge contributions in their first few seasons. DRC this year was a huge help for the Cards, Revis was good last year and made the Pro Bowl this season, Talib had some quality time in TB, ditto Phillips and Ross in NY, Landry is a beast in his two years, Antonio Cromartie was great in his first two years (sucked this past one).

quote:

Williams will turn the D around with the guys he has.


He'll almost definitely improve it, but it still won't be in the same league as the offense, even if PT sucks as much dick as you guys seem to think. Ensuring future quality on the OL would be a good decision, but no point in wasting a high pick on a position that doesn't look to be an issue.
This post was edited on 2/17/09 at 2:00 pm
Posted by LSUtigahs28
Member since Sep 2008
14561 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 2:17 pm to
quote:


If a top CB is not available, then Knowshon is an option.


CB isn't a need

S and OLB are both bigger defensive needs than CB right now.

Don't forget that Jenkins played well for the Cowboys before getting hurt.

Again AD can't get 100 yards without 20 carries most of the time, but 4444 knows PT is shite because PT doesn't get at least 100 yards despite only getting 10-16 carries.
This post was edited on 2/17/09 at 2:18 pm
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56884 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

4444 knows PT is shite because PT doesn't get at least 100 yards despite only getting 10-16 carries


this is why you are beyond a rational discussion


lets take a look at other backups who put up numbers as good or better than PT's...we already saw Faulks, sproles, Taylors & Norwoods

Correl Buckhalter- 4.9 ypc
maurice Morris- 4.3 ypc
Adrian Peterson (chi)- 5.0 ypc
Tashard Choice- 5.1 ypc (lowest carry total @ 92)
darren McFadden - 4.4 ypc
Denver- they didn't have 1 RB on the team average less than 4.2, and everyone but 1 was over 5.0
Mewelde Moore- 4.2 ypc
fred Jackson - 4.4 ypc

All these backs, plus the ones i mentioned earlier are all averaging at least 4.oo ypc....ITS WHAT GOOD BACKUP RB'S DO ALL AROUND THE LEAGE EVERY YEAR!


Posted by Bad Cat
Painted Post, NY
Member since Jan 2004
12091 posts
Posted on 2/17/09 at 3:43 pm to
Beanie Wells is worn out. He will be injured his entire career in the NFL.

Knowshon is the man!
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