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Message
re: Overtime needs to be changed.
Posted on 12/12/08 at 7:22 am to H-Town Tiger
Posted on 12/12/08 at 7:22 am to H-Town Tiger
I may be wrong put doesn't the %'s play out that the team that LOSES the coin toss IN ot usually win the game?
1
Posted on 12/12/08 at 7:33 am to TigerColonel
Each team should have an offensive possession....it's the only thing that makes sense. I'd feel the same had the Saints won.....NFL OT rules are rediculous.
That said, we should have never been in that position. The defense played well in the second half...all the up until we took the lead. Why we sat back and let them dink and dunk down the field is beyond me....why would you change what has been working.
That said, we should have never been in that position. The defense played well in the second half...all the up until we took the lead. Why we sat back and let them dink and dunk down the field is beyond me....why would you change what has been working.
Posted on 12/12/08 at 7:42 am to threeputt
quote:
I may be wrong put doesn't the %'s play out that the team that LOSES the coin toss IN ot usually win the game?
Wrong -- from the link posted earlier:
quote:
From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once).
quote:
The dreaded 'lose-the-coin-toss-never-touch-the-ball' scenario happened in 37 out of the 124 OT periods, or about 30% of all overtime games
So the Saints should be statistically likely to at least touch the ball in their next 2 OT games where the they lose the toss.
Another interesting correlation from the link:
quote:
In 1994, the NFL moved the kickoff line from the 40 to the 30 to reduce touchbacks and increase scoring. But unwittingly, this change also increased the frequency of the never-touch-the-ball phenomenon in OT.
I could get behind just moving the kickoff up to the 40 for OT.
This post was edited on 12/12/08 at 7:51 am
Posted on 12/12/08 at 9:40 am to oilfieldtiger
quote:
Wrong -- from the link posted earlier:
quote:
From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once).
So a seven year sample is your proof? I would like a historic perspective. I believe that it is very close to 50 / 50.
Posted on 12/12/08 at 11:55 am to threeputt
Addition OT Stats
It's an article from 2004. Cumulative data from 1974-2003 shows a 52% / 44% / 4% W/L/T record for the team winning the toss.
But a definite effect from the kickoff being moved back in 1994.
This kind of ties in w/ the advancednflstats.com article in the rise kicker skill as well.
It's an article from 2004. Cumulative data from 1974-2003 shows a 52% / 44% / 4% W/L/T record for the team winning the toss.
But a definite effect from the kickoff being moved back in 1994.
This kind of ties in w/ the advancednflstats.com article in the rise kicker skill as well.
This post was edited on 12/12/08 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 12/12/08 at 3:13 pm to threeputt
I give up. I don't understand how 7 years of statistics, still does not satisfy you.
Posted on 12/12/08 at 3:22 pm to nolauser
it satisfies me. 30% of the coin toss winners win. thats pretty acceptable to me over a 7 year period. how many were the actual better team? Id guess the majority of them.
Posted on 12/12/08 at 3:38 pm to diat150
quote:
From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once). That's a relatively large advantage, particularly when compared to home field advantage.
60% not 30%
Posted on 12/12/08 at 5:36 pm to nolauser
My vote is College OT 
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