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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 7/1/14 at 8:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 7/1/14 at 8:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Here you can see how the storm formed throughout the day.. pretty rare and awesome to be able to see it on radar cause they usually form well away from land
3
Posted on 7/1/14 at 8:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
It looks like the center of circulation moved east as time moved on.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 8:33 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
It looks like the center of circulation moved east as time moved on.
it looks that way cause you see different levels of circulation on radar/satellite, because the storm was tilted. As it strengthened, it tightened up and became more vertically stacked which makes it look as if it moved east, when in reality the storm hasn't moved much at all.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
This thing has really blown up, but NHC won't change the advisory much until they get proof from recon later tonight..
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Here you can see how the storm formed throughout the day.. pretty rare and awesome to be able to see it on radar cause they usually form well away from land
I was talking with a guy at work today about how we need to get radar equipped solar powered drones to deploy over systems. This has been a very interesting system to track from origins in the Gulf to all the data that is being collected on it. Many thesis and dissertation will be generated from the data collected on this system.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This thing has really blown up, but NHC won't change the advisory much until they get proof from recon later tonight..
The system is still not vertically stacked and we are probably seeing the mid-level vort on radar. Also, that convective tail that is blowing up to the south could be a hindrance if it doesn't get wrapped in soon. The HWRF seems to be performing pretty well so far with the system. It has the tilt, it has the blow up of convection on that feeder ban, then a decrease in overall convection later tonight before a rebirth of sorts. It will be interesting to see if that massive feeder ban blowup will kick of some subsidence over the center over the next few hours.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:33 pm to rds dc
honestly I haven't been paying as much attention as I used to but it looks like it's pulling in some serious dry air from florida and georgia.... hampering southern eyewall development
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
The system is still not vertically stacked and we are probably seeing the mid-level vort on radar.
NWS Melbourne just tweeted out their thoughts:
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
The system is still not vertically stacked and we are probably seeing the mid-level vort on radar.
I'm not convinced the llc we see on radar hasn't completely separated and arthur hasn't reformed to the east until recon confirms... no matter what Melbourne says
eta:
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:you can see the two centers of circulation on the satellite loop I posted. The darker low level circulation is offset to the west of the obvious "eye"
I'm not convinced the llc we see on radar hasn't completely separated and arthur hasn't reformed to the east until recon confirms... no matter what Melbourne says
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:44 pm to baytiger
quote:
honestly I haven't been paying as much attention as I used to but it looks like it's pulling in some serious dry air from florida and georgia.... hampering southern eyewall development
Yep, it is going to struggle with dry air as long as it stays vertically tilted like it is, even in a relatively low shear environment. Tyler has some really cool HWRF cross sections on his website that highlight the issue:
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:47 pm to baytiger
quote:
you can see the two centers of circulation on the satellite loop I posted. The darker low level circulation is offset to the west of the obvious "eye"
i agree thats what you see, im saying im not convinced that llc is still associated with arthur
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 10:49 pm
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:49 pm to rds dc
wow those are pretty sweet. I like the top center VV chart, it really highlights the convection on the east side.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
Damn Freeport getting hammered.. Hope everybody is safe. I'm going July 20th
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
i agree thats what you see, im saying im not convinced that llc is still associated with arthur
It really depends, when you have a tilted system you can get the LLC kind of dancing around. Or there could be a couple of vorts rotating around each other. I just don't put a lot of stock in LLC "reforming" under mid-level vort. It can certainly happen but not as often as people call for it happening. Both the Euro and HWRF show convection fading with the mid-level vort and then making a comeback with the LLC later on.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:56 pm to rds dc
The 18z models have shite data in them though. I'm not saying yall are wrong.. I'm just saying i'm keeping an open mind until 00z models and recon comes back.
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:03 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
he 18z models have shite data in them though.
Where do you see that?
quote:
I'm not saying yall are wrong.. I'm just saying i'm keeping an open mind until 00z models and recon comes back.
Yep, without Recon in there a lot is left up to interpretation. However, the 00z GFS was initialized with a tilted system and 03z CIMSS analysis seems to still support that.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:04 pm to rds dc
idk.. well frick.. i haven't slept in 38 hours.. night yall..
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:06 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
i haven't slept in 38 hours.. night yall.
Get some sleep
Posted on 7/2/14 at 7:53 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
i haven't slept in 38 hours
Damn
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