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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:34 pm to rds dc
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:34 pm to rds dc
Could y'all add a glossary of commonly used terms and maybe a brief explanation of each of the models in the OP. This is interesting stuff but most of the words you use are industry specific and not commonly used.
2
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:43 pm to LSUGrrrl
I guess I'll go to Grand Isle another weekend.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:44 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Could y'all add a glossary of commonly used terms and maybe a brief explanation of each of the models in the OP. This is interesting stuff but most of the words you use are industry specific and not commonly used.
I'll try to put some together..
eta: here's a good one:
LINK
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 6/25/14 at 10:17 pm to GEAUXmedic
The models are taking the vorticity spun up by the storms today and rotating it around the edge of the ridge and eventually dumping it off the SE coast. It then spins up into a TD or weak TS.
Something interesting to watch but not really...
Something interesting to watch but not really...
Posted on 6/26/14 at 4:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 6/26/14 at 10:50 pm to rds dc
That vort max from yesterday has survived and is now crossing into Georgia.
Both the GFS and Euro take it off the SE coast but the Euro keeps it farther off the Florida coast and that allows it to develop a bit more. One, very remote, option to watch would be for a closed surface low to develop and sink south and then back across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf. No model shows this, but it is how something could end up in the Gulf. However, it looks like the incoming through will be plenty deep enough to kick out whatever is hanging out down there.
In the 7+ day range it might be worth watching the western Gulf for a quick spin up. Forcing looks to be favorable and if the ridge can relax enough then there might be a window for something to happen.
Posted on 6/26/14 at 11:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
One, very remote, option to watch would be for a closed surface low to develop and sink south and then back across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf. No model shows this, but it is how something could end up in the Gulf.
The 00z doesn't get it into the Gulf but drops it a good bit farther south than previous runs and even bleeds off some vorticity.
Posted on 6/27/14 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
Pretty crazy run for the 18z GFS
Posted on 6/27/14 at 10:21 pm to rds dc
IS that two low pressure systems dancing?
Posted on 6/28/14 at 8:09 am to burgeman
Invest 91L has formed off the SE US coast..
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A weak low pressure system located just off the coast of South
Carolina is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
This post was edited on 6/28/14 at 8:30 am
Posted on 6/28/14 at 9:14 am to rds dc
quote:
Pretty crazy run for the 18z GFS
shite like this is why I love and hate modeling all at the same time.
Its produces beautiful pictures, videos,scenarios, that sometimes make absolutely no fricking sense.
Posted on 6/29/14 at 9:48 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Its produces beautiful pictures, videos,scenarios, that sometimes make absolutely no fricking sense.
While it didn't make "sense" it was certainly possible, mathematically speaking
The recon for 91L got canceled today but it would've been interesting to see the 00z models with that data ingested. It looks like there could be some drier air in the mid-levels, esp. to the north of the LLC. That combined with some shear is working to keep the system in struggle mode right now. Also, that huge blowup of storms across the Florida peninsula today didn't help the system in anyway.
Posted on 6/29/14 at 9:51 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm sure this has been discussed, but a weather board would be super duper.
Posted on 6/29/14 at 10:35 pm to burgeman
It's called the fujiwhara effect.
Wiki entry
Wiki entry
Posted on 6/30/14 at 1:42 pm to LSU2001
91L has been strengthening today, convection should increase over the next few hours. Recon just went through and brought back TS force surface winds, but they're invalid so winds are likely below TS strength. Pressure down to 1011 mb, I'd expect at least a TD this afternoon...
Posted on 6/30/14 at 2:07 pm to GEAUXmedic
Florida/georgia/carolinas folk look out
quote:
@NHC_Atlantic
Invest 91L is becoming better organized. TS watches for NE/Central Florida possible if it becomes a tropical cyclone. pic.twitter.com/BiIqaXz4cZ
This post was edited on 6/30/14 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 2:19 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 6/30/14 at 4:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Looks like the center is going to be SW of what was used for the 18z models. Normally not a big deal but could be significant with how close this is forecast to come to Florida. Drifting inland or riding the coast vs. 100+ miles offshore could change how things play out over the next couple of days.
The models just don't have the resolution to resolve some of the small scale convective things going on today. That convection that was to the SW of the center has really gotten going this afternoon and the LLC just went crashing towards it. Also, the dry air will be worked out as convection works to moisten the column. How long that takes is really just a guess at this point.
The best thing about today, all models pretty much agree that this gets kicked out well east of DC & NYC. The hyperbole would be unbearable... "This may not be a hurricane but I think it qualifies as a 'Super Tropical Storm' and the impact on society will be Cat 5 like this holiday weekend!"
The models just don't have the resolution to resolve some of the small scale convective things going on today. That convection that was to the SW of the center has really gotten going this afternoon and the LLC just went crashing towards it. Also, the dry air will be worked out as convection works to moisten the column. How long that takes is really just a guess at this point.
The best thing about today, all models pretty much agree that this gets kicked out well east of DC & NYC. The hyperbole would be unbearable... "This may not be a hurricane but I think it qualifies as a 'Super Tropical Storm' and the impact on society will be Cat 5 like this holiday weekend!"
Posted on 6/30/14 at 4:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
The best thing about today, all models pretty much agree that this gets kicked out well east of DC & NYC. The hyperbole would be unbearable... "This may not be a hurricane but I think it qualifies as a 'Super Tropical Storm' and the impact on society will be Cat 5 like this holiday weekend!"
I'm not sold on where this one will go at all.. that being said.. here's a good idea
LINK
This post was edited on 6/30/14 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 9:05 pm to GEAUXmedic
satellite looks impressive to me for being nothing much of a system at the moment.
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