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re: Some 1.543 million homes are currently under construction (single- and multi-family units)
Posted on 2/17/22 at 11:09 pm to Street Hawk
Posted on 2/17/22 at 11:09 pm to Street Hawk
Alright so when is the 2008 real estate bust?
1
Posted on 2/18/22 at 4:54 am to Street Hawk
It’s taking longer than it’s ever taken to build homes. Supply chain, labor issues, and customer impatience is extending the time. If I had to guess this would account for about 25-30 percent of that number.
If rates go up quickly it will be devastating. Costs are higher than ever and the margins are razor thin. If rates go up there is going to be another housing bust due to people not being able to get their costs back out of the spec homes they are building.
If rates go up quickly it will be devastating. Costs are higher than ever and the margins are razor thin. If rates go up there is going to be another housing bust due to people not being able to get their costs back out of the spec homes they are building.
This post was edited on 2/18/22 at 4:57 am
Posted on 2/18/22 at 6:53 am to kisatchie53
quote:In the formerly nice, soon to be section 8, neighborhood that was built just 10 years ago. Just look to Ascension Parish to see how this dynamic works.
Where the frick did all these people live before?
Posted on 2/18/22 at 6:58 am to The Goon
quote:
. Prices will have to fall, but how far?
After Katrina a neighborhood near me was selling lots in the 60-80k range. After the 2008 collapse those lots tumbled to $10-20k still have some on the market for $30 and under. Local market never recovered
Posted on 2/18/22 at 7:00 am to Street Hawk
As I stated in another thread, here in middle TN, Williamson County in particular, we have the lowest inventory in history of both new and existing homes for sale. I suspect builders are seeing the migration data we see and building in areas where the growth is headed. I know its the O-T, but people are voting with their feet. People are leaving areas they feel no longer represents their ideals. Its the biggest migration in the US since the California Gold Rush. Think about the impact a shift in population like that has on the availability of housing.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 7:06 am to ItNeverRains
quote:
People are leaving areas they feel no longer represents their ideals
Not sure this is true. People are fleeing some areas for others, but it doesn't appear to affect their political views. They just don't want to be under the oppression they continue to vote for.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 7:08 am to Fat and Happy
quote:
Alright so when is the 2008 real estate bust?
How many subprime borrowers will be in those 1.543 million homes?
Posted on 2/18/22 at 7:18 am to GetCocky11
I don't feel like we have the sub prime situation as in 2008. Most loans are written with a low interest rate. I'm a super for a builder that does 350-400 new homes a year. I am seeing a bunch of buyers coming in with cash paying full price. I do believe interest rates will tick up, possibly slowing things. I still haven't seen the signs that point to 2008 melt down. But, with the crazy world right now, I could see some type of political event turning things upside down. But what do I know !
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:02 am to stout
quote:
Now we are going to have to raise rates to fight inflation. It's going to get ugly IMO
Thats what I'm afraid of
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:04 am to HerkFlyer
quote:
Black rock/vanguard finna eat
Yeah...thats another issue all together
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:11 am to KCkid
Most people are terrible at saving money so I'm baffled by all of these cash offers on homes (aside from someone who just sold their parents' house in CA moving elsewhere).
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:31 am to Jon Ham
We are just starting to build one that we bought property for two years ago
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:34 am to GetCocky11
quote:
How many subprime borrowers will be in those 1.543 million homes?
Less than in 2005-2009.
We have a major inventory shortage right now even in fairly moderate growth areas like Baton Rouge. I don't think anything is going to stop it unless they start hiking interest rates or if the economy completely tanks.
You'll see issues in Florida, Las Vegas, and in the Carolinas first.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:35 am to Street Hawk
Most real estate purchases these days are being made by investment firms and not families
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:36 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
St Bernard Parish has their share
They still haven't recovered from their pre-Katrina numbers. But I'm glad they are seeing somewhat of a surge right now.
Lucky for St. Bernard....their street grid and most of their infrastructure was built for a population larger than present day. So they'll have less growing pains than other areas.
Can't say the same for the north shore or most of Baton Rouge. You guys are all going to spend your life in your cars for the next few years.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:37 am to metallica81788
That’s what I don’t get, I keep seeing “cash offer” but I’m guessing it’s not someone buying a house with 300k they just had laying around.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:38 am to goldennugget
quote:
Most real estate purchases these days are being made by investment firms and not families
That's extremely disturbing.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:43 am to stout
quote:
might leave a ton of these new construction homes unfinished or unsellable just like in 2008
Hopefully. Hard to find anything that will cash flow at the moment. I don’t mind if the bottom drops out again
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:44 am to GetCocky11
quote:
How many subprime borrowers will be in those 1.543 million homes?
Just because that was the reason for the crash in 2008, doesn't mean it has the be the factor for this crash. I don't think ppl are saying it's the exact same crash, but that we will have a similar outcome. Just for different reasons.
Housing prices are through the roof--add in higher interest rates and it's just not sustainable. There will be a reset (maybe/maybe not a recession) has to be. There is no justification for the same new construction homes costing 200-400k more than they did in 2019. Lumber hasn't gone up that much. I think a lot of these builders are taking advantage of the market and buyers will just stop buying now that all of that free government money has stopped coming in (800billon in PPP loans).
Posted on 2/18/22 at 8:52 am to goldennugget
quote:
Most real estate purchases these days are being made by investment firms and not families
Exactly. Wages as a whole haven't increased and kept up with inflation for quite sometime. Go to all major markets and you have 20+ bids on single family 1700 SF homes within an hour of listing if it even gets there with "people" bidding $20k+ over asking.
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