Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Tropical Storm Cindy | Page 11 | O-T Lounge
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re: Tropical Storm Cindy

Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:25 pm to
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

I say ANYONE in southeast Louisiana who owns a home lower than two feet above the ground who STILL doesn't have flood insurance after Katrina, Isaac, March 2016 & August 2016 is a dumbass living either in denial or under a gotdamn rock and deserves the unimaginable cleanup and rebuilding task if they flood this time.



Two feet? Try 10 feet anything under 10 feet about sea level should have flood insurance.
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34214 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:26 pm to
The ground can't take anymore. Baton Rouge just had another good soaking today.

If 20+ inches of rain for BTR area, it might be the final straw for many before they get the hell outta dodge.
Posted by TennesseeFan25
Honolulu
Member since May 2016
8391 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

If 20+ inches of rain for BTR area, it might be the final straw for many before they get the hell outta dodge.



No way, statues being removed have opened a myriad of opportunity for the city and it's inhabitants
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
80177 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

What would 17 inches of rain do to New Orleans?



May 8, 1995
Posted by TunaTigers
Nola
Member since Dec 2007
5368 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:28 pm to
Depends on how quick it falls, but if I am reading that map right it covers 5 days. Pumps could easily keep up as long as the power doesn't fail. Minor street flooding and such.
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
37980 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:30 pm to
quote:

small shift westward would result in a March 2016 type scenario on the Amite.

Don't say that




Please.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Depends on how quick it falls


this.

a couple days ago it monsoon'd for less than 30 minutes (probably had an inch of rain?) - but there was water up to midcalf in some areas.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
80177 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Depends on how quick it falls, but if I am reading that map right it covers 5 days. Pumps could easily keep up as long as the power doesn't fail. Minor street flooding and such.



The NOLA system can drain 1 inch the first hour and a half inch per hour after that.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21228 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:37 pm to
This is the official WPC rainfall forecast, the models are showing more but this is the official thinking

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51374 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:51 pm to
18z GFS was even a little further west. It's weird how the storm almost stops for a couple of frames before finally making landfall. Maybe some troughiness causing that?

Anyway, here it is:

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21228 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:59 pm to
quote:

18z GFS was even a little further west. It's weird how the storm almost stops for a couple of frames before finally making landfall. Maybe some troughiness causing that?


Yea, it appears that the trough to the N doesn't dig enough to quickly capture the system and move it off to the NE. So it kind of gets trapped b/w the ridges on either side of it.

Posted by gsvar2004
Member since Nov 2007
8820 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:11 pm to
Do these models predict heavy winds, or just a rain maker?
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39894 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:11 pm to
rain maker
Posted by biohzrd
Central City
Member since Jan 2010
5897 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:17 pm to
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6698 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:24 pm to
When does this hit?
Posted by MottLaneKid
Gonzales
Member since Apr 2012
4543 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:29 pm to
00z pressure looks like 1004mb. Don't want to be on the east side of eventual TC track.

One tropical study indicated projected rainfall amounts could be approximated by Tropical cyclone motion by speed/100 such as a TC motion of 10 mph would equate to around 10 inches of rainfall on eastern side of cyclone center.

This post was edited on 6/18/17 at 7:31 pm
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:30 pm to
Cat 1 or just a tropical storm?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:37 pm to
Probably TS. Man I hope this thing moves east away from Louisiana. If it ends up on a westward track hopefully it hits as close to Mexico as possible. The projections on rain is a lot but it's all on how fast it comes down.
Posted by TennesseeFan25
Honolulu
Member since May 2016
8391 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:40 pm to
So we are down in Gulfport for a training for a few more weeks.

Do we have any idea what day this may be hitting? This week? Next week?

We are literally within a half mile of the coast line, so wondering what's going to be going on with all this
Posted by MottLaneKid
Gonzales
Member since Apr 2012
4543 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 7:40 pm to
Did not specify. Last August 2016: warm core low pressure stalls over southern Louisiana and drops 19-31 inches of rainfall over 72 hour period. Efficient circulation was drawing in rich gulf moisture over the eastern and southeastern sides of the low pressure system. Precipitable water amounts exceeded 2.2 inches in the atmosphere. You don't want a system to stall inland obviously. Troical storm Allison 2001 did quite the flooding in southeast Texas and Louisiana.

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