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Started By
Message
re: United States Oil Production by Month
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:08 pm to mattz1122
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:08 pm to mattz1122
quote:
Supply. Both Western producers and OPEC aren’t producing like they were pre-2020. For public Western companies, there’s pressure from shareholders to forgo growth to increase dividends and pay down debt. The industry historically has done neither, and investors revolted. Companies need financing to grow production, so they listen to financiers. OPEC is still tight on the spigots given that they don’t completely trust the fundaments after supply was bountiful for most of the last decade. Meanwhile, demand has grown continually since the beginning of the pandemic.
I don’t have any serious disagreements with that. I just don’t think it tells the entire story. I think it goes back to even pre election where companies and investors aren’t about to start production projects when one party is talking about a serious shift from fossil fuels and severe regulations.
Combine that with a derailed economy from the pandemic with low demand and they are going to be really gunshy about future production.
Trump was all about moving on from the pandemic very early on and limited restrictions on oil and gas. I have no doubt that would have allowed us to respond much better to rising prices we see now.
And just wait, this is the beginning, because the democrats actually want his oil prices because it furthers their green energy agenda. It will become very clear as time goes on.
2
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:09 pm to billjamin
quote:
Access to capital for O&G is absolute shite right
Why?
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Can you now break down the new regs that are constraining current US production?
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:12 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Why?
Because they lied to investors for years about getting to a point where they would produce cash.
The backlash has been swift. It’ll take years to rebuild the relationships that were burned.
This post was edited on 3/4/22 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:13 pm to Penrod
I have watched several interviews on CNBC the past few months from oil industry executives.
In all of them they have said that the financial markets and banks are not lending due to pressure from the administration and green investors pressure on Wall St. They have reverted to a high yield/high profitability plan and capped production plan in order to raise necessary capital. They have been burnt twice in the last 15 years with crushing crashes and are not going to have that happen again.
The administration definitely is hurting needed production growth, but an aversion to market bubbles popping is another factor.
Is Russia going to be off the production grid for the West for the long term? I doubt it. If that is the case; drill baby drill would lead to another price collapse eventually
In all of them they have said that the financial markets and banks are not lending due to pressure from the administration and green investors pressure on Wall St. They have reverted to a high yield/high profitability plan and capped production plan in order to raise necessary capital. They have been burnt twice in the last 15 years with crushing crashes and are not going to have that happen again.
The administration definitely is hurting needed production growth, but an aversion to market bubbles popping is another factor.
Is Russia going to be off the production grid for the West for the long term? I doubt it. If that is the case; drill baby drill would lead to another price collapse eventually
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:14 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Seriously tell me where I'm playing with the numbers
Because supply was matched to demand during trump and rose steadily with the economy. The absolute number is a cherry pick.
We can’t respond to a supply shortage quickly because of biden’s many policy statements going back almost 2 years.
Let’s use your logic: Biden produced twice as much oil as Bill Clinton. What does that tell you? Absolutely nothing. It’s about wether the production is able to meet the demand effectively. We were a net energy exporter under trump because his policies allowed us to produce oil and gas cheaply and efficiently.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:15 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
In all of them they have said that the financial markets and banks are not lending due to pressure from the administration and green investors pressure on Wall St. They have reverted to a high yield/high profitability plan and capped production plan in order to raise necessary capital.
Thank you
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:18 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
In all of them they have said that the financial markets and banks are not lending due to pressure from the administration and green investors pressure on Wall St.
Blaming the government without admitting that you fricked investors for over a decade seems disingenuous.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:20 pm to mattz1122
LINK
I’m just going to give you one example of MANY
Happy? My guess is not.
You are going to say “yea but he didn’t halt drilling!”
And it matters not one but. Ask yourself, if you were an investor is that a climate you want to invest in oil and gas?
quote:
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is indefinitely freezing decisions about new federal oil and gas drilling as part of a legal brawl with Republican-led states that could significantly impact President Biden’s plans to tackle climate change. The move, which came Saturday, was a response to a recent federal ruling that blocked the way the Biden administration was calculating the real cost of climate change, a figure that guides a range of government decisions, from pollution regulation to whether to permit new oil, gas or coal extraction on public lands and in federal waters.
I’m just going to give you one example of MANY
Happy? My guess is not.
You are going to say “yea but he didn’t halt drilling!”
And it matters not one but. Ask yourself, if you were an investor is that a climate you want to invest in oil and gas?
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:24 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Thanks for again proving you’re clueless about the industry. 
Cancelling lease sales might impact production 2, 5 or 10 years down the road depending on the lease.
Meanwhile green investing makes up like 25% of the equation, and half of them are virtue signaling because the sector has historically been terrible for investors. And the industry track record for investors is the primary problem.
Cancelling lease sales might impact production 2, 5 or 10 years down the road depending on the lease.
Meanwhile green investing makes up like 25% of the equation, and half of them are virtue signaling because the sector has historically been terrible for investors. And the industry track record for investors is the primary problem.
This post was edited on 3/4/22 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:26 pm to billjamin
They are offering 9-10% guaranteed dividends. I would say they are acknowledging the past when attempting to raise money.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:32 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
We were a net energy exporter under trump because his policies allowed us to produce oil and gas cheaply and efficiently.
For literally one of his four years as president.
Why are you so hung up on the president controlling Oil/gasoline prices?
You realize biden could adopt the exact same attitude toward O&G as trump and it would take years to bring things online that went down during covid?
Posted on 3/4/22 at 5:35 pm to Salviati
Oil prices are controlled by the OPEC cartel, really 3 people set them and production rates. All we do is respond.
They intentionally drop prices to destroy our off shore operations and have done so many times.
They intentionally drop prices to destroy our off shore operations and have done so many times.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 6:08 pm to billjamin
quote:
Because they lied to investors for years about getting to a point where they would produce cash.
There were far too many without a positive cash flow operating on borrowed money. Those folks have been weeded out.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 6:25 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Neither does "Biden did that". Especially given all the other reasons O&G companies have to keep doing what they're doing.
I just don’t think it tells the entire story.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 6:50 pm to redstick13
quote:
There were far too many without a positive cash flow operating on borrowed money. Those folks have been weeded out.
Yep and unfortunately everyone in the sector is paying for it right now.
Posted on 3/4/22 at 6:52 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
They are offering 9-10% guaranteed dividends. I would say they are acknowledging the past when attempting to raise money.
Very good point. They have acknowledged it, but it’s still not working because there‘s a lot of pissed off people still and it’s going to take some time for them to feel ok with dumping money that way again. Wall Street bros are some of the most thin skinned people in the world. Their ego won’t let them put the past aside after they got burned. It’ll just take some time.
And on the other hand, those new guaranteed returns are pulling directly away from growth and development which is contracting the bpd increases.
This post was edited on 3/4/22 at 6:53 pm
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