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Message
re: Tropical Storm Colin
Posted on 7/30/10 at 12:18 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/30/10 at 12:18 pm to rds dc
oh.
Its tropical performance this season has been pretty poor. It seems to have underforecasted the last two systems... even Bonnie, which was hard to underforecast. It's done pretty well with steering currents and synoptic patterns (but that's what the GFS is for, so I hope so).
I'll give it at least the rest of the season before really passing judgment, but it's not any better than the old one so far.
Its tropical performance this season has been pretty poor. It seems to have underforecasted the last two systems... even Bonnie, which was hard to underforecast. It's done pretty well with steering currents and synoptic patterns (but that's what the GFS is for, so I hope so).
I'll give it at least the rest of the season before really passing judgment, but it's not any better than the old one so far.
1
Posted on 7/31/10 at 3:48 pm to baytiger
90L has been deactivated but we will probably see 91L coming from the same area in the near future. Storms coming out of the inter-tropical convergence zone are usually slow to develop and it will probably be another 24 - 48 hrs before anything gets going, if anything develops. The models continue to hint at something moving towards the islands and then maybe Fl and Gulf.
Posted on 8/2/10 at 9:27 am to rds dc
91L should shortly be declared a TD.
Posted on 8/2/10 at 2:34 pm to rds dc
Move on...nothing to see here.
Current Status
As of 3PM CDT, Tropical Depression Four is located near 13.2N and 42.7W. This is about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving to the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. The Hurricane Severity Index value is 1, with 0 points attributed to size.
Changes from the Previous Forecast
We have shifted the track about 120 miles to the west after 3 days
Our Forecast
Our forecast takes the depression to the west-northwest at about 15-20 mph for the next 2-3 days. On this track, the system is expected to pass a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday. Thereafter, a track more to the northwest is forecast, taking the system to a position between Bermuda and the southeast coast of the United States on Saturday. Our confidence in the forecast track is average.
We expect the depression to intensify into a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday . However, starting tomorrow, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Therefore, little change in intensity is expected after tomorrow through Saturday. The depression is currently not expected to reach hurricane intensity. The maximum projected Hurricane Severity Index is 3, with 1 point attributed to its size.
Given our forecast, we do not expect any significant impacts to the Lesser Antilles, except for passing showers from possible outer feeder bands. These would arrive late Wednesday and early Thursday.
Other Possibilities
It is possible that the depression will track a little farther to the south of our forecast track. If this were to happen, it could bring heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical storm force to the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday. It is also possible that the system could revert back to a tropical wave. Even if this were to occur, the effects along its track would be the same as if it were a weak tropical storm.
Current Status
As of 3PM CDT, Tropical Depression Four is located near 13.2N and 42.7W. This is about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving to the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. The Hurricane Severity Index value is 1, with 0 points attributed to size.
Changes from the Previous Forecast
We have shifted the track about 120 miles to the west after 3 days
Our Forecast
Our forecast takes the depression to the west-northwest at about 15-20 mph for the next 2-3 days. On this track, the system is expected to pass a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday. Thereafter, a track more to the northwest is forecast, taking the system to a position between Bermuda and the southeast coast of the United States on Saturday. Our confidence in the forecast track is average.
We expect the depression to intensify into a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday . However, starting tomorrow, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Therefore, little change in intensity is expected after tomorrow through Saturday. The depression is currently not expected to reach hurricane intensity. The maximum projected Hurricane Severity Index is 3, with 1 point attributed to its size.
Given our forecast, we do not expect any significant impacts to the Lesser Antilles, except for passing showers from possible outer feeder bands. These would arrive late Wednesday and early Thursday.
Other Possibilities
It is possible that the depression will track a little farther to the south of our forecast track. If this were to happen, it could bring heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical storm force to the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday. It is also possible that the system could revert back to a tropical wave. Even if this were to occur, the effects along its track would be the same as if it were a weak tropical storm.
Posted on 8/2/10 at 7:47 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Move on...nothing to see here.
Pretty much. I think there is a good chance that we will see this travel to the left of the current forecast track but either way it is headed for the shredder.
However, what might be 92L is just coming to life but the 18Z solution is interesting.
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