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re: Geopolitical Analyst: China has 10 yrs left...
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:46 am to Roaad
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:46 am to Roaad
quote:
Also it will be GLOBALLY destabilizing
Only if we don't adjust now and it happens suddenly without a backup. There's a reason companies are moving production out of China.
The US REALLY needs to incentivize investing in Central America for direct and indirect reasons.
2
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:46 am to Powerman
quote:
And the unintended consequences of it were* pretty devastating
*are
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:46 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:And Africa. . .NOW
he US REALLY needs to incentivize investing in Central America for direct and indirect reasons.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:47 am to Roaad
I think it's already happening in Africa, but we wouldn't have nearly the secondary effects there 
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:51 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
The US REALLY needs to incentivize investing in Central America for direct and indirect reasons.
Would be going on a better pace if you know who wasn't in office.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:52 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:And the secondary effects here and in the media.
I think it's already happening in Africa, but we wouldn't have nearly the secondary effects there
"Oh your presence is causing stability in the region?"
"You fricking white savior, colonizer, cis, evil, macho fricks!"
Yeah. . .
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:11 am to ned nederlander
quote:
I think Norway’s 20 year horizon looks just fine with Russia committing economic suicide and Norway stepping in to become Europe’s largest nat gas provider.
Why Russia? Russia is massive and has a tremendous amount or natural resources to sustain them for a very long time.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:13 am to GumboPot
quote:
Why Russia? Russia is massive and has a tremendous amount or natural resources to sustain them for a very long time.
And they interfered with Ukraine joining the EU, ultimately leading to an unprovoked invasion (the "economic suicide" referenced)
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:13 am to GumboPot
Demographics is destiny. Russia’s population is rapidly shrinking because young Russians aren’t having near enough children to maintain replacement.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:19 am to kingbob
What about energy and resources. That seems a lot more important than demographics in terms of sustainability.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:22 am to kingbob
quote:
Demographics is destiny. Russia’s population is rapidly shrinking because young Russians aren’t having near enough children to maintain replacement.
If this were true, Europe would be f’d and Africa would be the future economic Mecca.
This is a lot more complicated than simply demographics.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:23 am to Jack Ruby
quote:
China has 10 yrs left..
Sounds good to me
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:24 am to GumboPot
quote:
What about energy and resources. That seems a lot more important than demographics in terms of sustainability.
a. They killed their market and the substitute market is going to implode
b. They don't have a population to run the equipment (and are very racist and nationalistic so immigration won't work, either)
Russia may become what we envisioned Iraq would be after the invasion. A subject state of the US while we run (and profit from) the oil industry.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:26 am to GumboPot
quote:
If this were true, Europe would be f’d and Africa would be the future economic Mecca.
This is a lot more complicated than simply demographics.
Regardless of wokeism, the world is going to drastically change before we die.
Even if all of these demographic crises cause war, that's going to drastically change the world.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:31 am to SlowFlowPro
By your logic Africa are going to be the big economic winners:
Birth rates:
Birth rates:
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:34 am to GumboPot
quote:They have to have an industrial base, a means to cultivate skilled labor, and stable governments to win, though.
By your logic Africa are going to be the big economic winners:
They have none of that.
Hell, lots of places there don't even have power or running water.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:35 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Regardless of wokeism, the world is going to drastically change before we die. Even if all of these demographic crises cause war, that's going to drastically change the world.
Sure.
My only point is energy and resources play a bigger factor than demographics. The more energy and resources you have and the ability to harness those energy and resources the more inverted your demographic pyramid can be.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:36 am to Jack Ruby
quote:
Mexico is currently cheaper to manufacture in and this will continue.
Mexico doesn't have near the infrastructure and is horribly corrupt. But this guy does make a good point.
Chinese manufacturing is only 2-4% cheaper than domestic. Still, the problem is America has let its manufacturing crumble to nothing, so the investment in bringing it back to viable isn't there yet. Just think what we could have done with all of the money we shipped over to Ukraine. Telling China to frick off and watch that house of cards fall would be beautiful to watch.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:37 am to GumboPot
quote:
By your logic Africa are going to be the big economic winners:
Because declining birth rates will destroy societies doesn't mean increasing birth rates will automatically raise societies.
They could, if they could replicate our culture and institutions. A better guess is if the West and China do decline, Africa will decline even worse (because they will have the population of a developing society without the advanced societies to prop them up until they become advanced).
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:38 am to CAPEX
quote:
Because the entire economy is based on population growth
Every economy is
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