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re: Trump gaining in the polls.
Posted on 7/26/20 at 5:23 pm to Skip Winkman
Posted on 7/26/20 at 5:23 pm to Skip Winkman
quote:
Trump was never behind in the polls, in fact he is probably well ahead of dog face pony soldier
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0
Posted on 7/26/20 at 5:24 pm to AUtigR24
quote:
He'll name Kamala Harris and further secure the black and women vote.
This is very dangerous in the BLM era. Shebama is somewhat infamous for dirtying up brothers (overcharging) as a prosecutor in California. I'm not sure that's an easy sell in 2020.
quote:
They have a good strategy.
"Orange Man Bad" is a slogan, not a strategy. Running out the clock is unlikely to work either.
quote:
he's behind in key States
According to polls that were brutally wrong 4 years ago?
Really?
Posted on 7/26/20 at 5:44 pm to AUtigR24
quote:
I thought polls were fake? Are yours fake or these that show Biden with huge leads?
A poll can show anything. People see the outcome but never look at the data and methods. A huge example is the poll in PA that showed Trump down 5 in PA also showed him getting 19% of the black vote. He won the state in 2016 while getting only 9% of the black vote. So, if their own break downs are correct, and he is 10 percentage points higher with black voters (also higher with hispanics) do think Trump is down 5 points? Also, do you believe the DEM turnout is going to be 9-12 points higher than GOP voters when every single poll shows Trump voters raging to get to the polls and NO enthusiasm for Joe other than he ain’t Trump? If you accept all that, then yeah those polls showing Biden up are accurate.
This post was edited on 7/26/20 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 7/26/20 at 6:31 pm to Ace Midnight
It’s not really true the polls were “brutally wrong” in 2016. They were off by 3.1% points (margin of error). The average for general elections is 4.1 margin of error going back to 1972.
State polls were more off than usual. 5.1 vs 4.1 (avg since 72).
State polls were more off than usual. 5.1 vs 4.1 (avg since 72).
Posted on 7/26/20 at 6:47 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
"Orange Man Bad" is a slogan, not a strategy. Running out the clock is unlikely to work either.
Their strategy is the riots and Covid. Most rational peoples like us can see through the MSM bs but don't be fooled by how many out there believe this is all Trumps fault because all they do is watch CNN at night before bed.
That coupled with securing the black, mexican, and women voters is their strategy.
And of course mail in voter fraud
Texas is an interesting state with nearly 40% latino population and 50% being women
Team Biden will spend a lot of money there
Posted on 7/26/20 at 6:50 pm to mwade91383
quote:
t’s not really true the polls were “brutally wrong” in 2016. They were off by 3.1% points (margin of error). The average for general elections is 4.1 margin of error going back to 1972.
State polls were more off than usual. 5.1 vs 4.1 (avg since 72).
Yep, good point.
He was a 2 or 3 to 1 underdog depending on what polling you use - Not that outrageous of an "upset" considering the slim margins he won by in battleground states and the fact that he lost the popular vote.
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